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Re: Is classic dead at last?
by
raid_n
on 24/03/2016, 14:43:19 UTC
BTCLovingDude,

you should really look more into how bitcoin and the blockchain works.
The "classic" blocks are within the blockchain as they adhere to the same consensus rules set forth by core.

To give you a bad analogy:

Think of clients as TVs that receive a data stream and decode it. Now if your TV can only decode material in say 720p and it receives a 4k stream it will not be able to display it.

Similarly full nodes perceive new blocks and validate them based on the rules set forth in their programming.
To complete the analogy a core node would understand and be able to decode a 720p signal regardless of whether it came from a "core" sender or a "classic" sender.
However the moment it receives a 4k signal it will not accept it and say it is invalid, only other classic nodes would consider the 4k signal valid.

In effect the network (as it is decentralized each node - or keeping with the analogy, every TV set - makes the decision for itself) would fork as a part of the clients say "this block (4k signal) is valid" while others say "this block is garbage that I don't recognize".

Here is the important part: As long as a classic node does not mine a large block (e.g. send the 4k signal) but sticks to what everyone understands (720p) it will be accepted by both types of clients.
By labelling mined blocks as "classic", miners are showing that they support these changes in the underlying consensus rules (such as bigger blocks).

The idea is to find agreement beforehand so that ideally everyone, or at least a vast majority of miners and full nodes, accept the changes by running a client that supports them.

By the way it is not 6 but > 60 blocks or else it would be 0.6%










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Re: Time to say goodbye
by
raid_n
on 18/01/2015, 02:43:52 UTC
I was trying to rephrase something I had meant to post for a while yet I feel it will be lost to many in this sub.
Instead I want to thank you for the insights I gained into the early days by reading some of your old posts.

Good luck on your journey, in the end we always realize that it was the road that mattered.
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Re: Stamp hot wallet problem?
by
raid_n
on 05/01/2015, 15:16:28 UTC
Satoshi created a currency unit without a central party being necessary to prevent unit duplication.

And you want to tell me it's impossible for centralized exchanges to build a clever system that enables users to have some form of control over their trading funds? Well, perhaps it is.


The fact that it is centralized means that if the server(s) is in fact potentially compromised of course they can't let you control your funds because how should they know if your actions are legitimate or not?

Cold storage should ensure that in a worst case scenario most of the exchange funds are safe.

This incident will reveal if bitstamp can be trusted further down the road. We can expect a more thorough audit and if indeed only the hot wallet was compromised and users who lost funds are reimbursed
it will be a good thing not only for stamp but for confidence in bitcoin in general.

Now if that does not happen we can expect gloomy times ahead.


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Re: Stamp hot wallet problem?
by
raid_n
on 05/01/2015, 14:57:07 UTC
there are exchanges like bitalo.com out there that do not take control over the coins at all but have user-side generated keys that are stored only in encrypted form on the servers, combined with full multi-signature wallets and backup transaction so that you can get the coins back, even when the site loses all data or goes completely offline.

People just need to use it :-)


Good initiative, thanks for showing us that this can work, and illustrating how irresponsible and borderline criminal established exchanges are for not adopting such practices.

Think about what Bitstamp have been working on instead: A fancy chart UI for trading and an Android app. Meanwhile, they can't even ensure or prove that cold wallet coins aren't lost.

You do realize that a multi-signature address on an exchange involves other issues that greatly impact usability as an exchange
Multi signature means both you and the exchange need to agree for funds to be spent. If the exchange is compromised in a way that does not let them use their own keys your funds will still be stuck.

Multi-sig cold storage on exchanges would be a neat feature for added trust but it would make a lot of things more complicated (try filling up a hot wallet from cold storage if you require the signatures from different users. You'd need a whole new scheme where a part of the cold wallet is still owned by the exchange which kind of defeats the whole point).

The bottom line is that if you want to be able to make fast trades in both directions (usd <-> btc)  you will have to place trust in the system to some degree because the blockchain can't help you here.

I would actually argue that currently for the majority of users it is best that an exchange handles their funds rather than sharing that responsibility (if you lose your key(s) for a multisig address on an exchange the funds are basically gone).

Transparency on how cold storage is implemented however is of prime importance. We'll see what bitstamp has to say soon and if they have done their job remotely well the damage should be minimal.

Btw it is clear that people can't withdraw if the hot wallet might be compromised. If I were running the exchange that would be my first reaction too. Stop all movements of funds until it is clear what is safe and what is not.

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Re: Effect of negative difficulty change on BTC price
by
raid_n
on 28/11/2014, 13:18:22 UTC
This becomes nitpicking, but OK.

Consider the fixed group of people who will mine "before" and "after" the difficulty drop.  Let X be a randomly chosen miner in that group.

For some choice X (say, Alice), the production will maybe increase, but for another choice of X (say, Bob), the production has to decrease.

Somebody has to switch of mining equipment to have the difficulty go down, otherwise it wouldn't go down.  

A miner is an entity that is hashing in an attempt to find a block and he is spending resources to hash.
If you treat Bob as two entities (Bob and Bob' where Bob keeps mining while Bob' quits) your problem reduces down to miners that keep mining and miners that quit.

A miner (or part of a miner) that quits gets 0 while spending 0 resources while the others spend the same amount of resources for a larger share (basically the amount of bitcoins earned by the now stopped miner is distributed proportionately to the hashrate over all remaining miners).

The set of miners that stopped mining should not be a part of the group you want to sample because they are doing nothing.
Like I said before I can create an infinitely large group of non-miners and they have 0 effect on the bitcoin network.
Including them in any calculation on miners is incorrect because you are altering the total number of miners by including non-miners.

What you are trying to do is include non-miners (well miners that stopped) in the set of miners.

[edit] by the way I am totally ignoring the fact that difficulty lags behind hashrate changes and that hashrate is not fixed so the actual model is more complicated but overall it more or less follows the described mechanism.

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Re: Effect of negative difficulty change on BTC price
by
raid_n
on 28/11/2014, 11:12:57 UTC

The *average miner* now still mines 1/10 (8 at 1/8 and 2 at 0), but spends only 1.6 (8 at 2, and 2 at 0).

So the average miner mines the same, and spends less.


Here is your conceptual mistake. Using an arithmetic mean makes no sense here because you want to look at the individual miner and you do not want to include miners that are not mining)
Bob and Alice are still mining by spending 2 resources so they spend exactly the same as before but receive more.
Satoshi is no longer mining so he is spending 0 resources and receives no more coins (not that he needs them ;-) )

You are basically taking satoshi and adding him to your mining calculation which logically makes no sense.

[edit] do you see the problem in your assumption? I can add an infinite set of miners that do not mine (does not affect mining at all) and it would make your average miner spend close to 0...
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Re: Effect of negative difficulty change on BTC price
by
raid_n
on 28/11/2014, 10:53:59 UTC

Miners will not "mine more at the same expense".  They will mine the same thing at less expense.


Individually a miner will mine more at the same expense ( a drop in hashrate that leads to a drop in difficulty means your individual share of the overall hashrate increases, hence you are more likely to find a block. In terms of pooled mining it effectively means you see a higher income in btc paid out by the pool for your provided hashrate).

Overall however (all of them combined) miners will use less resources to produce the same amount of blocks (given that the hashrate then goes into a stable state where difficulty does not change).

Your statement is only true if you regard the entire network of miners.
It does not make sense if you think about it. If 10 people share the production of something equally everyone gets  1/10th.
If 2 leave (drop in difficulty due to drop in hashrate) the product is shared between 8 and not 10.
If the amount produced stays the same regardless of how many are contributing (this is where bitcoin uses difficulty to adjust that production) the remaining 8 will get a larger share.

Obviously if leaving also means stopping your input of resources so overall the production cost sinks by the amount of resources you stopped supplying.
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Re: Effect of negative difficulty change on BTC price
by
raid_n
on 27/11/2014, 15:48:01 UTC
If the total network hashrate is 277 Petahashes and stays constant, won't they produce 3600 coins faster at a difficulty of 39 bln than they would at 40 bln?

The difficulty re-targets after 2016 blocks.
Simply put if the hashrate is higher than anticipated more blocks are found in a shorter time so difficulty increases to compensate for that.
If the hashrate drops it takes longer for the 2016 blocks to be found and difficulty decreases after the next re-target to compensate.

Difficulty adjustment is slow so it can lag behind hashrate changes.

[edit] To clarify. Think in terms of the time it takes to find blocks and not the amount of bitcoins found.
If your hashrate increases you will find blocks faster than anticipated so the 2016 blocks until the re-target are found ahead of schedule.
The protocol will then increase the difficulty so if the hashrate does not increase again the timing should be roughly on target

[edit2] to consistently create blocks faster than anticipated the hashrate has to keep increasing.
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Re: Difficulty going down
by
raid_n
on 21/11/2014, 13:06:02 UTC
i bet to differ. a difficulty drop will entice more miners to switch on redundant rigs, putting more BTC into the market, thus, having effect on price.

A difficulty drop means miners were already shut off to begin with. The only way more bitcoin come into the market than expected is if the hashrate increases again (as the difficulty re-target will lag behind)
(you are assuming the difficulty adjustment overshoots but it may be accurate enough that no new miners enter)

BTC price is largely commanded by market demand, and with lower difficulty, market demand to purchase BTC goes down - as does price.

I would not subscribe to that generalization.
When mining profitability goes up a lot demand to purchase BTC should go down. Difficulty can drop and yet still mining may remain unprofitable enough for demand to be mostly unaffected.
[edit] just to be clear, that is one factor in a complex system. When mining profitability goes up it will most likely be to external factors that also strongly influence demand

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Re: 13,500,000 coins passed
by
raid_n
on 21/11/2014, 10:39:36 UTC
There's a limit on the price not least because too much electricity would be used to mine the coins.

i.e. If BTC were to go to $500,000 in this era it would cause a catastrophic mining bubble:

   $500,000 x 25 = $12,500,000 per block = $75,000,000 per hour

   $75 million per hour would drive the mining to attempt to use 675 GW.  This is about 30% of all the power generated on the planet.

Ref: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=518111.msg8674306#msg8674306

That calculation is only valid for a stable state and assumes that mining equipment costs nothing.

If my estimates are correct and if bitcoin were to be valued at 100k USD a coin the calculations for energy consumption for this era dictate mining equipment
roughly valued at 40 Billion USD to be able to consume that much power.

I agree that at too high a valuation a "catastrophic mining bubble" will ensue but initially not in regards to energy consumption.
First we would see insane investments into mining equipment and only then will energy consumption catch up.
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
raid_n
on 06/11/2014, 13:05:50 UTC
I'm only trying to point out that people should avoid adopting a black or white stance on bitcoin.
It is not an all-or-nothing thing where either bitcoin succeeds or some other alt does but they do not want to accept the possibility of co-existence.
Unfortunately for your desires, reality does not cooperate with that position.

Money is an all-or-nothing proposition because of opportunity cost.

Every Bitcoin one holds is held at the exclusion of every other possible use for that money, especially other currencies.

The act of holding Freicoin instead of Bitcoin has a calculable cost associated with that action.

If the benefits of holding Freicoin do not exceed that cost, then nobody will hold Freicoin.

When we're talking about the opportunity costs associated with currencies, then it's even worse for small currencies.

The opportunity costs associated with not holding the largest currency increase greater-than-linearly based on the relative difference in adoption between the two currencies.



By your logic shouldn't we already have a single global currency because that is where we would logically converge to?

"Every Bitcoin one holds is held at the exclusion of every other possible use for that money, especially other currencies."

Such is the nature of speculation. You believe currency x will be worth more in the future than currency y hence you hold x instead of y.
The thing is there is no guarantee for this and over time outlooks can change.

I personally think it is likely bitcoin will be worth more in the future, hence I have a few.
But do I know this for certain? No. which is why I am not "all in". Do you know for a fact that bitcoin will always be number 1? Can you guarantee that ripple or ether or nxt, for some obscure and unfathomable reason does not outgrow bitcoin and appears to be more valuable for a majority of people?

[edit]

What I think is that you are implying the convergence to a monopoly, a single globally accepted digital currency.
I don't think it is in the nature of humanity to agree. There will always be people wanting something else
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
raid_n
on 06/11/2014, 12:46:18 UTC

You can both feel free to invest in Freicoin, I'll stick with bitcoin as is thank you very much.


I'm only trying to point out that people should avoid adopting a black or white stance on bitcoin.
It is not an all-or-nothing thing where either bitcoin succeeds or some other alt does but they do not want to accept the possibility of co-existence.

Ask two different people a question and you might get three different answers Wink.

I can both believe in the success of bitcoin and the existence of several successful altcoins.

Either way I'm sure there are exciting job opportunities in the field for years to come so my outlook is bright even if I am not heavily invested

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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
raid_n
on 06/11/2014, 10:45:45 UTC
lmao those are not respectable market cap... $100m? lmao..... this must be comedy hour on bitcointalk Smiley

If you already have your mind set on what you want to believe that is your thing.

I see a future where cryptocurrencies are used for all kinds of things, can be traded on p2p exchanges (a working algorithm for exchanging different cryptocurrencies that are based on blochchains exists)
and there are different coins for different usage scenarios.
An MMO could base its ingame currency on a cryptocurrency and in that community it makes sense to use it. Why would you want or need bitcoin for this, especially if you can easily exchange one for the other on exchanges.

But you go on believing that bitcoin will reach world dominance.
I simply find it a very narrow vision of the future
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
raid_n
on 06/11/2014, 09:56:55 UTC
Arguments on the network effect only work to a certain degree. An analogy would be to claim that something like Facebook or Google will be the sole existing service simply because it has the biggest network.

Alt coins need to offer something pretty good to overcome the network effect of bitcoin. So far, they don't. And with sidechains on the horizon, it's possible "real" altcoins never will.

The irony is that they don't. Or would you honestly claim that for Litecoin there is any real improvement.
All it takes is regional acceptance on a larger level to make a coin relevant for people in that area.

We can argue all we want about if, in the long term, these alts have merit but the reality is that they exist and some have quite respectable market caps for offering very little innovation.
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
raid_n
on 06/11/2014, 09:12:15 UTC
What you say may be true. But bitcoin's value proposition lies in those few lines of code. And that is why they will never be changed.

Bitcoin was meant to be an e-payment method (decentralized, trutless, etc.).  A fixed bitcoin supply is not necessary for that goal.  Indeed, bitcoin is being used in that role, in spite of still having 10%/year inflation (and even higher in the past).  And dollars and euros work fine as payment methods, in spite of their "horrendous" 1-2%/year inflation rate.

Thus, the argument that "raising the emission limit would destroy the value of bitcoin" does not sound convincing.  Hoarders would be very unhappy, of course.  Miners, however, may someday find it advantageous, especially by the time they are expected do depend on transaction fees instead of block rewards.  Block reward is steady and predictable, whereas fees depend on transaction volume -- which will probably shrink substantially if fees became mandatory.   People who use bitcoin for payments may not care, or may prefer block rewards because they provides "free" transactions.

It has been argued that, if some miners tried to change the protocol, the rest of the network would stick to the old one.  However, this correction mechanism has never been tested, and it seems difficult to predict what would happen, in all possible scenarios.  (After all, it was "proved", with the same certainty, that altcoins would die as soon as they were born.)  What if those "some miners" had 70% of the hash rate?  What if a large subset of the users became convinced that the change was necessary for the health of the network, or got some immediate benefit from it (such as no-fee transactions)? What if payment processors and merchants accepted only the "new" bitcoin?  

(By the way, some bitcoiners seem to be trying to convince people to adopt bitcoin by telling them that money sucks.  I sense a problem with that marketing strategy: it seems that many people have used money sometime in their lives, and may even have enjoyed the experience -- unlikely as that may sound.  Wink)

I have to side with Jorge here. It is unlikely that coin emission will change in recent times but it is not impossible.
Ultimately you cannot enforce what rules people subscribe to. The mere existence of altcoins proves that multiple rule sets can concurrently exist.
And no one should fool themselves that only one coin will ever be accepted by retailers. If it is trivial to integrate bitcoin, it is trivial to integrate other coins.

The proposition that only bitcoin can and will survive comes from selfish motives. You only need to believe in that if you want its value to be extremely high.
There is enough room for multiple cryptocurrencies and they can and will come and go as technology changes.

Does it really matter if I pay something in btc, ltc, doge, nxt or ether? If the design and security of the protocol is sound (which I am not advocating here for many of the so called bitcoin 2.0 alts, the verdict is still open) and enough people use and accept it it is "good enough".

Arguments on the network effect only work to a certain degree. An analogy would be to claim that something like Facebook or Google will be the sole existing service simply because it has the biggest network.



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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
raid_n
on 05/11/2014, 23:03:45 UTC
I'm sorry if I have to break it for you guys but there is no "math" that limits the number of bitcoins.
You need to stop thinking about bitcoin as some mathematical absolute that has been discovered by satoshi.
It is more or less just a statement made in code that everyone agrees with.

You know what you're proposing is utterly wrong right?
Economics 101:
-What gives money it's "power"?
-The "agreement" between 2 or more individuals/entities/countries etc to ACCEPT a commodity as money.

To "break it down" for you, this is as simple as you and me having an agreement that from now on we will be using Euros or Zimbabwean dollars for our transactions. This is what powers the grid. The more we agree to do so - the greater the "power".

Now, there's a glitch. *IF* one of the participants decides to forfeit / steal / type more money, the agreement is invalid. You know what they say right? Whenever there's money involved, there's greed as well.

THIS is what Bitcoin is. The ability of Random Matrix Math to solve the human greed factor. The flaw is not the money. It's US.



I have no idea what you are trying to tell me here.

People often suggest there is a greater "Math" behind why bitcoin is limited in supply.
Basically it is a few lines of code in the protocol an the fact that the majority of miners and users follow that protocol.
It is horribly trivial to change the supply of bitcoin to an arbitrary amount if there was enough backing by the community for it.

Saying it is impossible to change is having a fundamental misunderstanding of how or why bitcoin works
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
raid_n
on 05/11/2014, 22:12:54 UTC
Math is limitless, that's the beauty of it.  Unlike Bitcoin's inflation, which is algorithmically predetermined, fiat inflation can be adjusted as needed.

I also can't tell you how many BTC will exist on July 17, 2017.
Learn how Bitcoin works Smiley

I'm pretty sure I know how it works.  You may not be able to predict the exact number, but the math restricts it to a pretty small range.  I'm pretty sure that no such math exists for CNY.

Inflation is never needed.  It is a tax that, for all intents and purposes, is paid only by the poor.

EDIT: Hey, notice how I was able to make my point w/o including a picture of ponies?  You should strive to emulate that kind of self-restraint Wink


I'm sorry if I have to break it for you guys but there is no "math" that limits the number of bitcoins.
You need to stop thinking about bitcoin as some mathematical absolute that has been discovered by satoshi.
It is more or less just a statement made in code that everyone agrees with.
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Re: The negative effect of mining farms
by
raid_n
on 01/11/2014, 09:46:55 UTC

Yeah you're not telling me anything.

Just because its decentralized doesn't mean it can't have price stability.

[snip]

To be honest I do not care what you think about bitcoin or what solutions you advocate for an ideal form of money (http://paulgrignon.netfirms.com/MoneyasDebt/MAD2014/solution.htm , this is you right?)
Bitcoin is not forced onto you and you probably do not see the advantages of an open, decentralized system where ownership of abstract units is recorded.
It is an algorithmic construct and not some monetary policy.

Muse all you want on how to create an ideal form of money, in the meantime technology will advance and do its own thing.
It is kind of like the legal system trying to figure out how to deal with intellectual property in the digital age while p2p filesharing as a technology already exists and evolves.
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Re: The negative effect of mining farms
by
raid_n
on 31/10/2014, 17:33:25 UTC
Bitcoin is not currency its a digital collectible. It is the equivalent of a digital baseball card. A lot of people around here dont see that as a problem, but if your goal is mass adoption or price stability it's a massive problem.    

Your analogy makes no sense to me. If you compare bitcoin to a government backed currency whose use they enforce then yes, it is probably harder to convince someone why they should use it.
Either you want massive external control and intervention (then you might get your stability and possibly adoption) or you want something decentralized and have to accept that your control options are limited.

Value always lies in the eye of the beholder so although you may think your precious paper bill of legal tender from country a is worth x, it is only because the current circumstances make you (and others) believe so.
Just look at extreme situations such as natural disasters etc. Suddenly your currency might be nothing more than a piece of paper, a collectible, yet that bottle of fresh water becomes a desirable trade good.

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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
raid_n
on 31/10/2014, 11:33:05 UTC

according to KNC, the mining cost of bitcoin is significantly below $400, i think it's around $170 per coin and they are trying hard to mine more and dump more

KNC 3T miner at 1710 Watts: $5995 (of cause the cost of manufacture is under $3000)
mine 1 bitcoin: 3.412 week, Power Cost: $98
let's say you mine 50 bitcoins and stop mining, cost per coin: $158

Except mining 50 bitcoins with that device would take 170 weeks (or about 3 years) at the current difficulty...and we all know the difficulty won't go up for the next 3 years right?

Idiotic....the mining cost of a single bitcoin is far beyond the btc/usd exchange price right now.



I agree, hashrate increases have slowed significantly and may even stop shortly which is a huge tell that we are very near cost of production, if not already below. The last time this happened marked the long term bottom.

Forward sales of mined coins may have even artificially depressed prices 'ahead' of schedule by bringing inflationary effects forward in time. At a price point lower than the forward sale though the hedged miners switch from natural shorts to floor-setting determined buyers, as they can make guaranteed profits buying at market and selling at their hedged price.

Tell me, nasterxy, why are you not running a giant mining farm and making huge profits?