Quote from: fillippone on Today at 11:22:37 AM

The reference to CAPM, and in another interview to the Black&Scholes model, it is not meant to refer to their respective inventors winning the Nobel Prize, rather referring to the fact a class of models that don’t take demand in account does exist, and works, or worked, pretty well for a few decades. So, the lack of demand in the factors of the S2F model is not per se and indicator that the model is flawed

i fail to see how "a model exists that doesn't take into account demand" proves that the model predicts the future, ignoring one side of the equation it wants to predict (price is nothing else than supply and demand). more generalized: how do ~10 years of data and ~3 cycles from the past predict the future? especially if we don't know the demand, which of course is impossible, because no one knows the future...

Quote from: fillippone on Today at 11:22:37 AM

S2F models, without taking on consideration the demand, has an explanatory power of the 95% of the variance of bit pin price. Hence, modelling demand into this, a really cumbersome task, would improve the model of only 5%, at a great complexity cost. Are you sure this is going to dramatically change the global picture? Take into account S2F has never been a trading model, only a “final state” model, providing long term predictions.

it doesn't provide longterm price prediction cause it won't hold in some years (planb himself said that)

ndalliard

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