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If the US banned exchanges it would simply push them into offshore locations (which have long since flipped the bird at the US when it comes to banking regulations). In the short term that would be negative, BTC price would likely tank overnight, but longer term BTC would emerge even more powerful and people would point to the failed US action as both a sign of the threat that BTC represents to the established powers and the resiliance of the global network.
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I guess that is my point. The US government makes moves all the time. Move into Iraq. Move into Afghanistan.
Every heard of the website Megaupload? So far, the US hasn't been able to extradite the executives of this website, but they got what they wanted. They were able to shut down Metgaupload without any due process. The USA are a bunch of bullies at all times.
The danger of the exchanges in my mind is that they are vulnerable to being shut down by fearful bankers and governments.
One way around exchanges is to go off the grid. Instead of depending on exchanges, trade Bitcoins for commodities like gold from individuals. How could the government stop that?
Thanks,
TW