Hey,

thanks for all comments and confirming my assessments. I haven't seen any post before that made things so clear for me (and others hopefully).

As to my other suspicion: I am now even more convinced that at least some of the non-scam mining device manufacturers already got their products ready and are running them on their own for a while. Honestly: Who wouldn't be tempted to do just that? The devices are already funded through pre-orders, so why ship too early when you can run them on your own creating additional value?
Some of the manufacturers are even showing pictures of their data centers pretending to offer "hosted mining" (e.g. Butterfly, Bitwin).
The existence of those data centers is one of the things I tend to believe.

I am really curious about what might happen later this year. Without an exponential growth of the Bitcoin exchange rate, none of the announced devices will be profitable within just a few months, taking into account the exponential growth in difficulty.

Again, thanks for your help and thanks for keeping me off buying some useless hardware...

softworkz

Perhaps the most profitable BTC business is to "invent" a new miner, create a cool website and accept preorders.

Or really get some engineeers to develop a new ASIC, accept preorders, build the devices and run them in your own data center.
Finally deliver them in the last month they seem profitable for people who cannot do some proper calculation...

softworkz

Thanks a lot for your comments!

@kendog: I mostly agree. After all calculations the Antminer was my top 1 device. But even if I would get a used one for let's say 1500 USD, it doesn't look too good. Do you know the calculations from http://thegenesisblock.com/mining/ ?
I checked their calculation and it seems reasonable. The only thing I am not sue about is the projected difficulty increase - or the question if the dificulty increase from the last months can really be extrapolated into the future like they are doing...

In fact their projected difficulty increase is to steep that even Cointerra, Hashfast or Bitmine would not produce any ROI

@glendall:
1) sure, for litecoin might be an option.  Taking resale revenues into account makes the calculation look much better, especially compared to ASIC miners that may drop to a resale value of $0 quickly. But according to my calculations, the rentability of Litecoin GPU mining may become negative March or April (unless you don't pay for power consumption). Correct?

2) True

3) Would never do that. Especially not paying by bitcoins...

softworkz

Hi,

this is my first post here on the forum.

I have read a lot about btc mining during the last weeks and did quite some research on hardware and return of invest calculations.

As a result I haven't found any mining hardware available at this time - be it new or used - that would generate a reasonable return of invest over any possible timespan.
Some ASIC miner specs may lead to a positive calculation if theses devices would be available today, but all of these devices have deferred delivery dates...

So my question to the experts here: Are my calculations correct?
Or is there any hardware available today - used or new - that I can buy now and that will generate some reasonable profit? (no matter if it's 500 or 5000$)

Thanks for your thoughts,

softworkz