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Now Year-End is almost upon us, it's time to draw conclusions on 2020 and Armstrong's predictions in general. This is of course with reservation that in the last few days of 2020 there won't be full-blown war with Iran or that North-Korea launches a nuclear attack on Seoul of something else completely unexpected happens.
Conclusion
After all these failed predictions, and I didn't even mentioned Armstrong totally missing the bull in Gold ("going below $1000"; "has a $1700 ceiling"), Bitcoin and Oil, why would any serious trader or investor put any faith in Armstrong, a guy that can't even find a publisher to print enough copies of his books, even though he could easily do payments in advance from all the subscription money he rakes in every day.
Armstrong also underestimated and downplayed 2020's most significant event: the COVID pandemic; and then sequentially was too impatient to wait 9 months for effective vaccins, despite a total hammering of health care systems worldwide and himself being in the vulnerable elderly group.
And no market, whether it's the S&P 500, or Gold, or Bonds, or the NYSE Composite, or Commodities, etc, had a longer term trend change at his major 2020 ECM turning point (looking at current year-end charts). Maybe that's why Armstrong couldn't explain beforehand what the 2020 ECM turning point would mean... and he ironically still can't explain it.
Maybe Armstrong should rename his documentary:
Conclusion
After all these failed predictions, and I didn't even mentioned Armstrong totally missing the bull in Gold ("going below $1000"; "has a $1700 ceiling"), Bitcoin and Oil, why would any serious trader or investor put any faith in Armstrong, a guy that can't even find a publisher to print enough copies of his books, even though he could easily do payments in advance from all the subscription money he rakes in every day.
Armstrong also underestimated and downplayed 2020's most significant event: the COVID pandemic; and then sequentially was too impatient to wait 9 months for effective vaccins, despite a total hammering of health care systems worldwide and himself being in the vulnerable elderly group.
And no market, whether it's the S&P 500, or Gold, or Bonds, or the NYSE Composite, or Commodities, etc, had a longer term trend change at his major 2020 ECM turning point (looking at current year-end charts). Maybe that's why Armstrong couldn't explain beforehand what the 2020 ECM turning point would mean... and he ironically still can't explain it.
Maybe Armstrong should rename his documentary:
Being wrong on the stock market for months on end; Armstrong is also still making wrong calls on gold I read on Reddit:
[/quote]Posted byu/gox_happens
1 hour ago
Gold for the Close of 2nd Quarter
crash6363
35 minutes ago
Im not a gold buy and have never traded it but remember a few months back on the private blog when he said gold wasn't ready for "Prime Time" and the ceiling was $1700? Fun time its now at $1808
YZ787
6 minutes ago
I remember that exact quote[/quote]
[/quote]Posted byu/gox_happens
1 hour ago
Gold for the Close of 2nd Quarter
crash6363
35 minutes ago
Im not a gold buy and have never traded it but remember a few months back on the private blog when he said gold wasn't ready for "Prime Time" and the ceiling was $1700? Fun time its now at $1808
YZ787
6 minutes ago
I remember that exact quote[/quote]
Reddit users are absolutely furious at Armstrong:
Quote
Posted by u/Slide-Murky
11 hours ago
I give up. Time to buy.
I’m not listening to him anymore. I have lost respect. I missed too much of this rally. I have come to the conclusion with interest rates at zero stocks will only go up. There is just no where else for capital to go.
crash6363
3 hours ago
It was the same for me, I shorted the market thought out April and the start of May listening to Armstrong. In Mid-May I went long and have made £7000 since however I did lose £3k listening to Armstrong so I’m £4K up.
He goes on about all his amazing forecasts and how he is a legendary trader but he is none of these things the Corona virus has exposed him as just another salesman trading of lies of making great calls in the past.
Just a few weeks ago in a interview he claimed to have called the low and the rally
YZ787
11 hours ago
Earnings season is coming up and July I think tends to be an optimistic month. The only thing that concerns me is the left seems set on ruining optimism on the economy and market to remove the current president at whatever cost heading into November. I can’t keep track of what the current MA call is at the moment but it’ll either crash down or up. I think tech stocks are probably not going to retest the lows just because this second wave could be different from the first which was just an overall sell off. I give the investors more credit in learning from the first round. This is all opinion though. Good luck!
postjosh
4 hours ago
i have to admit i'm surprised about how badly martin missed here and that he hasn't owned up to it. he also seems to have not foreseen the current uptrend in the euro. i'm sitting on the sidelines for now but good luck to you.
11 hours ago
I give up. Time to buy.
I’m not listening to him anymore. I have lost respect. I missed too much of this rally. I have come to the conclusion with interest rates at zero stocks will only go up. There is just no where else for capital to go.
crash6363
3 hours ago
It was the same for me, I shorted the market thought out April and the start of May listening to Armstrong. In Mid-May I went long and have made £7000 since however I did lose £3k listening to Armstrong so I’m £4K up.
He goes on about all his amazing forecasts and how he is a legendary trader but he is none of these things the Corona virus has exposed him as just another salesman trading of lies of making great calls in the past.
Just a few weeks ago in a interview he claimed to have called the low and the rally
YZ787
11 hours ago
Earnings season is coming up and July I think tends to be an optimistic month. The only thing that concerns me is the left seems set on ruining optimism on the economy and market to remove the current president at whatever cost heading into November. I can’t keep track of what the current MA call is at the moment but it’ll either crash down or up. I think tech stocks are probably not going to retest the lows just because this second wave could be different from the first which was just an overall sell off. I give the investors more credit in learning from the first round. This is all opinion though. Good luck!
postjosh
4 hours ago
i have to admit i'm surprised about how badly martin missed here and that he hasn't owned up to it. he also seems to have not foreseen the current uptrend in the euro. i'm sitting on the sidelines for now but good luck to you.
Reddit users still not happy:
Quote
diabolicmongoose
2 hours ago
I'm a little disgusted after reading this. I've been a pro-subscriber through this entire mess and neither the computer (nor MA) called for a mid-march bottom followed by a strong rally. I was still really REALLY hoping that he wouldn't sound like a fake, but this is just marketing 101 for him now. I've officially lost confidence in him.
maalox04
1 hour ago
I felt the same way after listening to that interview. That weekly bullish reversal for DJIA does seem legit though
2 hours ago
I'm a little disgusted after reading this. I've been a pro-subscriber through this entire mess and neither the computer (nor MA) called for a mid-march bottom followed by a strong rally. I was still really REALLY hoping that he wouldn't sound like a fake, but this is just marketing 101 for him now. I've officially lost confidence in him.
maalox04
1 hour ago
I felt the same way after listening to that interview. That weekly bullish reversal for DJIA does seem legit though
More claims without evidence... "This interview confers Socrates forecasting the mid-March bottom followed by a strong rally."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong-in-the-media/new-interview-the-mid-march-bottom-and-civil-unrest/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong-in-the-media/new-interview-the-mid-march-bottom-and-civil-unrest/
I found this comment on ZeroHedge about Armstrong pretty entertaining (and accurate):
Quote
Francis Marx 14 hours ago
Armstrong's computer shows a directional change for the markets for the month of July. I would get out if your long.
FlaviusJulianus 12 hours ago
Armstrong said it was June. Now July. Similar to 2018. First July was the market top, then September, finally October in hindsight. Now buy Socrates professional level, 'cuz each market is a separate beast. Euro will crash. Bonds will crash. Gold will crash and slingshot. Dollar will drop as a false move to put everyone offside, then ramp up. His computer is a monkey throwing darts at a spinning board. Every time he calls it wrong (like gold backing off at ~ 1453, 1473, 1560, now 1806 etc.), he says to not listen to him, listen to the computer, for the computer knows all. Wait for his magic levels to be hit. That means either buy and sell higher or trade a reversion. Either way, there is nothing NOW. However life is always--and only-- a series of NOW moments strung together. All one can trade is NOW. If a directional change doesn't pan out, well, it's an inversion. Computer says wild markets predicted for 2021. Does that help you now? There is always an excuse for an incorrect call.
Armstrong's computer shows a directional change for the markets for the month of July. I would get out if your long.
FlaviusJulianus 12 hours ago
Armstrong said it was June. Now July. Similar to 2018. First July was the market top, then September, finally October in hindsight. Now buy Socrates professional level, 'cuz each market is a separate beast. Euro will crash. Bonds will crash. Gold will crash and slingshot. Dollar will drop as a false move to put everyone offside, then ramp up. His computer is a monkey throwing darts at a spinning board. Every time he calls it wrong (like gold backing off at ~ 1453, 1473, 1560, now 1806 etc.), he says to not listen to him, listen to the computer, for the computer knows all. Wait for his magic levels to be hit. That means either buy and sell higher or trade a reversion. Either way, there is nothing NOW. However life is always--and only-- a series of NOW moments strung together. All one can trade is NOW. If a directional change doesn't pan out, well, it's an inversion. Computer says wild markets predicted for 2021. Does that help you now? There is always an excuse for an incorrect call.
More claims without evidence... "This interview confers Socrates forecasting the mid-March bottom followed by a strong rally."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong-in-the-media/new-interview-the-mid-march-bottom-and-civil-unrest/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong-in-the-media/new-interview-the-mid-march-bottom-and-civil-unrest/
This is exactly what I meant by Martin Armstrong begin a shameless conman and financial comedian:
Martin A. Armstrong: convicted felon, shameless conman, schizophrenic crackpot & financial comedian[/b]
On Reddit they are not so happy about Armstrong boasting about pinpointing the March-low:
Quote
r/aec
Posted byu/jz888888
6 hours ago
MA changed forecast again
"This interview confers Socrates forecasting the mid-March bottom followed by a strong rally. Only an advanced computer system capable of viewing every market simultaneously while comparing past patterns, timing, and pricing could make such a forecast. Additionally, the interview discusses how our models pinpointed the beginning of the rising civil unrest that we are currently witnessing on a global scale. This is an organized attempt to reconstruct the world economy. Stay informed."
uh... MA was forecasting an April double bottom, then when it did not happen he said he shall be a 2nd quarter ending quarterly bottom. Now is that a HUGE retract of his words???
HitokiriK
6 hours ago
Can anyone with socrates confirm armstrong's words?
kai0in0sky
2 hours ago
Originally he was forecasting march bottom and 2 days bounce, which ended up being 3 month bounce. I think the reason he said that is because MA never expect DJI could bounce all the way back up to the weekly bullish reversal. (we made so many freaking Cycle inversion on the weekly level, e.g. up up up)
I think the logic is If A happen then B, else C. MA has lot of personal bias when reading from Socrates (Socrates never say double bottom, or i don't know if it capable to)
DJI only selected some minor bullish reversal on both weekly and monthly, which are not strong enough to reverse the downward trend. So given that, it is possible to have a lower low in 4th Qtr. Again, please don't go short unless there is some price action supporting it.
Posted byu/jz888888
6 hours ago
MA changed forecast again
"This interview confers Socrates forecasting the mid-March bottom followed by a strong rally. Only an advanced computer system capable of viewing every market simultaneously while comparing past patterns, timing, and pricing could make such a forecast. Additionally, the interview discusses how our models pinpointed the beginning of the rising civil unrest that we are currently witnessing on a global scale. This is an organized attempt to reconstruct the world economy. Stay informed."
uh... MA was forecasting an April double bottom, then when it did not happen he said he shall be a 2nd quarter ending quarterly bottom. Now is that a HUGE retract of his words???
HitokiriK
6 hours ago
Can anyone with socrates confirm armstrong's words?
kai0in0sky
2 hours ago
Originally he was forecasting march bottom and 2 days bounce, which ended up being 3 month bounce. I think the reason he said that is because MA never expect DJI could bounce all the way back up to the weekly bullish reversal. (we made so many freaking Cycle inversion on the weekly level, e.g. up up up)
I think the logic is If A happen then B, else C. MA has lot of personal bias when reading from Socrates (Socrates never say double bottom, or i don't know if it capable to)
DJI only selected some minor bullish reversal on both weekly and monthly, which are not strong enough to reverse the downward trend. So given that, it is possible to have a lower low in 4th Qtr. Again, please don't go short unless there is some price action supporting it.
Armstrong is an absolute travesty.
After missing a 50% rally off the lows, Armstrong is now playing both the bearish and bullish side again in his latest commentary:
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/sovereign-debt-crisis/the-fed-trying-to-hold-up-the-world/
We will just call the shift "prematurely". Great forecasting as usual Marty!
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/sovereign-debt-crisis/the-fed-trying-to-hold-up-the-world/
Quote
The capital will shift into equities. We need confirming buy signals on our models in the various stock indexes to suggest that the shift is taking place prematurely.
We will just call the shift "prematurely". Great forecasting as usual Marty!
By the way, he is not talking out of both sides of his mouth or making predictions. He gives you the numbers and turning points from the computer and the market shows you what it wants to do.
And the sun doesn't come up every day... wasn't Armstrong in a movie called 'The Forecaster'?
He is useless but correctly called the low?
Anyone who trades using Socrates come to the Facebook group. We have a pretty good crew and growing, none of these professional haters getting in the way.
https://www.facebook.com/groups/154021879088365/ hope to see yous there!
Anyone who trades using Socrates come to the Facebook group. We have a pretty good crew and growing, none of these professional haters getting in the way.
https://www.facebook.com/groups/154021879088365/ hope to see yous there!
Armstrong didn't call the low he said a possible temporary low then following has called for a retest of the of low for the past 40% drop
If he correctly called the low why is it that no Armstrong-subscriber made any money from it?
A correction is possible by the way . But not expecting a deep fall .Martin computer is broken this time.
We had a 50% rally of the lows, and traders are buying way too many calls; anyone with a brain knows that a correction of 5-10% could occur any time... Armstrong is such a genius
They are not happy at all with Armstrong on Reddit:
Quote
r/aec
•Posted byu/diabolicmongoose
2 hours ago
US Share Market Up or Down?
It looks and feels like Martin is being pressured to respond to a lot of angry subscribers. As I'm sure a lot of his subscribers (me included) have lost a lot of money in the last few weeks/months.
With that said, he's finally being definitive with his words, when tasked with the question - "Is a Breakout to the upside possible?".
"Given the fact that we already have unprecedented OUTSIDE-REVERSALS to the downside on a yearly chart which has NEVER taken place since 1792, the real answer is probably no way."
I know he said probably, but still. This is as definitive as he has ever been. Though a slow and steady climb to the upside instead of a breakout would still be in play... So... I guess that gives me nothing concrete to work with at the moment. Thoughts?
•Posted byu/diabolicmongoose
2 hours ago
US Share Market Up or Down?
It looks and feels like Martin is being pressured to respond to a lot of angry subscribers. As I'm sure a lot of his subscribers (me included) have lost a lot of money in the last few weeks/months.
With that said, he's finally being definitive with his words, when tasked with the question - "Is a Breakout to the upside possible?".
"Given the fact that we already have unprecedented OUTSIDE-REVERSALS to the downside on a yearly chart which has NEVER taken place since 1792, the real answer is probably no way."
I know he said probably, but still. This is as definitive as he has ever been. Though a slow and steady climb to the upside instead of a breakout would still be in play... So... I guess that gives me nothing concrete to work with at the moment. Thoughts?
Armstrong is still calling this a false rally and a retest of the march low is still in play, the timing may be off but this information is invaluable. most people have jumped back into the market thinking we are off to new highs.
Gold failed to elect its yearly bearish reversal in 2015 at 1044.5 so based on the reversals it worked out quite nicely as there was no sell signal on the yearly level. You should only be following the reversals, not Armstrong's opinion.
Gold failed to elect its yearly bearish reversal in 2015 at 1044.5 so based on the reversals it worked out quite nicely as there was no sell signal on the yearly level. You should only be following the reversals, not Armstrong's opinion.
You're contradicting yourself here.
Martin is useless when it comes to trading .
He correctly call the low in march .but missed calling the huge rally .
For gold ,he call the 1755 high correctly .a correction into second half for gold means the stock might see some really crazy action ..
Not really true if you read through his blogposts back then:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg54513757#msg54513757
He's kind of suggesting that it could be a temp low, but a real bottom call? He was still looking for lower lows later, and then retests of course. That's not what I would call calling the low.
With Gold he's been wrong even since 2015; and a correction into the second half of the year is also very, very vague.
Just for the record AnonymousCoder will always be remembered as the fool who sold gold against Socrates Yearly Bearish Reversal at the end of December 2015 at 1044.5 which was not elected, that’s like selling the Dow at the end of the year just above its yearly bearish at 15480.
not only did u trade against the yearly bearish reversal you also traded against the ECM Major Turning Point date 2015.75 which gold was crashing into only to rally up into the next ECM Major Turning Point date 2020.05.
the real question is how stupid can you be to actually make this trade?
not only did u trade against the yearly bearish reversal you also traded against the ECM Major Turning Point date 2015.75 which gold was crashing into only to rally up into the next ECM Major Turning Point date 2020.05.
the real question is how stupid can you be to actually make this trade?
Not sure why anyone would care if a retail trader like AnonymousCoder makes a bad trade.
What I do care about is some twat like Armstrong giving bad advice after bad advice while he's stuffing his pockets full of money from other people.
Quote
Posted byu/jonkuok
12 hours ago
20200603 US Share Market June
The NASDAQ Array has shown that June was the target with also a Directional Change due this month. This is 3 months from the low so we are still in a reactionary phase. Note how the strongest targets are September and then November during the elections.
Here we can see that is the NASDAQ exceeds 9750 on a closing basis, it can make a new high and then fail. This is likely if the Dow cannot exceed its Weekly Bullish in the 27000 level. Keep in mind that the low in the NASDAQ was 2002 - not 2009 as was the case in the Dow and S&P500. This is part of this Paradigm Shift and it is warning that this index may peak out as early as 2025.
12 hours ago
20200603 US Share Market June
The NASDAQ Array has shown that June was the target with also a Directional Change due this month. This is 3 months from the low so we are still in a reactionary phase. Note how the strongest targets are September and then November during the elections.
Here we can see that is the NASDAQ exceeds 9750 on a closing basis, it can make a new high and then fail. This is likely if the Dow cannot exceed its Weekly Bullish in the 27000 level. Keep in mind that the low in the NASDAQ was 2002 - not 2009 as was the case in the Dow and S&P500. This is part of this Paradigm Shift and it is warning that this index may peak out as early as 2025.
After missing a whopping 40+% rally of the lows, now Armstrong says that June was always the target. Bravo Marty, amazing forecast as usual!
Dow Jones closed above 27,000. Now what? Is Armstrong suddenly turning bullish, after missing an almost 50% rally of the lows?!?
Quote
24023018477
23 minutes ago
He has been calling for a drop since the start of April, now it is just embarrassing. There are many technical indicators showing the market is overbought a normal 5% + correction should occur in the next few weeks. Armstrong markets blog are so vague and open to interpretation. No one knows what the fuck they mean. Completely pointless.
The Corona Virus has been his Madoff moment and has exposed him for what he is. No doubt he has alot of knowledge and his blogs do provide some useful insight. But when it comes to forecasting and trading he is useless. Being a Permabull during a 11 year bull market has managed to hide some of his sort comings.
23 minutes ago
He has been calling for a drop since the start of April, now it is just embarrassing. There are many technical indicators showing the market is overbought a normal 5% + correction should occur in the next few weeks. Armstrong markets blog are so vague and open to interpretation. No one knows what the fuck they mean. Completely pointless.
The Corona Virus has been his Madoff moment and has exposed him for what he is. No doubt he has alot of knowledge and his blogs do provide some useful insight. But when it comes to forecasting and trading he is useless. Being a Permabull during a 11 year bull market has managed to hide some of his sort comings.
This Reddit-guy is exactly right
Quote
Posted byu/jonkuok
12 hours ago
20200603 US Share Market June
The NASDAQ Array has shown that June was the target with also a Directional Change due this month. This is 3 months from the low so we are still in a reactionary phase. Note how the strongest targets are September and then November during the elections.
Here we can see that is the NASDAQ exceeds 9750 on a closing basis, it can make a new high and then fail. This is likely if the Dow cannot exceed its Weekly Bullish in the 27000 level. Keep in mind that the low in the NASDAQ was 2002 - not 2009 as was the case in the Dow and S&P500. This is part of this Paradigm Shift and it is warning that this index may peak out as early as 2025.
12 hours ago
20200603 US Share Market June
The NASDAQ Array has shown that June was the target with also a Directional Change due this month. This is 3 months from the low so we are still in a reactionary phase. Note how the strongest targets are September and then November during the elections.
Here we can see that is the NASDAQ exceeds 9750 on a closing basis, it can make a new high and then fail. This is likely if the Dow cannot exceed its Weekly Bullish in the 27000 level. Keep in mind that the low in the NASDAQ was 2002 - not 2009 as was the case in the Dow and S&P500. This is part of this Paradigm Shift and it is warning that this index may peak out as early as 2025.
After missing a whopping 40+% rally of the lows, now Armstrong says that June was always the target. Bravo Marty, amazing forecast as usual!
Quote
Posted byu/Viceroy100
14 hours ago
Paradigm shift
'..The Dow is the lagging index which is warning about the constraints on international capital flows that have still impacted the world economy. The NASDAQ has taken the lead and this Paradigm shift in equities will change the blue chips going forward..'
14 hours ago
Paradigm shift
'..The Dow is the lagging index which is warning about the constraints on international capital flows that have still impacted the world economy. The NASDAQ has taken the lead and this Paradigm shift in equities will change the blue chips going forward..'
So tech companies have been outperforming the broader market since 2008; and suddenly NOW Armstrong starts to notice it?!? Awesome analysis Marty! Let's call it a "Paradigm shift in equities", because it give some grandeur feel to stating the obvious.
20200526 Trading vs Investing Share Market
The fact that the NASDAQ elected the Weekly Bullish strongly suggests that the low is in place there.
This certainly means we cannot discount the fact that the March 23rd low in the Dow could hold. That does not negate a retest. Assuming we see a new high this week on Wednesday or Friday, the hypothetical Weekly Bearish Reversal will most likely be generated in the 22900 area. That means that a weekly closing in the Dow below that could very signal the new low or a retest of the low.
The fact that the NASDAQ elected the Weekly Bullish strongly suggests that the low is in place there.
This certainly means we cannot discount the fact that the March 23rd low in the Dow could hold. That does not negate a retest. Assuming we see a new high this week on Wednesday or Friday, the hypothetical Weekly Bearish Reversal will most likely be generated in the 22900 area. That means that a weekly closing in the Dow below that could very signal the new low or a retest of the low.
"Assuming we see a new high this week on Wednesday or Friday"...
I'm sorry, but since today there were new records in the rally of the March lows, what a bunch of bullocks Marty...
Why does he assume all kinds of things. Since the March lows he's been dead wrong, wrong, wrong.
"The fact that the NASDAQ elected the Weekly Bullish strongly suggests that the low is in place there."
Right on, Marty! It's almost a ffing new all time highs. The low might hold!
[/quote]