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So we're going to $30 "again"? =)
It would be cool if we dropped like this. I wonder if Shroomskit managed to sell at the recent high.
yes, everyone likes a crash (no, really), but I was curious as to what allowed bitcoin to claw it's way back up after massive crashes, why didn't it die? It seems obvious to me now that silk road kept it going, and growing. Silk Road has gone - so what now?
This is a little out of date in some respects, but with recent events it may come back sharply into focus soon. I was curious to see just how much Silk Road was contributing to what was a strong underlying growth trend in Bitcoin price - and the answer seems to support the claims that it was almost entirely responsible (more than I expected, see below).
I doubt there's many people that believe Bitcoin got to the current giddy heights through mass adoption or genuine utility, so the next question is what happens to Bitcoin if the factors driving it up there disappear along with Silk Road?
Correlation != causationI doubt there's many people that believe Bitcoin got to the current giddy heights through mass adoption or genuine utility, so the next question is what happens to Bitcoin if the factors driving it up there disappear along with Silk Road?
As far as I've seen, most people accept already that silk road was an important driver of the demand for bitcoins (outside of speculative bubbles), and so the price, the surprise is just how tight the relationship appears to be.
C'mon, you know it's true really....
This is a little out of date in some respects, but with recent events it may come back sharply into focus soon. I was curious to see just how much Silk Road was contributing to what was a strong underlying growth trend in Bitcoin price - and the answer seems to support the claims that it was almost entirely responsible (more than I expected, see below).
I doubt there's many people that believe Bitcoin got to the current giddy heights through mass adoption or genuine utility, so the next question is what happens to Bitcoin if the factors driving it up there disappear along with Silk Road?
p.s. I recently got all my money out of gox (via the bitcoin route) after being told by them that it would be 5 weeks before I could get the first 1000 euros out, then 20 days per additional 1000. Apologies if this is already widely known, but the more people that know this the better.
I doubt there's many people that believe Bitcoin got to the current giddy heights through mass adoption or genuine utility, so the next question is what happens to Bitcoin if the factors driving it up there disappear along with Silk Road?
p.s. I recently got all my money out of gox (via the bitcoin route) after being told by them that it would be 5 weeks before I could get the first 1000 euros out, then 20 days per additional 1000. Apologies if this is already widely known, but the more people that know this the better.
fears coming, only so many times it can crash back down again before fears going to creep in.
I suspect the litmus test will be when you stop wanting to tell shroomy I told you so, and start wanting to give him a cuddle and a pep talk. Round about now then.
I suspect the litmus test will be when you stop wanting to tell shroomy I told you so, and start wanting to give him a cuddle and a pep talk. Round about now then.
These negative divergences against rises in price have been VERY VERY accurate indicators of moves down:
We have the longest one yet. I'd say the price is really wanting to adjust down but those huge buys with walls changed a bit of the natural movement.
Will be interesting to see what happens.
This one looks like a butt in the process of being hurt by lots of 'whale fire'. Chimes with reality.
Seems important to put this here as well:
2012 reverted (pseudo crashed) to the long term growth trend, it appeared otherwise because it started low, and the peak wasn't very high, so it didn't have far to fall. In terms of its 'anatomy', it was just like 2011, and probably 2013 as well.
2012 reverted (pseudo crashed) to the long term growth trend, it appeared otherwise because it started low, and the peak wasn't very high, so it didn't have far to fall. In terms of its 'anatomy', it was just like 2011, and probably 2013 as well.
If anything, I'd imagine it'd fall deeper than 2011 (in which coins sold at $2 instead of a predicted $4 dollar value), because of the higher absolute values concerned and larger number of bitcoin holders who are probably not enthusiasts, and won't have the same faith it'll rise again, causing more depression.
I think it'll rise again though, I'd put money on it....
I think it'll rise again though, I'd put money on it....
There's a difference.
In 2011, when the bubble popped, there was nothing to compare to.
Was it the end of Bitcoin?
Now (almost) everyone is expecting a crash and a new rise, just like 2011.
Maybe, but for the moment I'm betting it'll be a more visceral (and uninformed) response to the deflation that drives the lows. Bids will go back through fear, greed and over-excitement.
I think it's 50:50 that it'll reach single figures.
This bubble seems to be about the same size as the 2011 one -
2011 $30 dollars at peak instead of $2.50ish by my reckoning (12 fold increase on growth estimate )
2013 $266 dollars at peak instead of $21ish (12.5 fold increase).
If anything, I'd imagine it'd fall deeper than 2011 (in which coins sold at $2 instead of a predicted $4 dollar value), because of the higher absolute values concerned and larger number of bitcoin holders who are probably not enthusiasts, and won't have the same faith it'll rise again, causing more depression.
I think it'll rise again though, I'd put money on it....
This bubble seems to be about the same size as the 2011 one -
2011 $30 dollars at peak instead of $2.50ish by my reckoning (12 fold increase on growth estimate )
2013 $266 dollars at peak instead of $21ish (12.5 fold increase).
If anything, I'd imagine it'd fall deeper than 2011 (in which coins sold at $2 instead of a predicted $4 dollar value), because of the higher absolute values concerned and larger number of bitcoin holders who are probably not enthusiasts, and won't have the same faith it'll rise again, causing more depression.
I think it'll rise again though, I'd put money on it....
If only I had done the same. Funny, your numbers matched mine...
Thanks for sharing your observations with selling pressure as I haven't been watching much. I have seen the larger blocks in buys stagnate though.
And look at this double double reverse bottom descending triangle. What do you all think?
it's definitely an emu.
I was debating on which Bird to name it, I like Dropping/Rising Emu. My other choice is A Dropping/Rising Big Bird.
Let's see how this pattern develops and then we can decide. Bookmark this, I think we are on to something.
I just see a vote for "Boobs and Fat Hanging Arm Pattern." I shouldn't count the chickens before the eggs are hatched.
Hmmmm, anything more guys? Perhaps we see how it develops to help the naming.
Rod hull's obese ghost?
yes, I know...off topic.
If only I had done the same. Funny, your numbers matched mine...
Thanks for sharing your observations with selling pressure as I haven't been watching much. I have seen the larger blocks in buys stagnate though.
And look at this double double reverse bottom descending triangle. What do you all think?
it's definitely an emu.
Come on guys, let's be objective about this, here's a chart:
It's clear to me than denial was on its ass and on the way out, but just got up for a final pasting before going down for good. ...fear is coming.
It's clear to me than denial was on its ass and on the way out, but just got up for a final pasting before going down for good. ...fear is coming.
So the Despondancy will be at -50
If you give me $50 for each btc I buy I see no reasons to despond
Yes, I'll give you $50 for every bitcoin you buy, but it's an offer open only for a very (very) short time period...
Come on guys, let's be objective about this, here's a chart:
It's clear to me than denial was on its ass and on the way out, but just got up for a final pasting before going down for good. ...fear is coming.
It's clear to me than denial was on its ass and on the way out, but just got up for a final pasting before going down for good. ...fear is coming.
It appears I've gotten a bad reputation amongst some bulls. I was spreading FUD or whatnot.
Well, now's the time to troll the bears and test their position!
Will you really hold your ground?
The crash of 2012:
Yup, it was all 2011 again.
Except it wasn't.
Now if you'll excuse me, I have bears to troll.
Well, now's the time to troll the bears and test their position!
Will you really hold your ground?
The crash of 2012:
Yup, it was all 2011 again.
Except it wasn't.
Now if you'll excuse me, I have bears to troll.
Nice bit of mischief Frozenlock, and an interesting test...
Using the same range you did, it turns out it was just a little hissy fit, returning to the underlying growth trajectory. It was, in fact, sooooo 2011.
get you bids in to take full advantage of 'despair' ladies and gentlemen...2011 had half price coins during despair (compared to the growth trend value i.e. $2 coins instead of the predicted $4 that subsequently arrived) .
in other words: I played around until it looked good.
Thats the same thing you did yourself a while back with your chart where the y axis was calculated as
y = log(price + C) ; C arbitrarily chosen to make it look "good" (or bad)
You mean make it linear, which is useful for fitting straight lines.
But, it'd make me very happy for you to base your trading decisions on the blockchained.com long term growth estimate...go for it!
Just a random observation from blockchained :
I can't help but to notice 2 things :
* we just touched and bounced off the dotted line - long-term trendline - which has provided good support since day 1.
* "mining factor" is almost at an all time low, and has been dropping like crazy lately.
Thoughts ?
I can't help but to notice 2 things :
* we just touched and bounced off the dotted line - long-term trendline - which has provided good support since day 1.
* "mining factor" is almost at an all time low, and has been dropping like crazy lately.
Thoughts ?
I've been waiting for someone to say that...
edit: or more helpfully - from the blockchained website that produced the long term trendline:
'The fit curve is an exponential percentual to the chart least squares fit - in other words: I played around until it looked good. '
Though, that's not to say it isn't interesting that it did bounce off the line - the power of belief and all that. Unfortunately, it'll only be a short reprieve...
wow, look at all those coins suddenly leave (manipulation) the order book, must all of a sudden be a real sign (manipulation) of confidence in the price going up! hurrah (manipulation)! y'all buy those bytecoins right quick now (manipulation)!
Last chance guys to buy cheap coins.
[]http://cdn.imghack.se/images/90c8641c72042cb4b4476b869ea2ec6e.png[/]
[]http://cdn.imghack.se/images/90c8641c72042cb4b4476b869ea2ec6e.png[/]
just because of your arbitrary hand-draw line ? The volume decrease, nothing tell us there is a new trend
no can do, same old news, down down down....