You used to speak a bit more intelligently.   For quite a while now you have been an unreasonable bear . . .

No Wall Street money will ever end up on an exchange.   Well, I can't say none at all . . .   Large bitcoin transactions take place off exchange.   The only money that will come in to the exchanges from Wall Street types will be the small amount it will take to drive the spot price up after they have purchased as much as they can.   Some smaller investors may buy on exchange, but there will not be enough liquidity for some time to satisfy large investors.   What will happen is that as large investors soak up coins from other sources, there will be a general reduction in coins available in the system which will put upwards pressure on the price.

This is all based on speculation anyway.   We are trending up(mid term) with or without a bunch of money from Wall street.

Why so ridiculous?   Someone on Gox sold 10k at once at about $1200.   $12 mil.

The dump failed, as enough ask depth was never built at the lower prices, and only in this market at this price is he able to buy back those 10k+ bitcoins without too much slippage.   When he is done, the pump starts.   I have a feeling that it will be much more successful than the dump.  Oh, and thank you bears for giving him the opportunity     You have just handed him the power to do it all over again.

Why do unintelligent people seem to always be willing hand their wealth to others?

I can't believe the lack of intelligence in this thread . . .

All this low bid depth and low volume is ridiculous.   Dollar volume is massively more important than BTC volume.   Same goes for bid depth.   It would be stupid to think that just because someone dumped 50k coins (worth maybe a bit more than $5M) earlier in the year, that it would happen again.   Anyone with that many coins has a vested interest in the health of bitcoin.   Someone would have to want to damage bitcoin, it just dos not make sense.   The same 50k coins would be worth massively more now, why would someone just dump them?  Bid sums are near or at ATHs.   This is not bearish.   As BTC gains value, volume will drop WAY off.   Compare dollar volume now to dollar volume in the July to October time frame, we have more dollar volume now.   This gives more of an idea of what a slowly increasing market looks like.   Healthy growth, not the stupid parabolic growth.   People scream about low volume, but we don't want the volume of November, it leads to a bubble!  

There does not need to be 10 times the dollar volume to support a price that is 10 times higher.    If BTC were $10k, expecting there to be tens of thousands in BTC volume every day would be ridiculous.   In fact, if there needed to be 10 times the volume to support 10 times the price, eventually we would have to be trading the entire amount of mined bitcoins every day.   If someone were to dump 50k BTC, that would be like someone dumping $38B worth of gold all at once, no market could absorb that without massive slippage.   While it is much easier to see 0.4% of bitcoins dumped all at once than gold, it still becomes less likely as bitcoin gains value.   It would make no sense to dump them all at once, on an exchange, unless for manipulation, and even then, the coins would have to be re bought for less if it was manipulation.   As bitcoin makes gains in usage, there will be less and less volume on the exchanges.   It is possible that eventually there would be almost no volume on the exchanges.   There is no trading when everyone agrees on the price, bitcoins are only bought or sold as they are actually needed.

Those being ridiculously bearish (there are a very few intelligent bear arguments) are just butthurt over the markets reaction over the last few weeks.   Many are only interested in making a quick fiat profit in the volatility that surrounds big drops, so they crave that.    They have no interest in the long term health of bitcoin.   The bears have stopped using their lines on charts to predict the doom of bitcoin because we have broken most of them.   Now the are crying about volume and bid depths.   Wake up people, compare the USD bid depths, and coin ask depths to the crash in the spring.   Compare news, and sentiment, and proliferation, and new projects.   There is not a lot of comparison.  

Make up your own minds, but be very skeptical of those trying to create fear.   Simple math goes a long way.   The lines many have drawn on charts failed to accurately predict recent prices.  They can't take into account the news, in either direction.   When people try to make it sound like they know what they are talking about, be very wary.  That goes for me too, don't take my word for anything, think about it.   If the things someone says begins to play at your emotions, there is a good chance you are being manipulated . . .


Sorry for the long post, but I got home late and spent a few minutes catching up on the thread, and got super frustrated.  I actually have some fiat sitting around because I believe there could still be a drop as the China issue is still not closed, and I am sure there will be a further attempt to cause panic selling if something goes bad there again.   You couldn't make me sell right now for anything though, not even into a "final capitulation".

If/when we have a final capitulation, the price will stay higher than the low we have already had . . .   It's psychology, support has been identified, and everyone will be racing to beat everyone else and buy before we dip to the support.   If it coincides with a series of bad news, then maybe we would dip below, not likely unless a very specific set of circumstances arises.

You say 'movement' like something is actually moving . . .   It's been practically flat for more than five hours.   No one is leading anyone anywhere.

Go look at the run up to $729.   Gox started at 14:55, and the last large buy was at 16:00, it was downhill from there.   BTCC didn't get any volume spike at all until 14:57, and hit it's peak(volume and price) of 4001 at 16:46.   So I fail to see how Gox was following.   In fact, it was definitely not following.   The only possible conclusion from looking at the charts is that BTCC lags Gox by a couple to quite a few minutes.

I think a lot of the volume in China was indeed because of the 0% fees.   We are just seeing it drop back to where it should have been.   You can see the huge volume spike when the 0% fees became effective.

Also, when a market is perfectly balanced, and no one wants to sell or buy, you get no volume.    Of course there is a fiat problem in China.   We know this.   What people are poorly speculating about is that the Chinese will want out so bad they will sell their bitcoins for pennies on the dollar.   This simply does not appear to be the case, why would it be?   Trading will just dry up, and those who want to sell will move to one of the other exchanges.   Getting money wired into China is not an issue.   I am sure many of them will simply sit on their coins, and wait for them to gain value, rather than trade them.   We are days past the event, if their coins were going to flood the market, they would have, and if some of the coins we have seen hit the market are Chinese, the rest of the world has gobbled them up like champs.

This whole China doom thing is getting old.   They were irrelevant a couple months ago, they can be irrelevant again.   What they did help us accomplish was a worldwide media blitz, so, they have done quite enough.   China may no longer be able to provide the support for the prices where they were, but the rest of the world sure can.   1 million accounts on Gox now.   Bid sums near ATHs, which of course is as much manipulated as the ask sums, but it is still telling to see the amounts growing.

We are not out of the woods, but many here are more gloomy than circumstances call for.

You and everyone else . . .  Actually, everyone will probably try to sell early before everyone else does.   It will take quite a bit of push to get to $10k.   Kind of like the latent heat of vaporization, it takes so many dollars to raise to $9,999, then 5 times that much just to get over the $10k hump.

Is that wall actually being eaten, or did he pull 1k of it?

lol, must read more closely

Read as "are" in a bear market until July . . .  

July?   Why would you think that?   If you mean we won't bubble again until then, then I agree.   We spent only 3 months in a bear market after April.  Crash April 10, last low July 4.   I expect this bear market to be shorter.   The development and usefulness of bitcoin is accelerating.

I think the long verification queues were responsible for the very short bear market.   Each should be shorter . . .

I have to admit that I can't put myself in the position of the newbie.   I would think that many would look at charts and realize we won't be shooting back up right away and take their time with being wise, maybe not.   Some will I am sure.   In April we only had the one previous major crash to go on, and I too sold more than I should have, and sat on the sidelines for too long with that cash.

I have a bit of cash still sitting around for just such a case.

It takes a long time for people to get verified on the exchanges.   There are many people still waiting for verification I am sure.   While a retest of the low would be nice for some more coins, I feel there is a lot of buying pressure on the way.   Many will wait until we break from the trend, but many who first saw the price racing through $800 or $900 will probably see this as a great entry price, providing for buying pressure that may not let us dip as far as we hope.  

I don't know, I just feel that we are running out of coins, and the big boys don't want anyone to know about it yet.  Watching the ask volume has been interesting for me, as the coins up high that show up and disappear are all there to provide the illusion that there are a lot of coins up for sale.   Most(all?) of those would be owned by whales.

Just don't risk a significant percentage of your coins on the bet we will retest the lows.   Since it makes sense that BTC will be worth quite a bit more in the future, I don't see lost coins as "only" a few hundred lost.  The biggest mistake I have made was selling quite a few coins in the last crash, waiting for lows to reappear that never did . . .   Right now I am only 10% fiat.

By the way, for those of you who keep screaming about coins moving around the blockchain being a signal of thousands of coins about to hit the market . . .

It's part of the ploy!   You are being manipulated.   The "whales" know that people will see those coins moving and be like "Oh NO!  The sky is falling", and sell.

Not that you can't take advantage of the signs of manipulation, but those coins are not headed to an exchange.  The one time this is not entirely true is on major negative news, and even then, most of the coins moved are just for effect.

Well, to be fair, the adoption curve does not move in a straight line on the exponential scale.   Adoption comes in spurts, so we may lag behind the curve for a while then shoot over it for a while.   Look at early this year, after spending a long time in the $10 range, we shot up to a "stable" $100ish, with a few (not so)minor bumps along the way.  

I don't expect that our growth will always be along the line, and to be sure, at some point we will fall way below the predicted trend and stay there.   People don't find out about and enter bitcoin at a set rate.   Events, etc. accelerate or stagnate the adoption.  

Quick piece of math for you to do, Gox just announced they crossed 1 million customers.   I am sure the other exchanges have at least some customers that never signed up on Gox, so that is a lot of people.   How many coins are out there to go around?   We know how many have been mined, but there are a LOT in cold wallets, lost, etc.   There are not enough coins for those people to have even 4 each probably, and the price would be astronomical once they did.

Short term may still have some bear left in it, but I think the manipulators/accumulators are doing a pretty good job of keeping even reasonable people bearish.   As long as they are successful, it is a bear market.   Take advantage of it, but there is a great risk of getting burned at some point.  

Try not to make it look like you are telling someone they are stupid because they have different opinions than you do . . .

Been here a month and you know something?   Your opinion is worth less than that Doge.  

The bottom is in, not sure how close to it we will get on a retest, but it will be higher.

Really?   They didn't know going in that this happens?   I am very careful to explain the risks and how these things work to my friends.   Not one is less interested now than they were, which is to say most are quite sorry they didn't buy when I told them they should  

Did your friends lose money?

We can see an obvious attempt to ignite panic, but so far it hasn't worked.   It's pretty up in the air right now.  
Chances are it will be lower at some point over the next few days.   Of course bitcoin is notorious for doing what everyone least expects . . .

No question about that.   This is the third time I have been through the whole "bitcoin is dead" thing, so I am used to it.   The thing is, it has to get to the place where these things have only a minor effect on the price, as until it can stop giving up more than half of it's value in a few days, the broad majority will still scoff.   It will come, just growing pains.

Kinda awesome is what it is.   It is where we have to get to before we can move on.   If one exchange can be taken out, and it has this much effect on BTC then we are in deep trouble.   

We have to learn to let individual exchanges do their thing when they go off the deep end . . .

First time was China delivered a crippling blow to bitcoin in China.   Second time they delivered a fatal blow.  

What exactly is going to drive the third leg that matches your fancy lines?