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http://www.fxwirepro.com/data/charts/20150515975df182German%20HICP%20inflation.jpg.jpg

It has been little more than two months, European Central Bank (ECB) started its massive € 1.1 trillion asset purchase program and market participants are already talking taper.

We have been warning against such talks as of now and last night ECB president Mario Draghi at press conference in International Monetary Fund (IMF) shrugged of any possibility of tapering the asset purchase program even slightly and reiterated ECB's determination to continue with the purchase to full and final meaning at least till September 2016.

Euro didn't pay much heed to the commentary trading close to its recent high around 1.14 against dollar and might keep doing so. Euro will be good sell when dollar come back alive again, probably somewhere around 1.19-1.21.

Why should EUR/USD go up if ECB to keep purchasing?

Euro is one leg of the pair. Too much speculative capital has flown in and out of either of the leg. With US losing growth momentum this year and rise in bond yields across Euro zone leading this pair to sharp recovery. Naturally Euro is up about 900 pips from bottom against dollar. Rise has not been that spectacular compared to other pairs like Pound, Franc.
Why no pint of talking taper?

In recent times European inflation has sharply jumped back, however that is partially due to lower base effect. By historical norms inflation is still very low. German HICP grew only by 0.3% in April and be assured ECB will keep pumping unless inflation reached close to but below 2%.

http://fxwire.pro/Look-at-inflation-and-stop-talking-taper-36607

http://www.fxwirepro.com/data/charts/201505146464335dBPS.png.png

Surprisingly, the consumption tax (CT) was raised from 5% to 8% in April 2014. CT (Consumption Tax) hike has presses back the timing of Japan's complete exit from deflation.

The adverse impact of the CT hike turned out to be worse than what the government or the BoJ had anticipated.

As a result, the CT hike created a cautious business sentiment, Earlier we already saw the net domestic fund demand shrunk to 3.3% of GDP. This indicates a weakening of reflationary momentum.

On a technical front EURJPY has been maintaining continuation pattern in short term trend as there is no trace of reversals. Relative strength index is converging the price sentiments in the trade of this pair. Fast stochastic also does not evidence any reversal signals. Hence, we believe it would still be a buy from us.

Hedge with Option Strategy: Sell a credit Put spread (Bull put spread)

We can establish this strategy by selling a Put option and purchase another Put at a Lower Strike Price with the same expiration date for net premium receivable.

This trade strategy is advisable only when the underlying exchange rate is projected to move higher or sideways so that put expires worthless and you keep the entire premium.

Use shorter period for expiration to take advantage of time decay and give lesser time for the stock to move against you.

(Source: http://fxwire.pro/Japanese-tax-regimes-depress-economy-36039)

http://www.fxwirepro.com/data/charts/20150513f380745bcarney's%20table.jpg.jpg

Today Bank of England published its Quarterly inflation report. That followed a speech from Governor Mark Carney.

Pound has taken a hit erasing all previous gains from strong unemployment report and wage growth.

* Unemployment rate dropped by 0.1% to 5.5% as expected, while average 3 months earnings growth beat estimates. Average earnings rose by 2.2% excluding bonus and grew by 1.9% including it.

Pound touched 1.575 post unemployment release, however inflation report pushed it towards 1.564 as report showed weaker inflation. However not much was new in the report that has not been iterated by BOE policymakers.

* Inflation for March has dropped to zero percent, still not an unexpected one. BOE officials including Mark Carney has warned against it.

Mark Carney' arithmetic table and inflation projection -

In his letter to Exchequer Mr. Osborne, BOE Governor, presented a nice arithmetic table explaining why inflation might be down in first quarter.

* In the table, it shows during pre-crisis period of 1997-2007, food Energy and other goods contributed about 0.4% to overall inflation compared to -1.1% in March, 2015. Services contributed about 1.6% to the inflation for the same period compared to 1.1% in March, 2015 thus contributing about -2% to headline inflation.

It is clear that, BOE official especially Mr. Carney blames energy and food for such low headline figure and would likely remain mute especially when oil is showing some signs of comeback and long end yields rose sharply. In the press conference he mentioned that no further stimulus is required.

Pound is down around 1.566 and might still go down a bit further, however will soon start looking beyond the report. Support around breakout level of 1.55-1.555 remains strong.


http://fxwire.pro/Mark-Carneys-arithmetic-mean-table-means-no-further-stimulus-35595

http://www.fxwirepro.com/data/charts/20150513f380745bcarney's%20table.jpg.jpg

Today Bank of England published its Quarterly inflation report. That followed a speech from Governor Mark Carney.

Pound has taken a hit erasing all previous gains from strong unemployment report and wage growth.

Unemployment rate dropped by 0.1% to 5.5% as expected, while average 3 months earnings growth beat estimates. Average earnings rose by 2.2% excluding bonus and grew by 1.9% including it.
Pound touched 1.575 post unemployment release, however inflation report pushed it towards 1.564 as report showed weaker inflation. However not much was new in the report that has not been iterated by BOE policymakers.

Inflation for March has dropped to zero percent, still not an unexpected one. BOE officials including Mark Carney has warned against it.
Mark Carney' arithmetic table and inflation projection

In his letter to Exchequer Mr. Osborne, BOE Governor, presented a nice arithmetic table explaining why inflation might be down in first quarter.

In the table, it shows during pre-crisis period of 1997-2007, food Energy and other goods contributed about 0.4% to overall inflation compared to -1.1% in March, 2015. Services contributed about 1.6% to the inflation for the same period compared to 1.1% in March, 2015 thus contributing about -2% to headline inflation.
It is clear that, BOE official especially Mr. Carney blames energy and food for such low headline figure and would likely remain mute especially when oil is showing some signs of comeback and long end yields rose sharply. In the press conference he mentioned that no further stimulus is required.

Pound is down around 1.566 and might still go down a bit further, however will soon start looking beyond the report. Support around breakout level of 1.55-1.555 remains strong.

http://www.fxwirepro.com/data/charts/20150512e30fc771yield%20return.jpg.jpg

Euro zone bond yields have risen the fastest, compared to other developed market counterparts.

Obvious reason for such is extremely one sided positioning in Euro zone bonds especially German bunds. While a sudden rush for exit might be creating such heavy price swings and high volatility.

However fundamentally speaking inflation poses greater risk for Euro zone than US and one might assume that it might be behind this sudden bond rout.

Why inflation is a greater threat to Euro zone?

• European Central Bank's (ECB) asset purchase program has pushed Euro to its lowest level in a decade making Euro zone countries extra vulnerable to rising energy prices. Euro zone imports most of its energy needs from outside making it vulnerable to inflation importing. Moreover energy inflation is called bad inflation, which Mario Draghi might not be looking for.
• ECB has just started its bond purchase program on March 9, 2015. Higher inflation will increase debate inside governing council over the purchase program that leaves ECB with two dilemma. Continuing bond purchase amid inflationary environment would pose risk of striking higher inflation and ECB to fall very behind the curve and cutting short the purchase program might derail the recovery seen in recent past.

Euro and Euro zone fixed income traders should keep sharp eye on European inflation indicators and commentaries from ECB and its vocal critique German Bundesbank. Euro is currently trading at 1.123, driven by bund yields.

(Source: http://www.fxwirepro.com/data/charts/20150512e30fc771yield%20return.jpg.jpg)

http://www.fxwirepro.com/data/charts/20150512644858aaphp.png.png

Exports rebounded more strongly than expected in March, with shipments up 7.4% m/m sa. This followed a more modest recovery of +4.6% m/m sa in February, though exports still remain some 12.1% below the recent peak reached in November - pointing to further room for recovery from here.

The normalisation of port operations in February following congestion in prior months likely helped support a stronger recovery in March.

The recovery was driven by non-electronics (particularly machinery and mining), with electronics shipments actually declining on a m/m sa basis.

By country, exports were particularly strong to the US, China, and Japan, rising 9.9%, 8.6%, 8.4% m/m sa respectively.

(Source: http://fxwire.pro/Philippines-exports-rebound-following-easing-of-port-congestion-34719)

Euro bonds: The sharp rise in Euro zone bond yields and further appreciation of the euro last week might look like a response to the recent improvement in the Euro zone's economic performance. But the renewed rise in oil prices is perhaps a more likely driver with different implications for growth.

Greece barrier: Euro zone executives come into sight more and more resigning to some form of Greek sovereign debt default, we suspect that this would restore the economy and secure the country's membership of the euro. Discretionary power exercised by the central bank (ECB) has put it at the heart of Greece's euro turmoil.

Inflation: The inflation rate in the Euro area was recorded at 0% in April of 2015. Inflation rate in the Euro area averaged 2.12% from 1991 until 2015. Inflation rate in the Euro area is reported by the Eurostats.

Technically we could smell the intermediate trend can gear up with upswings although we may see some minor hick ups due to prevailing drama in Greece aggravates the large economy. However that looks to be tackled by ECB's smart moves.

Trading & Hedging Insights:

With rational economic measures evidenced in Euro zone we can sense some sort of strength in Euro over Canadian dollar. Hence, we would anticipate the euro's appreciation over Canadian dollar. These calculations simply because of accurate euro's intrinsic price valuation there's nothing wrong with CAD though.

As we perceive the positive notes by Euro zone could prop up the EURCAD currency cross to bounce back to its original highs, the traders can be the beneficiary's if they build long positions in Futures.

On hedging front, we recommend the below strategy for medium term perspectives.

Derivatives insights:
Option strategy: Bullish Calendar Spread

On the downside risk perspective for CAD we are bullish to advocate a calendar spread on EURCAD currency cross. The reason why are we advocating calendar spread is that to ensure to spare the euro zone's high volatility factor aside.

This strategy can be established through selling a call option either of ATM or OTM as they are relatively cheaper over ITM and buying another call option of same strike price with longer maturity (far month contract).

Profit for such positions may typically be generated due to more time decay to expiration. The chances of hitting our targets will have Theta (time measure) benefits.

Break even at expiry would be the strike price plus premium.

(Source: http://fxwire.pro/Economic-measures-to-increase-Euro-advantages-34452)

The March deceleration in US non-farm payrolls (NFP) to 126,000 was a blip and look for a rebound to 245,000 in April (Friday, 08:30 ET), higher than the consensus view of 230,000.

This would be consistent with indicators suggesting labour-market activity has remained healthy, despite recent uneven activity growth.

Q1 GDP grew only 0.2% q/q SAAR according to the first release. But the April ISM employment sub-index edged up 0.1ppt to 56.7, a third straight gain; and jobless claims have remained anchored below 300,000, a level historically consistent with full employment.

ADP employment data was a disappointment at only 169,000 after a revised 175,000, but ADP imperfectly correlates with payrolls.

(Source: http://fxwire.pro/US-April-payrolls-likely-rebounding-to-245000-33223)

BTC/EUR Short term outlook

http://www.fxwirepro.com/data/charts/20150506995be774R3(BTCEUR).png.png

BTC/EUR is struggling to close above 221 (200 day 4HMA) and any trend reversal can happen only above that level.

On the upside minor resistance is around 221 (200 day 4HMA) and any break above would extend gains till 235/240 in short term. The pair's short term support is around 206 and any break below will extend loss till 200/193.

http://www.fxwirepro.com/data/charts/20150506fb349e4eR2(BTCUSD).png.png

BTC/USD is trading well above both short term resistance $237 (trend line joining $269.90 and $258.80) and also long term resistance $225 (trend line joining $299 and $257.48) and this confirms short term bullishness, a jump till $258 cannot be ruled out.

The pair's major resistance is around $244

On the down side short term weakness only below $224 and any break below will take the pair further down till $211.
 Indicator (Daily chart)

CCI (50) - Buy

Woodies CCI (14) - Buy

Ichimoku- Buy

It is good to buy around $235 with stop around $224 for the target of $258.

(Source: http://fxwire.pro/BTC/USD-Short-Term-outlook-32776)

• PMI services data will provide updates on the strength of the euro area (0800 GMT) and UK economies (0830 GMT) in April. For the euro area as a whole, these are final estimates of already released data and are expected to be unchanged. There will, however, be new estimates for some countries including Italy and Spain. In the UK, the March estimate was a 7-month high, suggesting that momentum in the services sector remains solid. For April, Lloyds Bank sees for some modest easing in the headline balance to 58.5, this would still point to stronger momentum in the UK's services sector than suggested by the preliminary estimate of Q1 GDP data.
• In the US the ADP employment estimate (1215 GMT) will provide the last update on the April labour market prior to Friday's payrolls report. A monthly gain of about 200k is expected. The ADP report is by no means an infallible predictor of payrolls. It failed to predict March's soft data and the average differential of the initial estimates over the last 24 months has been about 35k. Nevertheless, its historic correlation with the official payrolls number has been at least as good as any other indicator and so an outturn close to expectations would be an important signal that payrolls growth is likely to rebound in April.  Several Fed speakers including Fed Chair Yellen will provide updates on their thinking during the day.

(Source: http://fxwire.pro/Daily-Economic-Outlook-May-6th-2015-32734)

Canada's merchandise trade report massively missed expectations (-3.0bn vs est. -0.8bn) with the deficit wideningto a record in March, and the Feb deficit revised much wider as well (to -2.2bn from 1.0bn).

In volume terms, the picture was not much better, with an export gain of 1.5% in March only partly unwinding a large revision in Feb to -4.2% (was - 3.0%).

Import volumes were up 1.8% from a revised 2.5% drop in Feb (was -1.7%). A clear driver in this report was softer energy prices, and volumes are still slightly up in Q1 (now expected to add 0.2ppt vs 0.5ppt prior).

A larger inventory build leaves the economists still projecting flat growth for the quarter. There were no FX implications from BoC Dep.

Gov. Wilkins' speech on "Liquid Markets for a Solid Economy", which was essentially a summary of earlier released public consultation papers on the framework for financial market operations and emergency lending assistance policies.

(Source: http://fxwire.pro/Canadas-merchandise-trade-report-massively-missed-expectations-32698)

From a low of 7bp on 20 April, Bund yields are up five-fold to close Friday at 37bp. Over the same period, the US 10-year gained 22bp to 2.11% and EUR/USD gained 5 ticks to 1.12.

Some easing of the worst fears on Greece is part of the explanation, but the further signs that inflation is bottoming out were also at work.

The April HICP data for the euro area showed headline inflation exit negative territory at 0.0% yoy and core inflation hold stable at 0.6%.

At the same time, the latest batch of PMI data showed a weaker rate of expansion, raising concerns on the effectiveness on QE. That the euro area QE euphoria was bound to fade comes as no real surprise.

The ECB has repeatedly warned governments that with a stronger fiscal policy and stronger efforts on structural reforms, QE would not be able to secure a firm and sustainable recovery.

The next ECB meeting is still some time away on 3 June, but by then it will be clear that the central bank may have been too quick to declare victory for QE - not so much on inflation, but in terms of real economic growth.

The ECB's staff projections look for GDP to recover to 1.5% in 2015, 1.9% in 2016 and 2.1% in 2017.

"Our own forecast is for the euro area economy to remain stuck closer to 1.5% across this forecast horizon. Come September 2016, we expect the ECB to deliver some further QE due to disappointing growth as reform remains insufficient", Says Societe Generale.

It is thus no surprise that the euphoria on the policy is fading with the realisation that combination of inflation and growth materialising is not quite what markets were hoping for, with growth likely to disappoint.

(Source: http://fxwire.pro/Euro-area-QE-euphoria-is-fading-and-the-ECB-is-too-upbeat-31928)

Atriark has launched investment services for digital currencies like Bitcoin, litecoin, Namecoin, etc to enable investors to easily acquire large positions in bitcoin and altcoins. The said services include everything from acquisition to being educated on the process to safely secure and store digital currencies.

Claiming to provide safe and secure offline storage, the company has launched the new services to benefit from the unprecedented growth that digital currencies offer. Though Atriark initially began as a large group of mining pools, it is now spreading out its reach to new segments.

Making use of its mining pools, as well as a global network of other sources, it now enables investors to instantaneously exchange fiat currency to any of the largest digital currencies, such as Bitcoin, Litecoin, Peercoin and Namecoin. The recent move will enable the users to book profits when the exchange values of the cryptocurrencies go up.

(Source: http://fxwire.pro/Atriark-launches-investment-services-for-digital-currencies-29993)

A defunct Russia-based bitcoin exchange has recently released its source code to the bitcoin community, while the country is gearing up to crackdown the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

The exchange took to the Bitcoin Talk forum and Reddit to make the announcement and said that it seeks to help the global bitcoin industry evolve by letting other companies to incorporate its software.

The platform was founded by three members through self-funding and spending nearly $100,000 to reach an alpha version. However, confronted with Russia's rising hostile regulatory environment, they decided to discard their launch and make their work public instead.

"The bitcoin community is open source at its core and we wanted to contribute somehow. Giving away our source code turned out to be the logical step to show our love to the community. The bitcoin ecosystem needs to reunite at these times more than ever before." Project manager Ivan Starinin told CoinDesk.

(Source: http://fxwire.pro/Russian-bitcoin-exchange-makes-its-source-code-public-29939)

http://www.fxwirepro.com/data/charts/2015042790fd9a0epercentage%20enery.jpg.jpg

Energy segment is trading in red today. Weekly performance at a glance in chart & table.

Oil (WTI) -

WTI is struggling to make further gains $60 looks to be initial target, partial profit booking is recommended and next target is coming around $63-$65 area.

Dovish FOMC and weaker dollar might provide further ammunition. EIA stock details would be important focus.

WTI is currently trading at $57.3/barrel. Immediate support lies at $55-54.6, $51.2-50 and resistance at $58.9-59.7, $64-$65
Oil (Brent) -

Since last week, Brent has outperformed WTI, as larger crude imbalance remains an US phenomenon. Price has cleared resistance around 65 area. Further gains seems to be on card.
Brent-WTI moving up, currently trading at $7.8/barrel. Brent might be targeting $69.6-$70 level as initial target.
Brent is trading at $65.2/barrel. Immediate support lies at 61.8-61.4, $58-57 area and resistance at $ 70 region.
Natural Gas -

Natural gas is once again worst performer. Price has reached initial target around $2.44/mmbtu.

Next price target is coming close to $2.15/mmbtu. Traders should be prepared for higher volatility. Resistance around $2.84 remains crucial.

Natural Gas is currently trading at 2.47/mmbtu. Immediate support lies at $2.12 area & resistance at $2.71.
WTI
+-0.03%
Brent
-0.37%
Natural Gas
-2.41%

(Source: http://fxwire.pro/Commodities-snapshot-energy-29754)

This week on Wednesday, FOMC will be announcing monetary policy decisions. Investors should keep watch of inflation expectation to gauge, how the expectation might change in coming days and what might be influencing its move.

Inflation expectation in US, as measured by 5 year 5 year (5y5y) forward inflation expectation rate reached peak of 2.17% in February 27, 2015 and from there dovish FOMC has pushed commentary in march has pushed expectation towards 1.94%.
Expectation pattern in 2015 indicating that inflation expectation might have bottomed out.

In April, inflation expectation have risen steadily from below 2% and reached to new peak this year on Monday April 20th at 2.18% before settling at 2.08% on last Friday.
What might influence expectations this week?

Upbeat forecast by FED for second and third quarter this year will provide upward pressure to inflation expectation, whereas in that case stronger dollar would provide headwinds.

Effects would be somewhat similar, should FOMC choose to remain downbeat. In such case weaker dollar would provide support.

In a third scenario, FOMC just might indicate delay in rate hike, which would push dollar downwards. In such case it would vital to gauge price of oil is exerting how much pressure to inflation expectation.
In latter half of the year dollar would find support in inflation expectation, should it keep rising steadily. Domestic demand is the key to US inflationary pressure.

http://fxwire.pro/Watch-out-for-inflation-expectation-this-week-29538

CoinHako, a Singapore-based bitcoin wallet service, has recently announced that it is the first ever Asian exchange to fully insure bitcoin reserves and it believes that the insured bitcoin services will attract lots of customers. For this purpose it has hired BitGo.

CoinHako said that in order to up the security, it was obvious for it to insure the bitcoin. The customers who did not consider investing in bitcoin thinking that it is unsafe will prefer CoinHako now.

CoinHako Co-Founder Yusho Liu said that as a result of this insurance, users' deposits in CoinHako's hot and cold wallets are now protected against hacking and theft.

However, he said that the insurance will not cover lost or stolen bitcoin resulting from individual user's negligence to maintain secure control over their login credentials. He added that they were planning to integrate BitGo's multi-sig security even before they revealed the insurance-based offerings.


(Source: http://fxwire.pro/CoinHako-insures-bitcoin-reserves-29480)