TL;DR: WTT good. Save money. My estimate: $2 to $2.50 each when listed on exchanges.

Quote from: aycaramba on August 02, 2017, 05:15:28 PM

I believe they were surprised they didn't sell out and didn't have a plan B.

It isn't like they minted 30,000,000 physical WTT tokens, put them in a warehouse, then tried to sell them. The tokens are electronic assets created on demand as they're purchased. The offering constraints were 1) A maximum number of WTT to be sold and 2) A deadline after which WTT would no longer be sold.

They weren't required to sell a certain number of WTT; rather, the number of WTT sold determines how much hosting capacity they'll build and the timing and degree to which their post-buildout plans can be executed.

Think of it this way: Would you be disappointed if you wrote an Apple and Android app and sold only 22,000,000 copies rather than 30,000,000? Would your company fold for the lack of an additional 8,000,000 units sold, units with an infinitesimal marginal cost of production? Of course not. It may limit how many more people you can hire to write and market your next great app, but it wouldn't be a failure.

Quote from: aycaramba on August 02, 2017, 05:15:28 PM

In hindsight it was good not to invest as there is way more supply than demand for now

Supply of what? No physical WTT tokens were created, the only supply constraint was the self-imposed 30,000,000 unit limit. The supply of WTT exactly matches the demand; that's what happens with non-physical assets with a near-zero marginal cost of production. What is the supply of the theoretical app mentioned above? You don't have any physical inventory, copies are sold as they're paid for, and the quantity supplied exactly matches the quantity demanded.

If I was going to be critical of anything with the WTT offering I would say they could have done a better job promoting it to a wider audience and explaining the benefits. I think they did a great job selling a new concept in a relatively young market with so much hype, fraud, and uncertainty. In other words, they didn't generate enough demand, but for a project spanning continents, and with dozens of people from half a dozen companies working on it, I think the offering was quite successful. There were a lot of things that happened during the offering that were beyond their control, like BIP 91, Bitcoin Cash, SEC DAO announcement, multiple wallet and ICO hacks, AlphaBay shutdown, and much more. So, hair-on-fire earthquake alien invasion moon exploding tightrope chainsaw juggling with Satan's ex-wife complaining about her 2/3 caff double ristretto affogato venti mango 2% protein double blended with whip caramel drizzle salted caramel topping vanilla bean frappuccino.

Quote from: aycaramba on August 02, 2017, 05:15:28 PM

not sure why anybody would pay 1.20 USD/WTT under these circumstances.

WTT owners will save between $350 and $537 per kWh per year depending on the size of their operation, assuming 95% uptime for their mining rigs. One kWH requires 1,000 WTT, or $1,200 at $1.20 per WTT. Savings exceed WTT cost after 2.23 to 3.43 years under these assumptions.

I'm not sure why a miner wouldn't pay $1.20 per WTT under these circumstances.

Assuming a 4% discount rate, a miner planning for a five-year WTT useful life would pay between $1.56 and $2.39 per WTT, or $2.84 to $4.36 with a ten-year useful life. WTT give miners the right to access extremely inexpensive electricity and managed hosting for 50 years, so the longer you think mining will be economical, the higher the WTT net present value.

Quote from: aycaramba on August 02, 2017, 05:15:28 PM

They will dump the remaining WTT soon as facilities will be in operation in November.

No one from Giga Watt or Cryptonomos has said as much. They've been consistent in their messaging on the topic: No more WTT will be issued. Again, WTT not stockpiled in a warehouse, purely digital asset, created only when purchased, and offering ended 31 July 2017.

Granted, there is nothing preventing them from doing another token offering, but I don't think they would do so until they've built out enough hosting capacity to accommodate all WTT holders and ran the operation at capacity for at least six months. They need to spend $20+ million, build 22 MW of hosting capacity, get thousands of mining rigs set up, operationalize their hosting, billing, mining pool, customer service, and equipment repair processes, and complete a thousand other tasks major and minor, none of which can be overlooked without negatively impacting their customers and reputation.

I doubt new tokens would go for less than $1.20 if they were offered again. Closer to $2.50. And $2 to $2.50 once they're listed on exchanges.

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