Quote from: exstasie on Today at 09:04:58 AM

Quote from: coinbiz on January 07, 2021, 08:46:32 PM

Most people who think it "won't ever touch $15k again" haven't been around since the early days. Every bull run so far has been followed by a bear market decline of a minimum of 80%

Don't be over-confident. What goes up must come down.

Sure, but from where?

Bitcoin just crossed the 2017 ATH, and is only 2x above it. For it to crash into a bear market now would be totally unprecedented. We could go an order of magnitude higher first.

So yeah, an 80% drop from $300K? Definitely possible! But that gets you $60K, not $15K. Wink

Another data point working against you: no Bitcoin bear market has ever broken below the prior cycle's ATH. For that reason, sub-$20K is probably off the table.

The late '13 pump 'only' reached 4x the previous ATH of $260. And then it famously crashed well below it. Scaling up to take account of the bigger, slower, deeper market we have now it seems to me totally plausible that the bubble could burst before 100k. Really the whole shape of the market since 2016 is strikingly similar to a macro version of 2012-13, with '17 being similar to the April 13 peak and this one shaping up to be like a slow motion nov '13. Conditions and sentiment are quite different now to 2017, the newbies are more optimistic than the old lot and you can tell this just by looking at the way the market has ratcheted up since early 2019. Very different to the uncertainty and doom of 14/15 and even '16. Just like late 2013 vs the people who felt the pain of the 2011 crash, people feel invincible.

Put another way, if 2017 was a big elliot wave III, this is the V, just like april 13 was the iii and november was the v.

Never say never but I think it may be unwise to get married to the idea of a 2017 rerun. We're already just as vertical as the steepest parts of 2017.

Ektra

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