Quote from: Lambie Slayer on March 04, 2020, 02:27:01 PM

Quote from: Ibian on March 04, 2020, 11:11:11 AM

Quote from: Phil_S on March 04, 2020, 10:54:19 AM

Quote from: Ibian on March 04, 2020, 09:21:14 AM

Quote from: Totscha on March 04, 2020, 09:17:54 AM

2% mortality rate?

Closer to 10%. This is one of the worse examples of misinformation, something really needs to be done about it.

On the cruise ship, I think about 700 got the virus (20%) and 6 of them died.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

706 infected, 600 active cases, 100 recovered, 36 in serious condition, 6 dead. So far.

The way the death rate is being calculated, you could just as easily look at the recovered compared to infected. Only 14% recover from the virus! So a 86% mortality rate!

Ive been trying to get some clarity on the mortality rate and bc you really cant trust even the rich first world democracies and the strong incentive to under test for infections, I cant find any more reliable sample than the Diamond Princess.

Its a perfect lab experiment. A large sample of people, plenty of time for a random and large group to get infected, and we know that all but a dozen or so were tested, whether they had symptoms or not.

There are no other examples of entire towns or villages where everyone was tested to my knowledge. This means that any sample of positive testing patients cant give you a good mortality rate because you have no way of knowing how many others in the vicinity had the virus but showed little to no symptoms.

I realize that its possible a few more could die from Diamond Princess, but imo highly unlikely, they have had plenty of time for the disease to play out according to established time lines. It takes a good while to declare patients recovered because they need as many as three or more tests that come back negative and the virus can leave particles in the body that trigger the test long after symptoms are gone.

So you have 6 out of 700 dead, or a .85% mortality. Thats pretty bad, but way better than many estimates. But....... we are forgetting why that .85% death rate is way to high. Its a cruise ship, this population sample is OLD! The average cruise ship passenger is almost two decades older than the average citizen according to a few quick google searches. Its not scientific, but anyone who has been on a cruise knows that its mostly older people.

So now things start looking a lot better. A ship full of old people passed this thing around and .85% died. Yes about 80 infections were crew members who were likely to be much younger on average. Guess what, not one crew member died.

All this leads me to strongly believe that there is no way in hell the true mortality rate is not somewhere a good bit below .85%. Some quick napkin and SOMA calculations tells me this sample of people with their advanced age, factoring in for the normal age of the 80 crew members, and using the death charts by age data available, extrapolates out to about a .40% mortality rate.

About 4 times deadlier than the flu and enough to overwhelm Wuhan's hospitals once about half a million people got infected in a short span.

A large chunk of the people that will die from this would have probably died in the next 6 months to a year anyway. Its just a strain on hospitals bc usually these people kick the bucket in a drawn out period, not all at once.

Flu season already puts a big strain on ICU beds each year, its not cost effective to have a large oversupply of them.

This strain will be much less in countries where healthcare is more of a free market.

Its easy to see why the commies in China got overrun, they have free healthcare for all which means a shitty healthcare system.

This virus is gonna hurt communist and socialist countries more than free market oriented countries. Thats bullish for Bitcoin.

TLDR: Its just the Flu x 4 bro, and its hella bullish bc money printers are in hysteria right now.

Think that the passengers are getting the better care possible. If the health system of a country colapses, there are people that is going to die bc they can't access to drugs, oxigen, etc. not only coronavirus patients, accidents victims, cancer victims, etc.

manitou

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