Quote from: MFahad on May 16, 2021, 07:15:02 AM

Quote from: fancy2973 on May 15, 2021, 10:53:45 PM

Quote from: buwaytress on May 13, 2021, 10:40:00 AM

Quote from: fancy2973 on May 12, 2021, 10:44:14 PM

Finally someone says it! Believe me there are so many so called "TA experts" whereas everybody with some (academic) background knows that TA is BS. One reason is the time the market has been around and a second reason is that the past is a bad indicator to correctly predict the future. I mentioned two years because it sounds to be a reasonable time horizon to have a fair chance to not find yourself in the middle of an ongoing crash at least at some point in time. But, and this is a big but, you never know. Can be the same problem in two years as it might be in six months.

I wouldn't go so far as to call it bs, what's BS is that you can swear by it and use it as a completely reliable tool -- it helps and it confirms, and it identifies possible opportunities, but I think the TA I enjoy the most is by those who know what the real deal is with it. Helpful, informative, and entertaining (I admit, I do indulge every now and then cause it's fun to fantasise haha).

I do point out the market's still far too young to build proper TA too -- 2013/14 if you want to be lenient, is still 2 years away from completing a decade's worth of data.

The problem with TA is that it doesn't capture the extremes at all. If you take the price decline in 2018 from 20k to - I don't recall exactly - let's say zero for the sake of explanatory power Tongue

Do you remember how many TA experts were wrong until we finally hit rock bottom? They corrected their analyses on an hourly basis. Last year start of the pandemic when markets out of a sudden moved to ATHs? I don't a single TA expert who said we are going to have record highs at the peak of the pandemic. What did TA do in 2007? Or 2000?
If you rely on TA and don't have a trading strategy like selling some here and there and not buy in again catching a falling knife, you'll lose everything. I know that's what you basically said that TA is just one tool of many, but there are people out there who follow these TA gurus because they talk as if they had a crystal ball but can actually show a convincing fake crystal ball in the form of their computer screens (which are - you may guess - not a crystal ball).

Technical analysis is not a future teller. It will just suggest the support and resistance and you can short and long based on the TA. To get the complete picture we need to add fundamental analysis and sentimental analysis along with TA to get a better picture but then again no one can predict the exact future.

Your second sentence is the exact contradiction of your first sentence. If you say TA is not a future teller, but you then say that based on TA you can actually make your investment decisions obviously for the future, what is true now?

As i explained before, TA can't predict the long tails, the unexpected events that could either get you rekt or make you rich. I have nothing against people using it as it is up to them if they like it, but I don't trust it. What is your TA worth if it turns out that Craig Wright is Satoshi and has a million Bitcoins?

fancy2973

Posts

Merits