It is easy to check for everyone. Take my three transactions. Write down the time when the transaction was received by blockchain.info. Add 60 seconds. Check all trades +-5s from BtcE, BitFinex and okCoin.cn. Just like explained on updownbot.bz. Use the CNY/USD exchange rate from my first post. See that the LTC/USD exchange rate was not like shown on the website and that the bets should have won.

And yes I had luck once some days before. But not more than others had. This is not realy related to my case. It just shows a possible motive for updownbot.bz to manipulate. It might also have been a bug in their software but given the response, I doubt that.

Two problems in your theory:
1. There was almost no trade at BitFinex on the LTC/USD market at the time. Which makes it hard to claim that "huge" transactions where used to manipulate the market.
2. Even if there is no takers fee. To make many "huge" transactions. I would certanly have to give everything back for less and in addition pay fees.

Let's say I would have an hero account for this board. Wouldn't it make sence to post here, accusing you of cheating, using my trustworthy account?
There is realy nothing more to admit. And I'm not sure why you are so confident that I have cheated. When there are no traces or any proof. Not even a real explonation how I could have cheated. I can admit that the high number of win transactions may look suspicious. But you can easily see that they are made at the same time, all have a low vlaue and that I'm not the only one who got that lucky. Also I had bad luck at the same time.

I could certanly admit to have cheated just to get some of my BTC back. But I can't stand cheating gambling site owners. This should be a warning for everyone to send BTC to updownbot.bz and other anonymous sites.

A shame you edited your response before I had time to answer. But here for what is left.

A smart guy like you should be able to figure out why all bets are to go up in this situation. 


I'm sorry about that. These where my first transactions made by the multiple bets at the same time tool. I used raw transactions and got the fee wrong. Believe me, it was not that easy to get the change for me, too. But they are far less then 0.1BTC. You tend to over und understate things easily.


That does not even make sence. Why would someone make huge transactions to win one 0.0x BTC bet returning +75% ? This would be insanly stupid. Run the math yourself.


Except he got lucky some days before. In that case you just react like you did with me.


That would indeed solve the issue.

Thing is, I won about 60-70 bets in a row by submitting about 8 bets at a time, like explained before. The numbers might be wrong slightly but thats how I remember it. Which leads to about the same winning streak as you had.

After some time I realised that the LTC/BTC exchange rate is quite constant. Probably due to some automatic arbitrage going on like USD -> BTC -> LTC -> USD. The conclusion is that the LTC exchange rate must follow the BTC trend very quickly. This knowladge combined with the sudden down fall of BTC last week made it for me. But as I mentioned before. This strategy did not work out after all. And it was not more than about 10 wins in a row. Wich might be just plain luck.

My guess is that he increased the min bet to 0.1btc and started cheating at the same time because I won 144 bets in a row.

EDIT: I just counted the number of bets posted by updownbot.bz above and it is far less than 144. I did not count how many bets I actualy won in a row back then.

Hey,

Well, 144 wins in a row look suspicios indeed. But what happened is much less specatacular than one might think. Your page just stopped acceptiing bets above 0.003BTC even though the page displayed a mex bet much higher than that. So I figured it would be ok to submit multiple bets at the same time to keep the game going. A bet in the range of 0.003-0.001 BTC is just not very thrilling. And I made sure not to bet more than the maximum bet at a time displayed on your page. Given that multiplayer it is still a nice streak but you must admit that the LTC/USD exchange rate was quite predicatble last week. And I lost far more than what I won.
However, when your page suddenly started to accept higher bets again I stopped submiting multiple bets at once and continued to bet normaly. But this time everything felt fishy and not that related to the actual exchange rate. Thats why I decided to check the outcome of bets on your site. To do this I wrote a simple app to fetch the trade log from BtcE, BitFinex and okCoin.cn (like explained on your site) and compared this to the three bets I posted above. And there is no doubt that the bet outcome is not backed by marked data.
There are better ways to cheat on undownbot.bz than actually betting for sure. The service is using a windows server running IIS and PHP. And the server time is off by a couple of houres. Which may also affect accuracy of bet outcomes. How do you evaluate the current exchange rate if you don't know the current time? The displayed exchange rates for LTC/USD and BTC/USD are also off by a tiny fraction. I think the service is not always using the latest CNY/USD exchange rate.

To my "real identity". I'm not a board kind of guy. In face, I do not even have an account on any other board except internal company boards. But this board is the only way to get in touch with you. Feel free to reveal my "real board identity" if you like. I think you are just trying to discredit me because you cheated on those bets.

I could beat my self that I bet on this site dispite the full anonymity of the sites owner. The only contact is a bitmessage address, wich is inactive. I've lost a fair amount of money to this possible scam. The following transactions clearly won given the trade logs of the individual exchanges at the time:

445b4932e1ee35217f4bb2928e0c58663388296b59f04b33ea2178f3278d1c86
1192a5e5c5bbc306c28022b749032d35f52f3c52c121bced717e99637a2d3544
3a29baa932252b897321ae168830e78e59970e611326c2b69efad602b932e870

Trade logs show that the exchange rate was not even close to the outcome value. And it is quite remarkable that the "result" in all cases is very very close to the start value. I would love to see wich individual trades where responsible for the outcome. Or otherwise a refund. Cny/usd exchange rate is 6.144 right now.