Update 27 Oct:

Being a fan of Johnsons approach I made a google docs spreadsheet based on this thread.

Thought I would share it. I will try and improve the spreadsheet in the future to make it more interactive and show more data:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wfAzREX-FnwSrGDKfKNwndX2uc54q27mbhFp0gyQRcw/edit?usp=sharing

Exponential graph with line of best fist (blue). Red is a lower slope line based on possibility that exponential growth will be lower as we go forward in time.

Volatility will likely go down in future, plus being conservative lets choose a BETI of 1 for top of cycle (all time high BETI is 1.8 ).

Lets assume the next bubble is in 90 days. This would gives us cyclic price high of:

$20 468 based on line of best fit.

$14576 for conservative slope line.

If in 150 days we reach lowest BETI point with BETI of -1.7 (assuming lower volatility).

That gives us cyclic price low of :

$1672 for line of best fit.

$1152 for conservative line.

If the downturn is slower and we reach BETI low of -1.7 in 300 days. The price will be:

$2727 based on line of best fit.

$1727 based on conservative line.

And if we reach BETI of 1.46 (slightly below last BETI high) in 120 days. The price would be:

$35754 for line of best fit.

$25039 for conservative line.

danielW

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