I have a serious question.  I'm new to crypto.   I saw in 2017 BTC went from 1k to almost 20k and crashed to 3k for the bear cycle.  It finally reached and passed 20k in 2021 (the person who bought at 20K was underwater for 3 years). Was that 20k buyer a dumbass or a genius?  Similarly, is the person who bought at 65K last month a dumbass or a genius?  Thanks.

Does anyone think the mainstream exchanges will freeze retail investors from selling at the top if BTC reaches extreme highs?

I'm fairly new to BTC.  When I bought it BTC was hyped on YT.  Now during this dip I'm seeing YT videos saying we may be in a bear market.  Do they mean bull markets and bear markets happen monthly because that's how often I see peaks and dips on the graph since Jan 2021.  Or do they mean we are in a bear market like 2017 -2020?  How can we be in a bear market the minute all institutions entered the market and when the NYSE is about to register BTC and all the infrastructure is being built for it to become the new gold?  In 2017 we ran up to 40k w no infrastructure or institutional interest.  Its seems to be a different BTC environment now, no?  Nothing like 2017.

Large institutional investors want in on BTC, but can't buy at $60K.  Their belief is that those who bought under $20K were radical.  Those who bought at $20K were brave, but irresponsible.  Those who bought at $40K were smart, prudent and risk adverse.  Those who bought at $60K were the average enlightened retail buyers.  Those who buy up to $100K will be considered late but prudent investors.  Those who buy over $100K will be governments, munis, pensions, ins co's and the like looking for stable returns. 

Optics require institutions to appear "smart."  With BTC in the 40K + range will allow mass adoption by institutions because they can say they bought when it was a smart and prudent time to buy.  This dip is very healthy.  Let the institutions be winners and heroes to their SH's.  Once they are all in, the compressed spring will then be allowed to launch allowing the institutions to be huge winners and heroes as it explodes over $100k.  The next compression will come when the govt, pensions and ins co's want in.  My guess is if BTC quickly shoots well above $100K it will be forced back to $100K (or even the $90k's) in order for govt's, pensions and ins co's to get in so they will look prudent and not late.  Since these will be the last large entities that need to get in, once they are in it should rise unimpeded.   This is just my theory.

 I bought in the mid 50's.  I'm not concerned about being underwater today, but in the ride up there will clearly be frequent predictable 10-20K drops, so I should not hold at $55K.  It may pay to keep trading it up.  Meaning I should next sell at 60K + and buy at 55K then sell at 70k and buy at 60k.  This is a predictable pattern for BTC, no?