As I have said earlier, I will not post here again (because of a deletion to a post of mine) to comment on bitcoin or to make prediction of bitcoin prices.

The following is an exercise in curve fitting, fitting an exponential curve (y = A exp(kx)) to the price data of bitcoin in the recent 1 year using simple regression analysis. The curve is extrapolated into the future. I do not comment if such a curve fitting is of any use. Readers may decide if such a curve fitting extrapolation means anything.   

Data: coindesk.com 1 year data, number of points = 20;

2016/10/6/611
2016/11/19/751
2016/12/26/903
2017/1/26/915
2017/2/26/1180
2017/3/16/1173
2017/4/23/1284
2017/6/1/2452
2017/6/28/2584
2017/7/31/2873
2017/8/26/4387
2017/9/10/4191
2017/9/13/3874
2017/9/28/4185
2017/10/12/5439
2017/10/24/5519
2017/10/31/6447
2017/11/9/7146
2017/11/15/7280
2017/11/16/7843

a = 6.20708, 
A = exp(a) = 496.249,
k = b = 0.006371,
Exponential fit: y = A * exp (k * x);
start point x[0] -  2016/10/6, 611
last point x[406] - 2017/11/16, 7843

Extrapolate by number of days:

days 0, 2017-11-16, $6593
days 10, 2017-11-26, $7027
days 20, 2017-12-6, $7489
days 30, 2017-12-16, $7982
days 60, 2018-1-15, $9663
days 90, 2018-2-14, $11699
days 120, 2018-3-16, $14163
days 150, 2018-4-15, $17146
days 180, 2018-5-15, $20758
days 210, 2018-6-14, $25130
days 240, 2018-7-14, $30424
days 270, 2018-8-13, $36832
days 300, 2018-9-12, $44590
days 330, 2018-10-12, $53983
days 360, 2018-11-11, $65353
days 540, 2019-5-10, $205750
days 720, 2019-11-6, $647755
days 900, 2020-5-4, $2039305
days 1080, 2020-10-31, $6420272
days 1260, 2021-4-29, $20212711
days 1440, 2021-10-26, $63634949
days 1620, 2022-4-24, $200339607
days 1800, 2022-10-21, $630721933

I think I am not welcomed in this forum.

I received this personal message from the moderator informing me of the deletion of a reply that I made to my thread : "Bitcoin will crash below $3000"

My reply is an answer to another comment. The only reason that I can see why my reply was deleted is that I argued that bitcoin has nothing to contribute to the good working of the world economic system. This is a purely academic hypothesis and I cannot see why a purely academic argument is not allowed to be freely expressed.

The moderators seem to dislike any argument that go against their official view about bitcoin. I cannot accept such suppression of decent freedom of expression. I have decided not to post any more comments about bitcoin here again. I may post in the technical sub forum if I need advice from the technical experts there.

I think I am correct. The trick is to consider what the next market quote would be if a match from the order book is confirmed. A stop order can nullify such a confirmation.

Let's examine only stop loss; there are:
1) sell order queue - now 7100, next order 7200.
2) buy order queue - now 7000; next order 6800.   
3) current highest sell limit - 6900, next 6800.
So the current quote is:
   7000/7100.
Say a sell order come in at 7000 (or lower!) replacing the best sell queue; it could be matched at 7000. Before we confirm the match, we see what the next market quote would be if it is matched; the next quote would be:
   6800/7100.
   
This quote would mean a seller may come to match the buy at 6800 and the market would drop below   the stop limit of 6900. Whenever such a situation occur, we do not confirm the trade at 7000. Instead we match the buy offer of 7000 from the queue with the stop limit sell of 6900. We confirm the trade at 6900, giving the buy 7000 a better deal at 6900. Trade would be done at 6900. The market quote now becomes:
   6800/7000

This is the trick that ensures a stop limit sell would be done at the exact stop limit price and never lower. In very volatile markets, the next best buy/sell orders may differ from the current by appreciable amounts. The trick here will still ensure a full exact execution of limit orders.      
   
I could be wrong missing some other considerations.

I received this personal message from the moderator informing me of the deletion of a reply that I made to this thread:
My reply is an answer to Caladonian's latest comment to me. I find my reply to be of complete relevance. The only reason that I can see why my reply was deleted is that I argued that bitcoin is not useful - an expression of an absolute academic argument.

I cannot accept such moderation from this forum. I have decided not to post in this forum again as free expression of arguments contrary to what the bitcoin developers believe in are censored here.

Yes! You are correct that I don't know how to implement a complete trading engine without help from others. I have zero knowledge about network programming - like TCP etc; but I know how to program the engine concerning matching orders, cut-loss orders,etc.. these are common sense accounting things which any programmer can do - you could do things honestly or dishonestly.

OK. There is such a thing call DDoS - denial-of-service attacks; so when many people want to log on at the same time, users cannot get through their orders.

1) I know engines can be programmed to cheat.
2) I know that if a person is logged on properly, if he can immediately get a market order done immediately, but cannot delete an order immediately, there is cheating (if the delay is unreasonable).
3) that you can implement stop loss orders where stops would be activated at the exact stop price - not a bit more nor less.

This is what I know.

Another thing I forgot to mention. In a very honest implementation of a trading platform (as it should be):
   
This also is routine system programming. But I believe most stop loss orders may not be honored in this manner - never with Kraken from what is happening. Only with real stops can proper speculation be done in such volatile markets.

From what I know, all bitcoin exchanges allow program trading through bots - free of charge. This should be if I were to implement an exchange as it would be the best manner to have the smallest market spread.   

There was also a server breakdown when Facebook made its debut - Nasdaq was down for a period of hours, I think. The reason they gave was something like ...transactions were flooding their servers causing it to crash..

Dumb! Every system programmers know that you have queues for buy and sell orders, they are just files. I don't care a million users suddenly want to connect, they just won't get through. The platform just matches the orders already in their queues and keeps running.

Leave Kraken if you can.   

Fanatic markets know how see news to explain why a market rise or fall - Putin caught a cold, a cow was knock down on the streets of Delhi...something really bad happened    

You have to bear in mind that bitcoin now is all gambling. Ask yourself what your chances are against shrewd professional gamblers. The prices before they started to pump up the market was $600. Those very rich funds know how to acquire things at lows and then push them up sky-high - as with the current $7500 peak.

The lows they acquired their large holdings may be around $1000. At any price above $1000, they make a profit. So the actual bottom may well be below $5000.

Honestly, do you have a degree in economics or finance?

The US Federal Reserve Bank - the Fed - is the central bank for the US dollar monetary system.

Honestly, do you know how a fractional reserve banking system works ?

Bitcoin at $10,000 is only a self-delusion - the logic is inconsistent.

Bitcoin is all about buy-low sell-high - nothing about buying bitcoin (viz other crypto) for its "especial" value and to HODL. Buying bitcoin now to hold and handing them over to your grandsons is not an investment strategy!

You must have bought at lows before you could sell at high. Come bitcoin $10,000.


This logical inconsistency means there never will be a bitcoin $10,000 - there is no bitcoin $10,000 to celebrate this Christmas. Only gloom for those invested in bitcoin above $6000.

It is never a good time now to buy bitcoin.


Bitcoin at $10,000 is only a self-delusion - the logic is inconsistent.

Bitcoin is all about buy-low sell-high - nothing about buying bitcoin (viz other crypto) for its "especial" value and to HODL. Buying bitcoin now to hold and handing them over to your grandsons is not an investment strategy

You must have bought at lows before you could sell at high. Come bitcoin $10,000.


This logical inconsistency means there never will be a bitcoin $10,000 - there is no bitcoin $10,000 to celebrate this Christmas. Only gloom for those invested in bitcoin above $6000.

Your "bottom" is very likely to be reveresed false ceiling

Bitcoin at $10,000 is only a self-delusion  - the logic is inconsistent.

Bitcoin is all about buy-low sell-high - nothing about buying bitcoin (viz other crypto) for its "especial" value.

You must have bought at lows before you could sell at high - unified string theory?

When you sell high come $10,000, where are the ready pool of "fools" ready to facilitate your profit taking. Bobby Lee, Jihan Woo, ...

This alone means that there is no $10,000 to celebrate this Christmas. Only gloom for those invested in bitcoin above $6000.

Bitcoin is now at $6700 back from $5680.

12 Nov 23:00 -  $5680
13 Nov 13:00 -  $6700

Steep rise within 14 hr. This is again an exponential rise that can only come from pumping from very large players - including the exchanges themselves which have complete ease to buy and sell.
   
Ordinary demands cannot push bitcoin up at this rate. This round of pumping will have to stop very soon as there won't be enough of first time buyers waiting to get into bitcoins. Those wanting to transfer bitcoins to the exchanges to sell would find it very difficult because of bitcoin's very large pool of unconfirmed transactions.

I cannot understand where "panic" buying can come from.

I know programming. Programming a trading engine is as simple as ABC, just simple accounting. An honest implementation (which it should be) is to allow immediate cancellation of order. This is very easy to accomplish.

You match orders from a pool of buyers and seller sequentially. Orders to cancel is monitored at another thread. As long as an order is not the orders in the current price matching - and order cancellation should be immediate. Our current processors are very powerful and there is not need to delay any order cancellation.

They lock your order in order to do sure-win arbitrage when they need time to confirm their arbitrage order.

I think there are a few complains about Kraken. Don't trust them.

Bitcoin is now at $6700 back from $5680.

12 Nov 23:00 -  $5680
13 Nov 13:00 -  $6700

Steep rise within 14 hr. This is again an exponential rise that can only come from pumping from very large players - including the exchanges themselves which have complete ease to buy and sell.

   

Ordinary demands cannot push bitcoin up at this rate. This round of pumping will have to stop very soon as there won't be enough of first time buyers waiting to get into bitcoins. Those wanting to transfer bitcoins to the exchanges to sell would find it very difficult because of bitcoin's very large pool of unconfirmed transactions.

Bitcoin is now doing $6300. It will test $5000 very soon.
   

Bitcoin Must Crash - $7500 Is The Peak
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2380173.0

12 Nov 06:00 - $5600
12 Nov 22:00 - $5680

The market tested the lows within 16 hr. The market is now at around $6350.
   
   Those who talk about bitcoin going to $10,000 by Christmas is just fantasizing - from pure unadulterated greed.
Why should bitcoin be worth $10,000? They believe in the talks by the propaganda about how bitcoin is the currency of the future...banks and governments cannot touch bitcoin and therefore there is no way it goes but UP...
   But they forget that bitcoin cannot be a currency, but only as a medium of speculation.
   I will not repeat my arguments as I have already explained in my other posts that bitcoin will never bring any real economic benefits to the world.

12 Nov 06:00 - $5600
12 Nov 22:00 - $5680

The market tested the lows within 16 hr. The market is now at around $6350.
   
This bitcoin "investment" is only for those who in the past have been successful speculating in other financial markets like stocks, forex and futures; for such speculators, bitcoin is the next best thing after the creation of future derivatives. Bitcoin is not for those who even have lost money in stocks. If you have a track record of losing money in stocks, the chances is your lost in bitcoin would be much greater.

Those who talk about bitcoin going to $10,000 by Christmas is just fantasizing - from pure unadulterated greed.
Why should bitcoin be worth $10,000? They believe in the talks by the propaganda about how bitcoin is the currency of the future...banks and governments cannot touch bitcoin and therefore there is no way it goes but UP...
   But they forget that bitcoin cannot be a currency, but only as a medium of speculation.
   I will not repeat my arguments as I have already explained in my other posts that bitcoin will never bring any real economic benefits to the world.
   
Ask yourself. Have you read what a bear market rally is? Do you know what it means by "a bear market rally trap"? If you do not know, then you should not be in bitcoin.
    
The two bear market rally from lows of %5600 are deadly traps. In a bear market - meaning the market will crash from the peak of $7500 to below $3000 within, say 2 months - all these rally pulls in those wanting a "bite" of the bitcoin cake and buying on dips - it is such dips which are deadly.

Bitcoin cash spiked from $1000 to $2400 within a day and dropped back to $1000 again in a day.

Ask yourself how good you are as a speculator (gambler). If you have no good track record as a gambler - forget it

Go buy blue chip shares that keeps a long term stable value or savings deposits. Investing in savings deposit at -3% per annum is better then buying at $1800 and selling at $1200 in a week .