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Re: The reason why bitcoin will never *stay* below 5000$ again. PROVE ME WRONG
The only reason of not dropping price below 5000 usd is that mining won't be profitable.
That's not the "only" reason, but a very strong one. The reason #1 is the one I posted.
This is a very weak argument really. No one gives a fuck about mining costs, let alone there being a single cost of mining in the first place. If anything, whatever bitcoin price might be (5k or 1k), there will always be enough miners as mining will always stay profitable at any price. If mining is no longer profitable for some miners, they just leave while the rest picks up the slack instantly taking their share of the reward pie (as the reward remains the same). No offense intended, but honestly, when people bring up this argument about costs of mining, you can be certain that they don't have a clue about how everything works regarding prices, costs, and other economic matters.
As to your claim in the OP, anyone with enough bitcoins (like the mtgox dude) can crash the price to 1k or even below and keep it there as long as he sees fit. There is no reason to prove you wrong as it is just a matter of someone with deep enough pockets, for example, Satoshi and his likes, choosing to dump enough coins. There is nothing to prove here.
No - it is important because people who are heavily involved in mining who happens to have a considerable wealth, will always try to manipulate the price above their profitability rate.
Manipulating up a 100B$ market is easier than manipulating it down.
Simple as that, if you disagree read again because it's a very simple concept.
I'm not going to argue over this point any further as only time will tell and only time can actually prove or disprove your point. Just in case, I hope you are right. However, how much are you going to stake personally that bitcoin won't drop below 5k? Also, explain what you mean by staying below 5k? Are you deliberately playing on words here as staying below 5k is not the same as temporarily dropping below that level? Staying means a certain amount or length of time, so how much exactly, 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, in a row or occasionally?
It looks like OP's claim doesn't check out with reality. 5k may be a new high now.
It's not "will never go again below 5000$".
It's "will never STAY below 5000$".
You will see that you have a very limited timeframe to buy under 5000$ because it will soon go above that threashold again.
So what is your "very limited timeframe" exactly? How long should the price stay below 5k before you finally accept that it STAYS below that threshold ?
Well, this phase is like a Hunger Games for the most altcoins. Almost no shot at winning it, but you never know without even trying 
. I have not really thought about the actual number of the coins that we will daily use in the future. Ten? Twenty? A single one? So many pros and cons that we will have to consider before making that independent decision. Let's enjoy the present and the fact that there are thousands of people who are working on their projects really hard. I personally believe in a shiny future that would not be possible without their tireless effort 
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. I have not really thought about the actual number of the coins that we will daily use in the future. Ten? Twenty? A single one? So many pros and cons that we will have to consider before making that independent decision. Let's enjoy the present and the fact that there are thousands of people who are working on their projects really hard. I personally believe in a shiny future that would not be possible without their tireless effort . From my perspective, we are not going to use more than a dozen for anything which is not speculation (read, pump&dump). Bitcoin is kinda reserve currency now in the cryptoworld, a point of reference for other coins. Others seem to be more suitable for regular use if it ever comes to that. I stand for litcoin myself as I'm trying to use it daily, but it is a matter of personal preference. Coins like ethereum or zcash have their own niche or use case, the rest are mostly speculative garbage (such as bitcoin cash, gold, air, whatever).
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What are everyones thoughts on this?
What are everyones thoughts on this?
Really, this shit has been posted a shitload of times already. I remember you posting this chart a few times here, didn't you? But never mind, to make sense you should combine it with the growth in average hourly pay within the same time span. Then you would see the real, wages-adjusted value of the dollar, which has likely even increased due to technological improvements during the last 100 years.
Seriously, if you want to assess the dollar volatility, you should look at the USDX, the index which reflects the dollar strength against the basket of major currencies.
I think that btc will be the winner for long or maybe even forever. To my mind, it has a lot of benefits and that's why it is going to be the leading one and I think that ether will be in the market as well close to btc
It is not that bitcoin cannot die, 'cause such is life, then you die', but it will be a king of crypto for a long, long time ahead. Though this is not the question asked. Here, in this topic, I'm interested in altcoins, and it doesn't look like bitcoin is going to kill'em all. If it were so, they wouldn't have appeared in the first place, right? So there is an evident need for them. whatever it might be, for example, purely speculative interest.
But how many altcoins do we actually need? Maybe a dozen, maybe half a dozen as most coins and tokens are obvious pump and dump schemes that don't even last beyond their ICOs if there is an ICO at all.
In my view, litecoin is the coin worth holding from the long-term perspective. It is effectively bitcoin on juice or what bitcoin should have been right from the beginning. As it is unlikely that things are going to change in this space soon if ever, litecoin will remain a widespread payment tool for its simplicity, fast and cheap transactions, pervasiveness. It is unlikely either that people will be using bitcoin for their daily needs but litecoin fits in here quite nicely if you ask me.
Maybe there are other altcoins worth holing long-term but I'm not aware of them. If only dogecoin - for the fun of it.
Maybe there are other altcoins worth holing long-term but I'm not aware of them. If only dogecoin - for the fun of it.
I have a vivid discussion with my friends lately. They say that one day people will forget what cash is and they will start use card only. Then the era of the changed and innovated cryptocurrency world comes, and we will stop using money and switch on crypto coins only. They say it might take twenty or thirty years, maybe longer, but it is a sure thing to happen, they have no doubts about it. I am not so sure... well, people might give up using cash as it is not that convenient, but giving up money as whole? I really really doubt it, it seems so impossible for me. What do you think? Maybe we will start using something brand new, neither cash nor cards? What is the future of the cryptocurrency world, anyway? Will it die in fifty, sixty years or it is going to be a thing that will live forever? Let's dream for a while
There have been different forms of money, gold and silver, fiat and crypto. In the future, there can be more. But the form is not that important because money is not determined by its form but by what it does and how it is used. If something physical like coins and banknotes or immaterial like digits in a computer or on the blockchain, is used as a universal means of exchange, it is money by almost every definition out there. Without money, it would be barter, highly ineffective and inconvenient.
manipulators want to collect more cryptocurrencies. they manipulate the market and wants market to be dumped when they want to buy. and they manipulate for a rise with good volume when they want to cash out.
That's why if you want to have profits then you would want to think as a manipulator or the whales or the market makers. You would want to know what are they thinking or what their movement might be in this kind of market so that in this way, you can anticipate their movement and you can avoid being dumped and will be not late when the pump comes. One key factor here is having a trading plan always so that you will not be betrayed by your emotions in case there are sudden movements in the market.
If you ask me, that's next to impossible for the vast majority of trading folks as they are driven entirely by emotions even though they themselves think they are quite rational and reasonable. This is how human mind works by retrospectively rationalizing decisions made and steps taken. For example, you make a rush decision on impulse and then you proceed to contrive a reason to explain your actions. With manipulators, it is even worse than that. By trying to guess what's on their mind, you will be only fooling yourself. If your knowledge and expertize is on par with theirs, you will be acting accordingly without ever trying to get into their heads as you won't need that.
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a large holder might iceberg large sells at resistance, but whether or not a top actually forms there is really just up to the market. plenty of whales have been slaughtered mercilessly by this market, especially in the older days. having a bunch of coins doesn't mean whales knows shit about trading. for some reason, people just assume these people are profitable and remain whales. they aren't and don't. they're not much different than the 80% of traders that lose money.
a large holder might iceberg large sells at resistance, but whether or not a top actually forms there is really just up to the market. plenty of whales have been slaughtered mercilessly by this market, especially in the older days. having a bunch of coins doesn't mean whales knows shit about trading. for some reason, people just assume these people are profitable and remain whales. they aren't and don't. they're not much different than the 80% of traders that lose money.
It has been always a question for me, how many of early adopters still hold their thousands of coins? In 2013 some people were saying that most of them sold everything when Bitcoin was around $100. But then, due to high demand on the part of regular people, Bitcoin hit $1,000+ in December 2013 and the subsequent falling could only be explained by dumping big amounts by whales, because regular people couldn't lose their interest in Bitcoin at once. Then December 2017 happened when again because of the high demand from new adopters the price skyrocketed to $20k, and we all know what happened next. Again, I don't think those newcomers who were buying at $10k-$15k started selling their coins all of a sudden. Most likely it were the whales this time too.
It seems that you are not taking into account that it is actually a two-way street. What I want to say is that even if the first wave of whales (the bitcoin pioneers) had sold their stashes earlier, for example, in 2013-2014, it doesn't necessarily mean that there are no more whales left. For example, we all know about the Winklevee twins and their mighty bitcoin holdings, but they were not among the very first adopters. They are what would be correctly called the second generation of bitcoin whales. The point is when some whales go, new ones take their place.
And today when we are witnessing that the price is more or less stabilized, can it be the sign that most of them whales indeed sold their coins earlier and that's why they can't manipulate the market no more? If that is the case then in the future the price will depend solely on the demand and supply, and since the demand will inevitably rise the price will rise as well.
Then again, this is just a speculation. To make plausible inferences, we need to look at bitcoin wealth distribution. But even it is not 100% "tamper-proof" as one holder can have many unconnected wallets. In that case, you won't see them as one stash and him as a whale.
Re: How Binance Decentralized Crypto Exchange Launch in 2019 Will Impact the Market
Don't they make a lot of money by charging fee's from the each trade? How would the decentralized trading platform would help them? What would be the method they would make money from it? I understand they are already charging less than almost everyone in the market for the fee, even less with their bnb making the fee go down %50 however its still something.
What would happen if they get rid of that and allow people trade directly? How would they make money at all? I am not sure what their play is doing something that would lose them money and doing it themselves as well. Weird to see, there must be a way to make money for them I can't see.
What would happen if they get rid of that and allow people trade directly? How would they make money at all? I am not sure what their play is doing something that would lose them money and doing it themselves as well. Weird to see, there must be a way to make money for them I can't see.
I should confess that I've been thinking along the same lines too and asking myself same questions. One of the way they can make money is to add a layer to a coin's base protocol that would take some percentage from every trade made using it. Another way to do it, and that's how it is done with bitshares, if I'm not mistaken, is by using some utilitarian token ("gas") for this purpose. Then you can advertise a decentralized network for this token in the same way as you would do while bootstrapping any other new coin. By taking this approach, you will be able to remove a third party risk and still receive royalties or fees from trades on a decentralized exchange built along these principles.
I do not think that many traders pay taxes on their profits. Firstly it is very difficult to track down and in General how they will know how much the trader really earned money this year. Fuck them.
I would suggest it depend on the exchange and which country it is located in. I also assume that in the US at exchanges like Kraken, Polo, Bittrex, Coinbase, and their likes all US residents have to pay their income taxes whether they want or not as these exchanges directly report all transactions to the IRS. In other countries the situation with the income tax may be different, and in some of them bitcoin and cryptocurrencies may not be taxable at, which effectively means you officially might be exempt from paying an income tax on your bitcoin profits. These are known as tax havens I guess.
There are no "manipulators", there are simply big players who have the opportunity to influence the market, and obviously take advantage of it.
If we were able, we would do it too.
For what concerns us, we can only try to understand in which direction the "manipulator" will move the market, and go after it.
If we were able, we would do it too.
For what concerns us, we can only try to understand in which direction the "manipulator" will move the market, and go after it.
Yeah, I'm telling the same thing here. Even though there can be some price manipulations going on but they are rather local and can't affect prices significantly, let alone change the overall long-term trend. Pump&dump contrivances are common for small altcoins though, where it is easy to influence the market with a minimum of funds. With bitcoin it would be very expensive and not in the least guaranteed to succeed unless we are speaking about specific moments (so-called tipping points aka pivots) when however small disturbances can cause very dramatic and lasting changes. But these moments are rare and far in between and will happen on their own sooner or later even without a directed pull.
Re: Is it true that the market usually rises before the end of the year?
If he has decided to see not rising by the end of the year as a big disappointment, which is because that is the line he has decided to choose. Disappointment only comes to those who expect too much from the future they cannot predict, rather than trying to take advantage on the moment now, believing surely that the future is good irrespective of when it comes good, and then be able to make substantial decisions by utilizing the opportunity that the market brings now. There is so much in the future that is expected, so, trying to panic unnecessarily or getting disappointed if the market does not move as please, sounds absurd to me.
Many hodlers would strongly disagree with you on this one. They blindly believe that bitcoin will be a huge success in the coming years and thus they keep on holding their bitcoins. Do they expect too much from the future and can they not predict it? It seems to me that they are waiting for the next bull run which should start after bitcoin bottoms out. It may have already but somehow I don't think that their hopes will come to fruition. Bitcoin is most likely going to continue trading in the narrow range of 6-8k, but I don't see the market being overflowing with opportunities. You can't do much in this kind of trading environment.
This is totally depending which country are you from.Some country, according to their legislation on taxe, just accept income taxes. So you just have to pay income taxes.In crypto market you are anonymous, How govt will find you out.
That wouldn't be difficult provided there is an intention to do so. Quite naturally, if you are earning just enough to provide for a living and not the one like that of a millionaire, it is not very likely the tax authorities will be interested in the source of your income, though your mileage may vary. But if it is measured in the range of millions, they may get interested, then you have to answer some questions asked and you'd better have the required taxes paid to get off cheap and unscathed. They can easily find out when you decide to cash out as all big transactions are recorded and then thoroughly analyzed for money laundering and similar criminal activities.
Re: Is it true that the market usually rises before the end of the year?
Is it true that the market usually rises before the end of the year?
If so, why do you think it happens?
I spoke with few people that already said that in the last 5 years the market became really bulish
If so, why do you think it happens?
I spoke with few people that already said that in the last 5 years the market became really bulish
Yes, many people receive some money before the year ends and some would just like to invest it into something.
The opposite also holds true. By the end of the year people are willing to book profits and shell out on gifts and other things due to Black Friday, Christmas, New Year, and things like these. It is certainly possible that the December crash that started at the end of 2017 was because of these factors, that is people cashing out and wanting to spend cash in real life. That was a trigger that started off an avalanche of sell-offs that continued well into the first quarter of 2018. So don't dismiss the factor which works in the opposite direction as many people may be willing to disinvest by the year end.
We have to basically forget about miracle happening with price this year because it might not leave the bear mode. Lets start looking at 2019 which looks like opposite of this year.
2918 turned out to be a bad year for crypto. I know a lot of people that got involved in January but they lost a lot of money and vowed that cryptocurrency was a scam. I think this last quarter of 2018 will be good but I agree that it won't really take off until 2019.
I'm curious if you really don't understand why plenty of people have a problem with that. Let's start with the fact that many of these people bought at prices well above the current price. And it is not about people who bought at the top price of roughly 20k as many more bought at prices around 10-12k in vain hope that it was the true bottom back then. 12k first looked as a real support as price bounced off that level initially, but then it crashed below 7k in a matter of a few weeks if not days.
You still don't see a problem with that, huh?
As far as I know, it took 3-4 months before the market turns green after the bitcoin halving in 2016. So if history repeats itself then perhaps 2020 will be the year wherein we might see another 2017 in the making.
The devil is in paying particular attention to details. Let's say for a start that prices had been rising since the beginning of 2016 (actually, since September, 2015), and just a few weeks before the halving many people predictably decided to cash out with prices going down the hill. Well, it may not be them in fact as it may just have been some whale forerunning everyone else in the sell-off, but there we were.
Then the Bitfinex hack happened on August 2nd with over 120k bitcoins stolen, which sent the prices further down. So no surprise that the recovery took a few months. The same sequence of events is unlikely to repeat itself, and the next time things may evolve in a quite different direction.
i think it is impossible. in my opinion crypto will live until forever. People love crypto space. and they really love the chance of earning good money in short time like a gamble. Because of that i believe crypto space will continue like that. and we will also continue to increase like past years.
I don't mind if crypto lasts forever but earning money with it is not what Satoshi himself envisioned. He meant crypto, that is bitcoin, to be the money. Do you earn money with money? Yes, you do, but this is not what money is or should be used for. Money, by definition, is a means of exchange, it is not a means of making more money directly, through trading, even though there are currency markets. Bitcoin, as of now, is not money, it is a vehicle for speculation, while most other cryptocurrencies are downright scams, going from pump to dump and then biting the dust.
And that may be the reason why he is no longer interested in bitcoin. It is possible that he was disappointed in how it would be used and left the scene at the right time.
Re: Is it true that the market usually rises before the end of the year?
Is it true that the market usually rises before the end of the year?
If so, why do you think it happens?
I spoke with few people that already said that in the last 5 years the market became really bulish
If so, why do you think it happens?
I spoke with few people that already said that in the last 5 years the market became really bulish
People predict that way. But since they expect it to happen usually big whales don't want them to ride with it. You just have to wait and be surprise and also be prepared for anything to happen.
People have always had this mindset with last quarter of the year based on past history, but what I only have to say is that using history to judge what the future will hold is not the right way. Sure, it is a good thing to keep it in mind, but at the same time, it is another good thing to always look at the price action to know the possibilities of where the market is actually moving.
Bitcoin had been rising in all seasons as well as falling in all seasons too. It just happened that it peaked two times, in 2013 and 2017, close tho the year end. Before the 2016 halving it had been rising all the spring of that year, then it crashed it the summer due to people cashing out just before the halving and because of the Bitfinex hack in early August. After that, the growth that culminated in December 2017 highs had started in the early spring of that year, from levels of a little over $1000. As always, the devil is in paying precious attention to details.
everyone will be motivated by people, everyone has the right to have a lot of money, I will try to get as much money as I can, I make money only in the bitcoin forum
I think people are very much motivated by money and this is the reason so many of them invest in cryptocurrency to make big money in small time. This thirst for money has actually led people do many illegal activities as well which amounts to billions of dollars. Investment in Bitcoin is also a potential way to earn big money. So more and more people come up with their master plans and end up making as many shots as possible for ultimately this meets the assumption of monotonicity.I agree with what you say. At present we're all to be in modern civilization, anything that's modern is usually more related to money, you may understand that what we do everything isn't free, for example when you enter a vehicle, go to the toilet for something or else except what we have.
For every investor, surely all of them expect that the investment will provide benefits in the future and can bring it to the future which is brighter for their children and grandchildren. If they, are not motivated by money there's no way they will be willing to go to great lengths to fight for the spirit of the HODL in themselves.
Well, if you ask a random dude on the street who doesn't have a slightest clue what investing is all about, you may in fact receive such an answer. But if you ask somebody who doesn't just know about investing but actually tried it out and successfully at that, he will ask you how much he could earn by this investment as it is clear what investments are for - for earning money and making profits. And making profits goes hand in hand with expansion in application in the real world simply because profits have to come from something real, they are not popping up out of nowhere.
Bitcoin of course has far greater fundamentals, but it is still, after all, an experiment unfolding with no real end result in view. But yes, every day that passes without the dream crashing down around us in one day closer to that point of no return.
In that way we can think of everything being an experiment or at least a work in progress. This is even more so with respect to money as there have been many flavors of it which were tried throughout history. Now we have fiat which is not backed up by anything but a kind word and a gun as Al Capone once put it. But everything being an experiment doesn't really make any difference as we are living today no matter when this experiment is going to end, if ever, and how exactly. So, in a sense, anything we do can be considered experimenting, not just bitcoin alone.