Quote from: aoihs00 on August 13, 2018, 07:51:28 AM

Year 2018, its been rough year until now starting from the first day. When December 2017 hike came into effect then everyone thought that next year bitcoin and most of the Top altcoins will spike themselves by doubling themselves in volume. With that thought in mind most of the people invested heavily at wrong time.

That was the initial event when 2018 started. We surged through mega dump in the period January to February by dropping ourself to 16,000 USD and then 10,000 USD all the way down to 30-40% from ATH of December.

Traders Who Invested in December :

These people suffered a lot due to this kind of drop. They already went down by 40% from initial investment and there is no way they are going to recover that investment until the time they see 16K plus prices. But according to what I read over the forum most of the people with hard truth sold their coins already in the bear and incurred with huge losses ranging from 20-40%.

Learning : This event taught us that whenever the market goes many folds high then its the worst time to invest. Do not think that if the market has hiked itself heavily means it has become stronger and it will grow even further. No, that is the worst outcome you can predict from that. So whenever the crypto currency is in bull run ( ~ 20% + high from initial value) then its not the time to enter the market but to halt your trading operations.

Traders Who Invested in February to May :

These were the traders who had the excited state after the ATH's. They made investment whenever the price dropped below 10K USD during this period. We had 4-6 such occurrences when the BTC price moved from 10K to 8K USD and it was the exact time when you will see heavy rush in the market and more 24 hours volume than any other period. However this was too soon to predict that the BTC might go boom at anytime after tomorrow, then after day after tomorrow but nothing like that happened and BTC dropped even further to lowest of 2018 that is 6K USD by April midway. People took further shot of investing at this period and then this pumped the market to 8K USD by the end of May. They had great time with this peak because most of them got the profits as they invested during the trough and sold at crest. Perfect trade! But not the best one.

Learning: Investment should not be done in excitement because it may result in some sort of loss which could be unprecedented. In this group not all the people got benefited because many of the bought the coins at 10K USD which was still the highest point until the May. However there were people who bought the bitcoin by looking at the bottom price of BTC which was around 6K USD. Nonetheless they made great profits after BTC started its wave off the trough reaching 8 to 10K USD. So the second group here analysed the situation by somewhat studying the bottom price and made the profits.

Traders Who Invested in May to August :

These are the group of investors who have already understood that this year is not so good for bitcoin and it is all surrounded with the Bearish Trend of bitcoin and even other coins indeed. This taught good lesson and people have now created strategy of buying bitcoin by investing only when they see the bottom rates. Sometimes it is hard to see the bottom rate but with the current years movement it is finalised that bitcoin will never go down to 5.5-6K USD looking at the current trade volume of bitcoin. This group will benefit the most in this year because they are probably holding their coins, they know very well 8, 10K USD is nothing but illusion and what they need to do is, to wait and see BTC moving above 10K USD to have proper sell of from the bear trend.

Leanring : The best thing to do is, research your "trade trend". After looking at 8 months of data one can surely state that we are not going off the bearish trend so easily and thus it might get difficult to get profits in such time. So the best way to keep buying at the troughs and whenever you see the bottom price. DONT rush the bitcoin selling whenever you see little green spikes, that would be mad decision to take because you are still selling in the Bear trend and not profiting with great % share.

Bear Fear

For those who are not capable of having control over their investment can do one easy stuff : They can go for the short term trading along with the swing mode. Though we are in the bear mode then also crypto currencies keep fluctuating within that bear wave by 5-10% on a day or two basis. It can be done with careful selection of coins with such volatility and still have profits being in the bear. With the time you may think that Bear is nothing and just nausea which can be overcome very easily.

My Conclusion from 2018 "Trade Trend"

I was very much disappointed when I first saw the dumpsters in crypto currencies as my investment in versatile coins was going down very crazy. But over the period I did notice these troughs and crest and cant tell you how important they are while investing into the crypto. Whenever I see wide open graph of BTC or any currency then we can clearly see that from January to August every coin has made a wavy pattern with long troughs and crest and then you realise that you could have bought at lowest rates and that too many times and could have sold at high rates many more times. This way profiting yourself multiple times and by re-inevstign your profits.

Key Notes :

1) There is still great possibility that this trend will continue.
2) There is NO POINT in asking when moon will come, because you can still gain profits whether its bear or bull.
3) Bearish trend is just your fear, it doesnt matter for how long it will stay.
4) Try to look at the smaller picture rather than bigger one, because no one knows the future trends.
5) You don't really need TA and other analysts to let you know whats coming, because you can predict whats the trough and when is the crest to buy and sell.

I believe that trading in the bear market is very difficult and the liquidity is very low, you can see that bitcoin and altcoin prices are constantly falling, the market is bearish in the long run, so to To minimize risk, I believe you should have a specific plan before the transaction. At present, the market capitalization is only $ 200 billion so I think the bitcoin price will continue to fall in the near future.

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