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Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
by
tifozi
on 06/04/2022, 04:24:03 UTC
⭐ Merited by Hueristic (1)
Noticed HavenoDEX raised their target of 755 XMR recently (within a span of 3-4 days ?)

A few things are just conjectures at this point and I could be totally wrong about these, but this is what I think is true in the XMR ecosystem

1) A VAST majority of coins are being hoarded and hodl'd despite the utility and cash like fungibility provided by XMR. The community has been advocating spending for years now, and it is being used as such as well, but there are whales and orcas out there who will just not spend, advocate, contribute to the ecosystem. This is both a complaint and maybe tiny bit of appreciation for them on my part (with their stance). They value it immensely and have positioned themselves in case of future success without having to shill nonsense, propaganda, lies, orders from the shadow govt that has taken over crypto in general and BTC in particular.

But they must contribute to Monero projects. Simply storing in cold wallets is not doing the right thing. It is a shame that only ~200 people contributed. We are talking about Monero flippening BTC ? Cannot be serious with such a poor turnout for what is an extremely important base for Monero to spring from. The equivalent of the ask would be filled in 5 mins if it were BTC or ETH even though everyone is just hodling and not spending in these chains.

2) BTC and Crypto world has been completely taken over by corporates, VCs and shadow govts who are driving an agenda on behalf of their masters. Everyone is acting like a puppet that wants an invite into the WEF club. The USD was never meant to be beaten. What was going to be beaten was an emergence of a stronger competitor. So why not create it, or more easily capture it given complete lack of privacy and fungibility.

3) Roger Ver recently said that it is unfortunate that there are not many Monero derivatives market because he wanted to short Monero and buy Puts. Along the lines of these, he also mentioned the tired old vitriol that was first started by the BTC group several years ago about hidden prints or difficulty of auditing the supply. He isn't the only one who has ragged about this. Everyone who has bought Bitcoin in the last 3-4 years and not an early entrant give it their all in attacking Monero with this vector.

To all of them I have to say, make up your mind. Don't complain about no coins being out there to purchase and an infinite undetected supply at the same time.

Bitcoin maximalism has affected Monero the most. It is quite an interesting disorder to see sometimes when even a $10 investor in Bitcoin nowadays suddenly starts preaching to others about "Sound Money".
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Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
by
tifozi
on 02/01/2022, 12:34:36 UTC
Come on. That was easy. Everyone knew that.

Waiting that monero.how add new month so can draw another quarter to transactions by quarters graph. It will be highest again.

Well... I am still in the dark!  As I must be the dumbest Monero fan of all time.

All I do is hold what I have since 2014, while now and then BUYING some more like I did on 12/14/21.

So, maybe I saw it too?  But what did I see?

There are quite a few challengers to that title but cracks me up that some of us are like old farts Monero wise Smiley I think this year will be very important for growth and I expect accelerated adoption in plenty of places that have been waiting, watching on the sidelines etc. regardless of what happens in the overall market (which is relevant for price action). In the past another way to attack Monero has been to divide interest by increasing competitor chains, all of whom have pretty much abused the lack of formal system in place & ripped off the market. I see pretty much most of tired and the beaten (or even scammers themselves) respecting what was built here.

ZCash I think is going centralized POS and again we know how centralized systems are only going to attract VCs, fraudsters and Pump and Dumpers. That chain has self deprecated into irrelevance in the bigger picture except price manipulation and backdooring into centralized exchanges. Their problem is that BTC already exists for CEX price action.
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Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
by
tifozi
on 04/11/2021, 01:26:20 UTC

Heya tifozi, long time... welcome back.  I have a feeling you may have shown up just in time for some fireworks.

You are right about the ETH angle.  In fact seems to me the whole bank/institutional money world seems to be aping in (yeah yeah) as a way to concede without conceding.  I think either out of sheer ignorance (ETH is more gizmos - therefore better) or possibly understanding (ETH is an asset we can control very similarly to how we have played the USD.  Better it than the pure thing).

You have any more thought on your exchange manipulation?  I feel like more than anything exchanges just don't want to touch Monero very much, i suppose due to the whole "drug money" stigma.  With Kraken being an interesting exception.

I do not think Monero can stay where it is for much much longer, and I think the privacy maxis entering the space are more important than most anything else in recent times.  Once folks like they understand how it works, and well, how WELL it works?  They are going to start dipping their toes in it.  The Monero Market cap (stupid metric, but still) is at LEAST an order of magnitude too small currently.  I would say it should dig well into that double digit billions realm to be fairly enough priced for it to make sense.

That means Monero in the 2k-6k realm.

With 8% of Bitcoin's transactions I think we could conceive of an 8% value to match.

Currently that is $5200.  But I think it will be more like 9k by the time we get there...  Still I would set 5k as a reasonable target because if things go well in the bitcoin space, that is a <5% chunk. 

Conservative.



Thanks cAPSLOCK Smiley Yah I believe the S2F is > $2000 this year. My guess is though that it may lag again unless there are macro events. The people who are getting in nowadays don't even understand crypto, so the path is harder outside of merchant adoption etc. Fireworks are also important though, just like we have seen it help BTC adoption.

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Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
by
tifozi
on 03/11/2021, 16:16:49 UTC
I have been waiting a LONG time to begin to see this start happening.  Since 2014 in fact.

1.  We are on the cusp of a much deeper interest in Monero from the wider cypherpunk community.
2.  We are possibly also going to be regaining the community focus as Monero as a COMPLIMENT to bitcoin rather than a competitor.

This recording of a Twitter Spaces hosted by Guns N' Bitcoins after they announced the intent to start to accept Monero (for obvious reasons) is worth a listen.

Behold the beginning of the beginning...

https://twitter.com/sethforprivacy/status/1455510248349962255?s=20



-edit avoiding multiple posts in a row for our mods-

So it gets juicy at about minute 52.  A listener states they do not understand why someone would be 100% Monero and reject bitcoin.  And another listener gave a good reason, and one that I think is fairly new-ish in the Monero community.  The answer was: Bitcoin has been co-opted.

Now.  I believe that person believes that.  Earlier in the talk someone brought up Blockstream and how they have programmed us to believe in small blocks etc.  Maybe the same person.

THIS is what I mean when I say the Monero community is using BCASH arguments now.

I am also aware that people in this thread probably agree with the assertion that is being made there.  But I think this is a really bad line.  Because there is a better way to bring people INTO an understanding of Monero without forcing them into an adversarial position with Bitcoin.

Let's use Michael Saylor as an example.  Anyone notice how he's often said he does not think Bitcoin challenges the US dollar?  If you have listened to him for more than 45 seconds you know he is smart enough to get that Bitcoin ABSOLUTELY challenges all fiat currencies.  But he is focusing on the "better at being gold than gold" angle.

His reasons are simple, in my humble opinion.  It's what Bitcoin needs to do FIRST.  And it's ALL bitcoin needs to do FIRST.  Because once it has basically replaced gold (not a trivial boss-fight in itself) then becoming a worldwide transactional currency is something that CANNOT be stopped.

But if Saylor was prancing around talking about how it is going to "destroy the dollar" then he'd be painting a target on it.  Not only is the approach sensible it's honest.  Because again, that is all Bitcoin needs to do right now.  Become the premium store of wealth.

Likewise Monero does not need to replace Bitcoin.  It just needs to COMPLIMENT IT.  And for those who truly believe Bitcoin has been co-opted?  Well don't use Bitcoin then, for sure.  But it will be in your best interest to work in a way that will make monero attractive to as many people as possible.  And you can coexist with the Bitcoin community and disagree with them.  Or even believe that Monero should and/or WILL replace Bitcoin in the end.

It is like the famous Hayek quote:

Quote
don't believe we shall ever have a good money again before we take the thing out of the hands of government, we can't take it violently out of the hands of govt, all we can do is by some sly roundabout way introduce something that they can't stop

We don't need to replace Bitcoin.  We just need to keep pointing out that there are some things Monero does that Bitcoin not only does not... but CANNOT.

My final point.  This street works both ways.  There are tremendous advantages to an open transparent blockchain.  Bitcoin is better at certain things.  And it will eat all the other shitcoins features over time.  But one thing it can NEVER do is have an obfuscated base layer.

Selah.

Absent the Tether scam, it would have been a good fight but I like @cAPSLOCK pointers about how Saylor has gone about pumping BTC. We don't need to be adversarial to attract even the BTC crowd. It has to be done the Saylor "BTC is not competing against Dollar"  way. But fragile maxis will make sure no such things happen.

But XMR doesn't need to bend the knee and it is a fine line depending on how hostile BTC maximalists are more vocal about the whole thing, even shutting up people like Szabo. Remember also that the exchanges are clearly hacking XMR prices in order to demonstrate that it is not a good "investment". Until some big players come in and swoop large XMR away from exchanges, the monopoly and fraud will continue.

Ethereum might be the only chain getting real dollars. The BTC crowd that worships institutions prefers ETH over BTC. BTCs only talking point now is price.
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Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
by
tifozi
on 09/01/2017, 10:10:53 UTC
There will be lots of validations over the next couple of days on mainnet once it is live. Once everything looks solid, expect price to go north and settle at a new value regardless of BTC action as RingCT is something major.

Also expect a couple of noobs who would sell(inventors of "sell the news"  Roll Eyes), then come back to the thread and look for validation and confirmation/seeking feedback of their actions indirectly through their posts(they are equally unsure like everybody else). Life wouldn't be complete without charts either so sellers would also help you long after they have sold in order to catch the lower prices of their re-entry if you decide to follow their prognostication.  Wink
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Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
by
tifozi
on 07/01/2017, 19:32:17 UTC
I see patterns and I am pointing out that I have been giving this type free advice for years and have not even been thanked once. Feel free to go back and find a incorrect prediction I have made, I don't remember any. Yet I see People shilling their bags and idiot n00bs listen to them and get crushed, I'm dumbfounded by this.

Why not take revenge by shutting up completely and not offering any free advice at all since they all seem to be against you? I mean that prediction of yours that you keep repeating, I think it has been seen already so you have done your part.

Also not sure what anyone gets by going through post history. There has got to be a better way to utilize time. I remember you regretting selling way too early around the 0.007/8 mark during the runup to 0.026 last year and then frequently posting about wanting it all to come down over the next several weeks. I mean don't get me wrong, but probably noobs need to stay away from your free advice otherwise this whole thread would be full of people repeating the same thing over and over.
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Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
by
tifozi
on 07/01/2017, 17:06:10 UTC
Is there any explanation why BTCs down movement triggered a down movement for XMR?

Yes it was interesting to see the price of Monero mirror the price of Bitcoin during the drop.
Anyone have an explanation why the price has been so closely tied to the value of Bitcoin?

Profit taking (USD is strong atm), also chinese Gov warning that VC's are not currency.

A Few days back I predicted this.

...

I speculate thaT BTC WILL DROP SOON AND (FUCKING CAPS LOCK) xmr will drop a bit wirh profit taking so on the next spike I'm gonna convert to usd and rebuy on the btc low.

Lets see how this works out, last time i called it on the head but screwed my self by not having the capitol available to get back in! Lol...

Odds of anyone saying that and being correct are high, sorry  Grin. What did you do with that information that you had in advance? And is that the reason you are quoting yourself repeatedly?
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Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
by
tifozi
on 15/12/2016, 22:08:28 UTC
I think the situation is good.
Looking back at when I followed your advices or sayings, I would say you have a far better "backtesting" on long term choices than short term trading... (best decision I take reading your posts and others during 2014 and later: invest in monero long term, worst one : selling a significant part when you predicted capitulation a few weeks ago).

Well the good news is you were selling it to him and he knows what to do with it better.  Grin
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Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
by
tifozi
on 19/10/2016, 02:53:03 UTC
Zeronet is also going to be huge in due time. Nice screenshot right there ..

A lot of the low hanging fruits have been gambling last 3-4 weeks as well as newbies learning lessons the hard way. But will they ever really learn  Roll Eyes
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Board Speculation (Altcoins)
Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
by
tifozi
on 11/10/2016, 05:39:51 UTC

I personally wonder why Monero gets more attention now in their board than at the time the XMR implementation happened and were announced at their community board.

E: I'm curious when i see the chart since last week we had a steady up and down. So I ask myself who are these people who are loosing money with XMR in every day trading? Is someone here who trades with permanent loss?

No clue. Have you seen aminorex around?
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Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
by
tifozi
on 10/10/2016, 03:03:04 UTC
My gains/my group? I am confused. Did I not use the word "they/their" ? Also my gains have come from mining XMR when there were fewer than 10 miners, not by trading.

Having said that my opinions of some aspects of XMR have changed based on what I have witnessed in the past 2 years at different points in time. An year ago I would mention it to anyone in person (I will let BTCTalkers who have met me speak or watch doesn't matter), but now I won't. The landscape has changed with the type of crowd in it and just because I can withstand all this doesn't mean everyone else will. The people classifying XMR as toxic asset decided not to be in it, nothing more, nothing less.


Edit: See a "triple top" is coming .......

Seems like you were an XMR bull about a month ago.


It is a difficult paradigm shift for the masses still. There have been zero assets to compare with Monero, so it makes it that much more difficult. I got into BTC when I read the whitepaper, a membership and knowledge about this forum came much later unfortunately otherwise I would have been a bit more financially successful (rocket had left the station) and I was just left admiring the math.

When the CryptoNote whitepaper came out, I knew what was in store. I also pleaded with @thankful_for_today to make changes initially, both in forum and in IRC but that was one headstrong dude. I miss @tacotime's presence these days. We were both OPs in the initial IRC channel that we later surrendered to the current team. Good times.  Smiley

I bet the CN team are all pleased with the hard work and continued research publications that come out from the current team regardless of the external animosity at times. The cryptography is top notch math.

Even Ethereum has published a lot of good papers. But there is no way that a model of distribution like that will see long term success. It has to be meaningful blood and sweat with respect to mining and verification for it to make sense and it is going to take a while for everyone to get off that train. This is also a big short coming and narrow sightedness of zcash. Awesome math, bad model. They will be flipped for Bitcoins and that is where it will end. XMR is going to be the real wealth.


Short gone wrong?



Nope, permabull here. Just stopped recruiting new folks and going to give a more realistic picture to readers and anyone else looking at it from an "investment" point of view. My stance is not changing unless I get the wind that Monero Labs is closing and the cryptography is broken to the point of no return.


Edit: And the triple top comment is a stab at what is going to happen to further alienate the newbies.
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Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
by
tifozi
on 10/10/2016, 02:52:53 UTC
The pain was getting too painful. I had to step away for a while. Wasn't expecting to see this when I came back. Dare I cautious optimism? Smiley

Optimism about what?

A price floor or a trend reversal. Duh.

I feel like you are setting up to make some sort of "point" and I'm walking into your trap

Nah you are reading too much. I was trying to gauge more along the lines of fundamentals that have changed suddenly for anyone to be cautiously optimistic. At the moment (and even short to mid term) it is a caustic asset in my analysis.

Interesting. I dont think the fundamentals ever changed really. Before the great rise the price was way too low and I feel like it corrected way too much after. I'm optimistic about what looks like, might be, a shifting of sentiment.

I doubt it. In fact my recommendation to the couple of friends I introduced XMR to, was to sell when long term supporters came out of the closet (and before the N-rG barrage) and never get back in as I didn't feel confident enough to be responsible. In essence they 11x their Bitcoin portfolio and are never coming back. It is not like they don't know that XMR will rise again but it is an altcoin that will be used to extract Bitcoins out of the newbies and they get it & are not going to trade it anymore (and caustic asset was a borrowed term from them honestly).

I could not disagree more strongly with the idea that monero is just a lever to pry bitcoins from "newbies".  Any alt coin market is full of danger but it is wonderful to gain 11x in an investment.  

Personally, I invested 1\3 of my bitcoins into monero.  I was fortunate to buy a little extra during the rise which I sold, regaining my original stake.  But I kept the nut. Because I believe in monero.

I am not skilled enough to jump from alt coin to alt coin talking money from others...

I hope the promise of monero comes to fruition, but if it does not... At least I wasn't taken by more experienced traders like you and your group.  Kudos on your gains.

My gains/my group? I am confused. Did I not use the word "they/their" ? Also my gains have come from mining XMR when there were fewer than 10 miners, not by trading.

Having said that my opinions of some aspects of XMR have changed based on what I have witnessed in the past 2 years at different points in time. An year ago I would mention it to anyone in person (I will let BTCTalkers who have met me speak or watch doesn't matter), but now I won't. The landscape has changed with the type of crowd in it and just because I can withstand all this doesn't mean everyone else will. The people classifying XMR as toxic asset decided not to be in it, nothing more, nothing less.


Edit: See a "triple top" is coming .......
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Board Speculation (Altcoins)
Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
by
tifozi
on 10/10/2016, 01:41:24 UTC


free market friend, anyone is free to buy and sell and never come back, what is the point behind these caustic words, any open short?  Wink

Nope, these guys are not altcoiners which always made it a tough sell to begin with. One of them I actually met through Craigslist and learned a lot from  Smiley I know their group is setting shop for another upcoming altcoin which is out of scope of this thread.
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Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
by
tifozi
on 10/10/2016, 01:35:52 UTC
The pain was getting too painful. I had to step away for a while. Wasn't expecting to see this when I came back. Dare I cautious optimism? Smiley

Optimism about what?

A price floor or a trend reversal. Duh.

I feel like you are setting up to make some sort of "point" and I'm walking into your trap

Nah you are reading too much. I was trying to gauge more along the lines of fundamentals that have changed suddenly for anyone to be cautiously optimistic. At the moment (and even short to mid term) it is a caustic asset in my analysis.

Interesting. I dont think the fundamentals ever changed really. Before the great rise the price was way too low and I feel like it corrected way too much after. I'm optimistic about what looks like, might be, a shifting of sentiment.

I doubt it. In fact my recommendation to the couple of friends I introduced XMR to, was to sell when long term supporters came out of the closet (and before the N-rG barrage) and never get back in as I didn't feel confident enough to be responsible. In essence they 11x their Bitcoin portfolio and are never coming back. It is not like they don't know that XMR will rise again but it is an altcoin that will be used to extract Bitcoins out of the newbies and they get it & are not going to trade it anymore (and caustic asset was a borrowed term from them honestly).

K. Then quit speculating and go chase some celebrity pics. So sick of people seemingly wasting their time here after declaring no further interest....Must have some open shorts quivering....

Sorry I am not going anywhere as I have been here since Day 0 of Bitmonero Smiley What are your thoughts on dumpers, manipulators and big holders who dumped and are going to dump more when price increases even a little bit?
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Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
by
tifozi
on 10/10/2016, 01:19:15 UTC
The pain was getting too painful. I had to step away for a while. Wasn't expecting to see this when I came back. Dare I cautious optimism? Smiley

Optimism about what?

A price floor or a trend reversal. Duh.

I feel like you are setting up to make some sort of "point" and I'm walking into your trap

Nah you are reading too much. I was trying to gauge more along the lines of fundamentals that have changed suddenly for anyone to be cautiously optimistic. At the moment (and even short to mid term) it is a caustic asset in my analysis.

Interesting. I dont think the fundamentals ever changed really. Before the great rise the price was way too low and I feel like it corrected way too much after. I'm optimistic about what looks like, might be, a shifting of sentiment.

I doubt it. In fact my recommendation to the couple of friends I introduced XMR to, was to sell when long term supporters came out of the closet (and before the N-rG barrage) and never get back in as I didn't feel confident enough to be responsible. In essence they 11x their Bitcoin portfolio and are never coming back. It is not like they don't know that XMR will rise again but it is an altcoin that will be used to extract Bitcoins out of the newbies and they get it & are not going to trade it anymore (and caustic asset was a borrowed term from them honestly).
Post
Topic
Board Speculation (Altcoins)
Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
by
tifozi
on 10/10/2016, 00:49:57 UTC
The pain was getting too painful. I had to step away for a while. Wasn't expecting to see this when I came back. Dare I cautious optimism? Smiley

Optimism about what?

A price floor or a trend reversal. Duh.

I feel like you are setting up to make some sort of "point" and I'm walking into your trap

Nah you are reading too much. I was trying to gauge more along the lines of fundamentals that have changed suddenly for anyone to be cautiously optimistic. At the moment (and even short to mid term) it is a caustic asset in my analysis.
Post
Topic
Board Speculation (Altcoins)
Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
by
tifozi
on 10/10/2016, 00:38:50 UTC
The pain was getting too painful. I had to step away for a while. Wasn't expecting to see this when I came back. Dare I cautious optimism? Smiley

Optimism about what?
Post
Topic
Board Speculation (Altcoins)
Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
by
tifozi
on 10/10/2016, 00:13:19 UTC
Unless of course we get a surprise btc spike like the last time xmr was on its way to .03

Wasn't a surprise for the most part. There were predictions before it happened and it was used as a tool by the pumpers to indicate the cap on the rise, just like they did to ETH. You do realize it "spiked" (hardly a spike with $5 increase) for no reason at all. They did it to put the rise to its place and to indicate where altcoins belong in a way.

Just like there is no reason for double bottoms, triple tops etc for a price of an asset in the crypto world. Keep in mind they may and are valid with non-crypto assets. These are just an excuse for trading activity.
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Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
by
tifozi
on 07/10/2016, 19:53:01 UTC

What? Look at the dates you moron. I'm pretty sure N-rG is the one who got busted with that chart

We knew that BEFORE the chart. In fact even before he admitted it

Well my bot made some good shots so I own now thousands of cheap XMR's hehe  Cheesy

The Campaign is over. For me it wont drop further, the bottom is made. And if it drops, i keep now bagholding.

There was also FUD spread about AlphaBay removed XMR. Its wrong and a lie.



Quote
where are these N-rG nut huggers coming from lol

Probably from scumbags looking to hug his nuts. An example was posted here


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Board Speculation (Altcoins)
Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
by
tifozi
on 07/10/2016, 19:39:58 UTC
RingCT is not a guarantee price boost either. Markets move on anticipation of news, not when the news actually happens


Did you confirm with N-rG first? What is amazing is how after getting busted you have the gall to post like an authority about what "actually happens". No adjectives to describe persons like you who probably lie to themselves in the mirror while scumbagging to the crowd.