Quote from: fenican on September 16, 2013, 01:36:33 PM

One of the many fallacies with Martingale is that bettors think extended losing streaks are rare when, in fact, they are an exceedingly common - and statistically probable - outcome in any long sequence of bets

Perhaps a bit OT (frankly, moving OT sounds a great idea at this point).

Question: is there a way to view my investment balance over time as a chart? The past 30 days would be great to illustrate my question.

The past few weeks I saw my investment profits in JD go from 0.80 BTC Mondays up to 1.08 BTC Sundays only to see it go back down to 0.78 BTC the next Monday morning (Eastern Time zone).

Understanding that 10% of profits I make in a given week I wonder if others are seeing this would like to comment on why this is happening?

10% of (1.08-0.80) = 0.028

So Monday I should see my profit stand at 1.062 BTC but it's currently at about 0.78 BTC.

Volatility I understand, even this behaviour is statistically possible (lots of players losing Sundays but then they go on a winning streak last-Sunday to early-Monday). But this seems like a very low probability to occurr 3 weeks in a row.

Code:

2013-09-07 15655.98310993
2013-09-08 5150.63159109
2013-09-09 1663.19716859
2013-09-10 2809.54404842
2013-09-11 3895.55491310
2013-09-12 3776.94898158
2013-09-13 3569.81366765
2013-09-14 4849.77142126
2013-09-15 4188.36475008

Code:

biggest cumulative gains in last 24 hours

+--------+--------------+
| uid | profit |
+--------+--------------+
| 127021 | 221.02813105 |
| 13839 | 27.23663092 |
| 12433 | 16.019802 |
| 124162 | 13.8435 |
| 88818 | 8.2501 |
| 9780 | 5.73832733 |
| 129398 | 5.09825233 |
| 114382 | 4.256836 |
| 128071 | 3.71 |
| 125863 | 3.07536812 |
+--------+--------------+

biggest cumulative losses in last 24 hours

+--------+---------------+
| uid | profit |
+--------+---------------+
| 128039 | -119.95574434 |
| 23069 | -22.47396041 |
| 55555 | -19.08584 |
| 78612 | -7.4543464 |
| 128872 | -7 |
| 129734 | -6.76 |
| 110477 | -6.0217465 |
| 113327 | -4.7746 |
| 76634 | -4.4653 |
| 123187 | -4.337 |
+--------+---------------+

biggest cumulative amount wagered in last 24 hours

+--------+---------------+
| uid | wagered |
+--------+---------------+
| 127021 | 5266.83490895 |
| 128039 | 903.97145621 |
| 13839 | 597.19132332 |
| 23069 | 465.92495 |
| 9780 | 356.15823636 |
| 128119 | 273.19112971 |
| 129398 | 166.05712256 |
| 124162 | 127.9935 |
| 129734 | 100.38998501 |
| 125863 | 94.32733625 |
+--------+---------------+

jlcooke

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