Very interesting project.
Currently just over 3000 btc funded. Is this enough so you could start this project with not being forced to further dilute TIME token by e.g. some kind of 'secondary offering'?

Yes, this could be true.



Agree, especially if by highly we understand profitability of early 2013. Currently, in general, expecting high returns on mining investments is a pure, difficult to justify, gamble.
AM's case when considered with respect to the share price is a bit 'special' because of failed gen2 and quasi failed gen3 - successful gen4, depending on timing and competition performance, could yield a nice return for those willing to risk their capital. I say risk capital because failed gen4 will be very harsh for todays buyers.

I want to share some thoughts on funding and the danger represented by Bitfury.

First of all I see no reason to doubt in honesty of statements made by FC (or Jutarul). If he says AM is able to operate for some time regardless of Btc price (btw - touching 200$ is a realistic possibility) then most probably it is the case. This is very important because we could face low prices still for some time. A game changer in this topic could be approval of first bitcoin ETF but I have no idea when (if) SEC could do it.

Bitfury, bitfury ... They are very canny with tapping fresh VC funds and creating sense of confidence. But, please, don't confound VC money with so called 'smart' money. I assure you, there are a lot of 'not that smart' VC money. What's worth noting  is the inability of Bitfury to fund itself internally. If history repeats (rhymes  ) they could just burn those new 20mln - especially if Btc hovers around 200$ in 2015-2016. Does this mean Bitfury is not a real danger for AM?- 'au contraire'! With such funding they could be able to try to flood everybody with new cost effective equipment sometime in 2015. But remedy is simple: AM must

a) stay cost effective
b) be innovative (gen4 success seems to be 'a must')
c) never succumb into fallacy of 'le grandeur' which, for example, in current environment means no debt.

If AM works this way then I don't see how Bitfury's new chip could bankrupt AM. Of course, dividends will highly depend on competition performance. Seems, interesting period ahead of us. 
 

This type of valuation will require real success of the platform. Dave and BitBay Team, the ball is in your hands.
I'm really curious about what the future brings.

Interesting charts.
What they say is actually the reason why I'm skeptic about possibility of important increase of btc/usd price in medium term - large miners tend to sell a lot of mined bitcoins to cover capital costs and fund new capacity.

Sorry, everything I could say about this is in the previous post.

I can give two examples of publicly available contracts with which it was possible to ROI (in coins terms). One is mining bitcoins and it's PBMining - if bought in February it'd be already positive. Second is mining altcoins and it's LTCGear - the best time to buy them was at the time they allegedly deployed new chips (around July).
However, I don't have 'smoking gun' evidence of legitimacy in both cases.
In PBMining case positive ROI if calculated as of today in fiat would require successful hedging of your investment and would be more difficult to achieve.

A few words about AMhash (taken from AMhash thread):

Not so sure. Timing is key. Some time ago I bought cloud mining contract that already returned above ROI and is still paying. However, predicting future difficulty is a very tricky task and being consistently right would probably require either crystal ball or "Back To The Future" Almanach.

As for AMhash. Buying it is similarly cost effective as buying Prismas - details varying on specific individual cases. It could give positive ROI (though probably not that much).

From a perspective of AM shareholder situation is a bit different because buying AMhash helps AM to resurface as successful operation. So, an AM shareholder buying AMhash while retaining realistic chance to earn a few coins effectively gives AM a hand. Frankly, the last conclusion increases my personal risk tolerance. 

Right, and many projects are already closed or quasi dead. Hopefully AM will survive.

AMhash is absolutely right move and your comparison with buying Prismas very pertinent. Now, think long term and build confidence. Look at cex.io, they are able to sell new hashrate at about twice the price while charging higher maintenance fee. Trust and confidence.

Several very pertinent posts - just above.

Every period has its own opportunities even for the 'small guy'. The trick is to spot them. For example:

1) an operation like AM could succeed with it's plans and right now one share costs just ~0.15. Yes, predicting it is speculative and shares could go to zero. But believing that large gains can be achieved without appropriate risk is infantile,
 
2) large mining operations are killing my miner's profitability? - what about taking advantage of depressed prices and accumulate btc? Each month, for a fracture of my income. In fact, current low prices are to large extent the merit of those mining behemoths. In a few years I could look very, very smart with this simple approach. If/when the price spikes I could even buy a miner - of course only if appropriate opportunity arises

3) why not to try some arbitrage even if just for fun - serious attempt requires time and dedication.

Eagerly looking for good news from AM  

Let's hope, performance is going to be at least as planned.

Shallowness of btc exchanges is a real issue and large players are surely trying to ride it. Also, big industrial mining operations are only adding to the downside pressure.
Another question is if AM is engaging in such speculative endeavors. Frankly, though AM could profit from btc price weekness, I would be extremely surprised  finding this being the case.

 

If officially confirmed this would be great news - especially that AM will need a lot of capacity for gen4.

Just trying to stir some discussion in this thread  .

Yes, hopefully, miners (chips) are finding buyers. Good funding for gen4 seems to be crucial - competition is announcing new solutions (though, rests to see if realistic). Time-frame for really successful gen4 deployment seems to shorten.    

I'm a bit cautious about AM having large btc reserve:
a) on the 'saloon' FC talked about negative balances, whatever he meant it's reasonable to assume AM hadn't a lot of btc in mid-July.
b) since then the whole network mined around 250k,
c) to mine ~60k would require almost 25%
Not viable.

Of course FC could have been engaged in speculative and highly rewarding transactions.  

 

Yes, this is very interesting.
However, for the moment, FC should be 100% concentrated on getting AM on track in current model (chips, miners, self-mining) - just a matter of priority.
When AM claims, in sustainable way, let's say equivalent of 25%-30% of network hashrate, then such ideas could be absolutely great for the more distant future.

1) IMO this is the most plausible explanation of recent inflows to 1HtUGfbDcMzTeHWx2Dbgnhc6kYnj1Hp24i:


2)  I don't think the above implicates imminent dividends. Before September there was a transaction of around 51btc and ... we are still waiting.

3) I'm convinced AM has more hashrate outside BtcGuild - net income is probably used/stashed for production/deployment/development.

 

100% true.


Interesting. Worth reading in it's entirety.