Quote from: Raize on July 05, 2013, 03:17:44 PM

I see a lot of people commenting that weren't around from June 2011 to November 2011. Those were pretty dark times. It got so bad that most miners were looking at huge losses on GPU purchases and sold their miners, especially the Europeans who had higher electricity costs and the people on both coasts in the US. In August of 2011, it was briefly more profitable to mine Namecoins, so about a quarter of the miners switched to it and killed that coin (till merged mining happened).

The fact of the matter is that new ASIC miners can mine at a huge profit right now. Even at 200 difficulty, [at these prices] ASIC miners are still making tens of dollars per day. The price has a ways to fall yet before it becomes rational again. You can pretty much mark my words, without a huge buyer out there to scoop up these coins, we won't see a new all-time high in USD price for at least a year. We either need large interest in Bitcoin (billions of dollars of investing) or for miners to start hoarding, and right now there is little incentive for either.

Of course, I say this as a miner who isn't selling his coin, but that's because I'm irrational and can afford to be irrational in the short term for the long term gains. Trying to call the "bottom" is too hard for me, instead I'll likely just mine and hoard as I can afford to, and sell in a little over a year as the market gets irrational again and I become more rational in response. There's some possibility that this isn't July 2011, and is actually the equivalent of February/March 2011, but given the number of folks in Speculation and on reddit that keep posting that 300 image of "Hold" despite the obvious fact that ASIC mining is far too profitable, I am leaning more toward the former right now.

Of course, always remember the market can be irrational longer than you can remain solvent, don't bet the farm on the success or failure of Bitcoin, folks.

Noted.

asically

Posts

Merits