Quote from: omonuyak on August 26, 2017, 09:16:08 AM

Bitcoin is not yet in the bubble! Though we have seeing significant growth based on your analysis. We expect in years to come to see bitcoin above $500,000. Some one has said on this forum that " when bitcoin is in the bubble we may see one satoshi to be equal one dollar" Remember op bitcoin has not gone mainstream yet, if we go mainstream we may see bitcoin been accepted in all the social media and online or offline stores.

Quote from: BitcoinHodler on August 26, 2017, 12:45:56 PM

Quote from: giffen on August 26, 2017, 09:02:07 AM

Whether it can be considered a bubble or not remains more of a philosophical question, but it is obvious that we will not observe the similar growth rate in bitcoin in the coming years.

first you need to make up your mind, it is either a bubble or a growth. it can not be both and it is pretty obvious which one it is. there is nothing "philosophical" about it!

Personally I strongly believe that it is a classical example of a bubble, I called it "a philosophical question" just because many of us disagree on this, like you for instance.

I am also puzzled by all these predictions about BTC reaching $500k, $1 mln, etc. Let's just do some simple math. Assuming we have now a total supply of 16,529,587 BTC and this supply remains the same when the price of one BTC hits 500 000USD, the whole market capitalization will be 8 264 793 500 000 USD. Obviously it will be much higher because the BTC supply volume will rise. If you take the maximum amount possible of 21 mln BTC priced at 500000 USD this will make the market cap of 10 500 000 000 000 USD. What is 10.5 trillion USD in real life? It almost equals the whole size of the US economy($18.6 tn). And it is a bit larger than the whole Chineese bond market ($9.4 tn) which is one of the largest markets in the world consisting of hundreds of instruments.
Well, I can imagine the whole crypto market comprised of thousands of cryptocurrencies reaching the capitalization of the third largest bond market in the world. But only one instrument getting there? No, this is extremely unlikely.

Quote from: dbc23 on August 26, 2017, 01:31:08 PM

That kind of monstorous gain simply from buying and holding is likely not going to happen again. It's clearly still possible to get "lucky" and hit 1000x level gains in rare situations and this year has had more than a few 100x opportunities.

Personally I only have 3 holdings I consider LONG term (cold wallet, planning to leave alone for years. Everything else I see as mid-term (within the year) or short-term (riding daily high/low).

I highly suspect the true bubble will burst as many of this years biggest ICOs are slowly unable to deliver on their promises and devalue substantially leaving many spec investors out money. If/when that happens a lot of the easy money flowing in will dry up forcing sell-offs without the predatory buy-in recoupment we've been seeing this year.

It'll be much like the dotcom burst when the unicorn companies all started filing for bankruptcy. A good lesson there though is even with NASDAQ being shredded in the late 90s a good number of companies survived and thrived and some savvy investors still did VERY well in tech over the following decade.

This is a good point about Nasdaq! It rose from 100 points in 1971 to 3940 points in 1999 before the crash. So, it took Nasdaq 29 years to grow 39x times. Compare this to 430000x in 7 years

Quote from: iram1011 on August 26, 2017, 01:12:51 PM

I don't see any other option than cryptocurrencies which could give 430000x profit in 7 years. There might be some altcoins which may have this potential but just like Bitcoin in 2010, you would be skeptical of it. You won't trust it. Nobody was sure of the success of Bitcoin in 2010. Those initial investors somehow blindly bet on it. So will be the case of any altcoin that can give unpredictable return in 7 years.

Find an altcoin for your blind bet! It is just a game of choosing right coin at right time.

This is true about being sceptical. However I think many of us didn't even know about Bitcoin in 2009-2010 and this is the problem. I think that it would be great to discuss things which we are sceptical about now, who knows maybe we will stumble across the next bitcoin somehow)

giffen

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