Quote from: prtomic on April 05, 2018, 10:04:05 AM

Paycent analysis

So I tried to do valuation of PYN token. I put some figures inside, and this is the result. You can do your own math, show your analysis or change my assumptions based on your personal view. But I have no intention to debate and elaborate to much. I've made my investment decision.

Target: 5M users of future exchange and app. Target for cards 1M.

And here is my view:
When Paycent opens trading platform (which has been announced in official Telegram group) , the first target should be 5M users, what is around CEX.IO size. If it manages to get that number of users than 1M cards look like reachable target.

And I used CEX exchange for benchmark, since they trade only limited number of major coins, what will be offered by Paycent as well. And they dont have their own card. During the hype around ATH for BTC they used to have almost 5 times more active users. I calculate the number of active users by estimated monthly website visits. Xapo is around 1.4M monthly users with around 1M app download on play store.

So the first target to aim is to reach 5M users of future exchange and app. Target for cards 1M. Average daily volume of fiat to crypto is something hard to evaluate. But lets say that out of 1M users 5% will use the card per day. 50.000 users * 50$ average transaction. That's 2.500.000 $ daily volume.

From the whitepaper, benefits for token holders - passive income (dividend):

30% commission sharing to token holders. It would be around 275M yearly for profit sharing, based on the volume I estimated. The company is burning their coins, and it plans only one more ICO phase, which will used for acquiring a bank. So two phases could be around 70M tokens which will be stored (staked) for commission, so around 4$ per token in dividends yearly. Nice passive income.
Id say dividend could reach 1$ per PYN per year and could change our lives. 4$ dividend per token could be reached when we enter mass adoption, and since Paycent is operating in Asia, which has young and big population, this is also realistic. And you know that the company plan is to expand the business to Europe as well? Does this sound right to you guys? And I think this is the realistic target, we could reach within 12-48 months.

PYN market price:

My price targets for PYN token (please don't mix it with dividend). Short term 1$, which is around our competitor tenX market price. TenX has the app, but they don't have a solution for a card. And when the cards are delivered, the fair value should be 1-2$. The 5$ mark could be reached, when first bigger commission splitting is done with token holders. Afterwards it depends on the amount of commission. If we hit 4$ reward per token per year then well see two digit value of PYN.

So Im confident that well hit 1M cards as the major milestone. The marketing campaign will start right after the cards arrive.

We can play with figures back and forth, but however we do that well have 1$/1PYN dividend as passive income.
And we get it from revenue, not from the profit. In stock exchange market you always calculated based on EBITDA. So basically after the costs are deducted, and here we get paid first!

Thank you for your wonderful contribution. The analysis you have presented is very informative. I am excited for the future of Paycent

Ncognit0

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