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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
touhonoob
on 02/11/2014, 04:56:10 UTC
Downtosimple:

Dont understand your logic.

But miners already run at a loss.

The price is currently low because there is more selling than buying.

Sellers sell because they think price will go down in future, thats why they dont want to hold.  

Gamblers who buy are thinking the price will go up in the future, as of now more people think price will go down rather than trend up.

How do we know miners are running at a loss while difficulty is up up and up? In my mind, the pure cost is only electricity, the others could be regarded as sunk cost. How much is the electricity, anybody knows here?

Also in my mind, leverage shorting is the main power driving prices down. Others could be negligible. Importantly, where does the shorting cover to close their shorts?

Some mining factories in China claim that their cost of electricity is nearly 0.

This is possible some miners have this advantage of almost zero cost for electricity, but for the masses no.They must be stealing it from the governenment, either way someone pays the cost.  

There is also land rent and maintenance expenses.

You should take a look at this documentary from NHK about Bitcoin in China: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IwLXSoQZIMM
Chinese people who invest in mining factories are super bullish on the future value of Bitcoin.
Since the investors have a lot of spare money, they are not hurry to cash out.
The investment of mining factories is long-term for Chinese investors.

Edit:
English Sub here
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B58tVkY6NVg
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
touhonoob
on 02/11/2014, 04:41:57 UTC
Downtosimple:

Dont understand your logic.

But miners already run at a loss.

The price is currently low because there is more selling than buying.

Sellers sell because they think price will go down in future, thats why they dont want to hold.  

Gamblers who buy are thinking the price will go up in the future, as of now more people think price will go down rather than trend up.

How do we know miners are running at a loss while difficulty is up up and up? In my mind, the pure cost is only electricity, the others could be regarded as sunk cost. How much is the electricity, anybody knows here?

Also in my mind, leverage shorting is the main power driving prices down. Others could be negligible. Importantly, where does the shorting cover to close their shorts?

Some mining factories in China claim that their cost of electricity is nearly 0.
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
touhonoob
on 02/11/2014, 02:12:29 UTC
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Re: Altcoins are killing Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency as a whole
by
touhonoob
on 01/11/2014, 22:25:50 UTC
Altcoins are just forks of Bitcoin source code.
Bitcoin can merge the improvements from Altcoins if there are some superior mechanisms.
That's how open source works.
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
touhonoob
on 01/11/2014, 21:19:11 UTC
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Re: WATCH OUT Ben Lawsky speaks @ Money2020 Las Vegas Nov 2-5
by
touhonoob
on 01/11/2014, 21:07:11 UTC
Money20/20 Exhibit Hall Hours:

Monday November 3: 10:00 AM - 3:00 PM & 5:35 PM - 7:30 PM
Tuesday November 4: 10:00 AM - 7:30 PM
Wednesday November 5:  10:00 AM - 2:00 PM
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
touhonoob
on 01/11/2014, 21:00:15 UTC
IG Launched Flexible Bitcoin Trading
http://www.ig.com/au/bitcoin-btc
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
touhonoob
on 31/10/2014, 20:42:47 UTC
@PanteraCapital
"There has never been a #bitcoin bull cycle with less than a 3.3x return." http://bit.ly/btcsept 
http://i.imgur.com/azn3Qkf.png
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
touhonoob
on 31/10/2014, 20:19:45 UTC

Precisely, first traditional bank adopting Crypto?
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
touhonoob
on 31/10/2014, 20:13:33 UTC
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
touhonoob
on 31/10/2014, 19:41:19 UTC
Well, the good news is that even if we sell at $275, that is above our entry point.  So the plan is sell only when totally necessary!  Wink  The question is more about what is deemed "necessary."  If we have to sell a substantial amount we could and will but we won't need to for several more months (could delay it even longer if we take advantage of more zero percent interest credit but that is a game that I really don't like playing too much.)  I think part of me feels like it is a game of who can wait the longest.  There are people trying to shake out the weak hands and I don't want to be the "weak hands" being shaken out!  Hodl on!   Cheesy


Sometimes I wonder if some of you even account for the possibility that the huge runups might be over.

It is about risk vs. reward.  Sure, the "runups" might be over.  In fact, Bitcoin could go to zero.  

However, it could still be very early in it's growth and we could see $100,000 per coin or more.

The question then becomes is the risk worth the reward?  I believe it is a resounding YES!

In a way, we all have the chance to become venture capitalists in Bitcoin with any small amount we are willing and able to throw in.  Usually these kinds of investment opportunities are not available to the "little people" or people like me with very little money to throw in.  By the time we get the chance to invest in the best companies, the VC's have already made millions and moved on to the next investment. These VC's are the risk takers.  They throw money into companies that lose everything.  However, for the few that make it their reward is beyond what we can imagine because most of us do not get those kinds of opportunities.

So that is why we are willing to be "all in" with what we have.  For some of us, we had very little to begin with and if we end up back to where we started we can at least say we gave it a shot.  That is a much better feeling than seeing the price rise to $1000, $5000, $10,000, or even $100,000 someday and then crying, "Why didn't I invest when it was $350!  

I think we are still in an early stage of Bitcoin development.
Most of people are skeptical about Bitcoin and don't want to waste their time to understand the technology behind Bitcoin.
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
touhonoob
on 31/10/2014, 17:52:56 UTC
BITCOIN PRICE FACES LOWER LOWS IN CONTINUING SLOW DECLINE
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-price-faces-lower-lows-continuing-slow-decline/

WC3's Web Payments Redesign Could Bypass Bitcoin
http://www.coindesk.com/wc3s-web-payments-redesign-bypass-bitcoin/
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
touhonoob
on 31/10/2014, 16:57:13 UTC
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
touhonoob
on 31/10/2014, 15:35:25 UTC
ANXBTC Launches Bitcoin Debit Card Without Monthly Fee
https://anxbtc.com/pages/#/card
http://i.imgur.com/msxj83x.png
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Re: Japan is new China?
by
touhonoob
on 31/10/2014, 09:32:17 UTC
Bitcoin has one important advantage over traditional solutions: low fee.
Once Japanese understand the technology and advantages of Bitcoin, they will accept it with no doubt.

Low fee if compared to international wire transfers, yes. Buying things, I don't think so.

Let's look at an example. In Tokyo at least I can use a PASMO/Suica card to buy a bowl of ramen. Say, 1000 yen (I know, pricey ramen). To get that money on the card I put a 1000 yen note in the machine and it loads my card. So there is 0.- fees involved for me as a user and can all be done in 5 minutes. Similarly, Edy can be charged for 0.- fees, if I'm not mistaken. And Edy I can use on Rakuten, Amazon (JP).

To get that amount in BTC, I would have to send money to the exchanges' bank (a bank fee there if it's not the same as mine), exchange it there (exchange fee applies) and, for convenience and safety, get the BTC to my wallet (another small fee there, potentially). No way that could all be done in 5 minutes. Additionally, since it does take longer, I'm exposed to the exchange risk. So what I thought I had put on my wallet to pay for the ramen, might not be enough by the time I finally make it to the shop.

So, no, I don't think the "low" fees will be the trigger for the Japanese to accept it to buy things.

I agree with you.
Adoption of Bitcoin in real-life scenarios is not as easy as online scenarios.
BitCash is widely used in online/mobile games in Japan which has a percentage fee for game developers.
If Japanese game developers find the advantage of Bitcoin and start adopt it, people will accept it just like they accept BitCash, which has 4 billion yen annual turnover.
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Re: Japan is new China?
by
touhonoob
on 31/10/2014, 09:04:00 UTC

Online gambling is not strictly forbidden.
Moreover, Bitcoin is not a legally currency which means gambling on Bitcoin is not illegal.
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Re: Japan is new China?
by
touhonoob
on 31/10/2014, 08:58:38 UTC
Quote
Also, keep in mind that the "big money" in Japan is with the older generation, so even if the younger generation may seem to be more open minded, they don't have the money to invest in new things.
Rakuten Group is one of the older generation. The CEO of Rakuten is 51 years old and he is bullish on Bitcoin.

Rakuten was only established in 1997. I'm more interested to hear about keiretsu type companies when talking big money. But, well done you found one. I can see where you're sentiment of "huge adoption" comes from.  Roll Eyes Wink

Even if Rakuten goes with bitcoin integration in Japan (their only one currently is in the US), it does not mean that bitcoin will be largely adopted by the general public. Exactly because - like you pointed out in the other thread - there are many, many options available to the Japanese already, most of which are more convenient than the use of bitcoin.

Bitcoin has one important advantage over traditional solutions: low fee.
Once Japanese understand the technology and advantages of Bitcoin, they will accept it with no doubt.
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Re: Japan is new China?
by
touhonoob
on 31/10/2014, 08:32:52 UTC
Quote
Also, keep in mind that the "big money" in Japan is with the older generation, so even if the younger generation may seem to be more open minded, they don't have the money to invest in new things.
Rakuten Group is one of the older generation. The CEO of Rakuten is 51 years old and he is bullish on Bitcoin.

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Re: Japan is new China?
by
touhonoob
on 31/10/2014, 08:14:40 UTC
Quote
The Chinese mindset is different to the Japanese. The Chinese invest money in pretty much everything they can get their hands on to. The Japanese are much more reluctant to jump on "new things".

Japanese are not as conservative as you think.
If Japanese are conservative, Japan can not become the most advanced country in Asia.
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Re: Japan is new China?
by
touhonoob
on 31/10/2014, 07:50:48 UTC
Well, I have doubts that japanese people will really want to play, speculating on Bitcoin.
We have a big handicap here (I live in Tokyo) : MtGox. Everybody think that MtGox = Bitcoin so Bitcoin = dangerous.
Japanese people love new technologies, but without a very heavy "back up" from a very big Japanese company, Bitcoin will have a hard time being trusted. I hope Rakuten will change that !
I don't think exchanges in here has 0 fees on transactions.
I'll try Kraken later, but for the moment the BTC/JPY pair has 0¥ volume. Even if I was really disappointed on Kraken decision to delete the DOGE/EUR pair which had ~1500$/day volume.

I think the sentiment has been changed recently since there are some positive opinions on twitter and news.

For Twitter: #ビットコイン
People are trying to explain the technology behind Bitcoin. http://www.digitalmoney.or.jp/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/20141003_BTC2.0.pdf
Some politicians (congressman) start publicly discuss about future applications of Bitcion. http://www.taro.org/2014/10/post-1543.php
 
For News: 楽天グループも導入、復活するビットコイン (Adoption of Rakuten Group, Revival of Bitcoin)