Quote from: toknormal on June 17, 2016, 08:23:47 PM

Quote from: TERA on June 17, 2016, 08:10:03 PM

There is not a lot of visible buy support and it could potentially flash crash on a low volume, unless there are a lot of hidden orders. However, lately these books aren't nearly as reliable as they used to be and only serve as a partial indicator.

Watch out - order books are just about the most unrealiable indicator known to man for guaging demand.

Here's how they work:

[1] - if the market thinks the price is going to rise (doesn't have to be bullish sentiment, just expecting a rise)

Then the bids will thin out and the asks will thicken. This is because real demand goes off-order-book since nobody wants to push the price up more than they have to by placing orders so buyers stay hidden since they are not confident of having their orders filled below the spread gap.

Meanwhile, sellers DO place their orders at a measured distance above the spread gap so that they catch any spikes which lets them instantly cycle back into the market minutes later having accumulated at the back end of the spike.

[2] - if the market thinks the price is going to fall

Then exactly the opposite happens. The bids fill up and the asks thin out because fear has set in and sellers are nervous of placing orders that chase away precious liquidity, so sellers stay off-order-book this time. Meanwhile, large bids get placed a reasonable distance below the spread gap to catch any major dumps. Those large bids are not from people wanting to buy into the market (i.e. they are not genuine demand). They are "quick buck" operators who will immediately sell into the rise that follows the spikey plunge.

If the order book is balance, then the market is neutral in terms of expectation.

You can see this in realtime on Huobi in Bitcoinwisdom. As soon as the slightest small bull rally takes off, massive asks get instantly placed at intervals above the price, even though the price is rising. Then they get pulled just as the price approaches when there's no longer enough of a spread gap to turn the trade around and get back in with an accumulation.

So don't think for a minute that because there's a lot of bids that means there's a lot of demand or because there's a lot if asks there's a lot of bears. It's more likely that the exact opposite applies.

Thank you for this. Enlightening stuff! Kiss

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