Quote from: aerobatic on May 31, 2013, 03:32:35 PM

pure discussion...

lets ignore the (potentially high) risk of bfl delivering any units at all in a sensible timeframe and assume they will actually ship the units relatively soon once the problems are solved... and lets just focus on the value of an early delivery versus a new order...

if this is a june2012 order (1st batch?) lets assume (pure guess) it might arrive in aug/sept (2013)..

the problems theyve been having that prevented any shipments of this model will presumably eventually be cured, allowing them to start shipping and begin ramping up in volume.. perhaps theyre even stockpiling boxes ready to ship once problems are solved which could mean they hit their stride and ship a lot out in a short space of time. rumours of them trying to source a beefy enough psu etc. once sourced, the problem is cured. right?

53 btc, at today's price is er $7k ish. a new one, bought today and entering the queue at the end would retail would for $2.5k (a feb 2013 one was $1.5k), thus the premium for an early order is attracting approx $5k over list price. So the big question is, HOW MUCH EARLIER will it be? and whats that worth? is arriving, say 60-90 days earlier than a recent order, worth paying at least $5k premium for? has anyone figured this out...? whats the breakeven point?

-- Jez

At current BTC price and difficulty, this unit will earn roughly 2.5 btc per day ($320/day). At that rate, it will take the unit less than 22 days to make $7000.

There are nearly 12 months worth of orders placed after this unit. The potential number of units orders could be significant. I would guess it will take BFL many many months to catch up to current once they start shipping. I don't think 8-10 months is an unrealistic estimate of their catch-up time. Obviously, that's pure conjecture since no one knows how many units were ordered in the last 12 months, their projected units shipped per day, etc.

Jezzz

Posts

Merits