Quote from: Dennis7777 on October 07, 2015, 07:01:19 AM

Quote from: adaseb on October 07, 2015, 04:21:34 AM

Quote from: Dennis7777 on October 06, 2015, 09:56:36 PM

Quote from: fox19891989 on October 06, 2015, 09:42:20 PM

Quote from: Dennis7777 on October 06, 2015, 09:32:47 PM

-snip-
Also, there is something called Kelly formula https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_formula, which tells you how much you should risk in each bet when the bets are favourable (+EV) to you. But when the bets are unfavourable (-EV) to you, it tells you not to make the bet.

Your link about kelly formula is awesome, maybe we can learn good strategy from it, if we wanna be +EV, mastering math is a necessary thing. But I think every bet is independent, how to choose when to bet big, when to bet small?

Yes every bet is independent and so Kelly formula does not tell you to change your bet size based on your previous rolls, unlike in progressive strategies like martingale. Your bet size (as % of your total bankroll) should stay the same as long as the win chance and multiplier are unchanged.

This stragegy is better because if there is a large losing streak, you won't get taken out like in martingale however since there is still a house edge you can lose.

Hmm it seems you have misunderstood it. If you follow the Kelly formula, you would never ever bet in those dice, roulette, BJ or any games with a positive house edge, as all those bets give you a negative EV. Instead you would only be on the other side of the bet, either be the site owner or be a bankroll investor.

regardless of whateever forumla, one should approve a proven mistake repeated by others.

if the mass are losing, it means no one should really follow..

Udyr

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