Quote from: BobK71 on November 28, 2017, 06:05:33 PM

The last time I did this analysis, gold was a thousand times more expensive than Bitcoin, if we compare the same proportions of total supply. By now, Bitcoin has risen 30-fold, and so gold is only 30 times more expensive.

Of course, I was roundly dismissed for speculating Bitcoin could get anywhere near a six-figure price in dollars. If I was criticized for being too bullish on Bitcoin, today I might be seen as too bullish on gold.

How to answer the question -- where to from here? As I wrote recently, gold is objectively a better money for securing savers' freedom from governments and central banks. So, if the long-term price ratio is 10 to 1 in favor of gold, Bitcoin can still go up 3 times. It'd still be a great return by the standards of any asset, but Bitcoin is not quite as compelling as it used to be.

Especially, many early owners of Bitcoin, now flush with capital, who are also sympathetic to gold, might decide to sell some Bitcoin and buy gold at these prices.

We have to be careful here. This entire analysis was based on the (pretty common) assumption that governments and central banks have nothing to do with gold and Bitcoin prices, and that the future of Bitcoin is to be another limited-supply monetary asset like gold, but at an appropriate relative price. (The reality, at least with gold prices, is of course the opposite.)

So, the real question is what the Western elites want (and what China and Russia want, if they're able to counter the West in the field of monetary engineering.) If Western debt levels and resulting economic/social/political problems are so bad that the elites have decided to use cryptocurrency to effect a reset of the entire system, to effectively wipe out their debt and start afresh, as just after World War II, then the sky is the limit for Bitcoin and cryptos.

If, on the other hand, the Western elites are only preparing for such a reset by taking advantage of cheap crypto prices so far, then we have to watch the relative price to gold. The rise of Bitcoin, so far, is consistent with this scenario too. From here on, our thinking might have to change.

For the answer to that question, watch the news closely for the signs!

Gold is better for most "securing savers" but the reasons are not only to be safe from governments and central banks. it's also to secure the funds against the currency losing value.

Elsie123

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