Quote from: nestex_one on Today at 08:09:20 PM

So a friend of mine does algorithmic trading on the stock market. He's tried time and again to use chatgpt or other AIs to help predict the direction of the stock market - along with massive amounts of input data, in addition to training data the LLMs were already provided with.

Guess what? Less than 5% accuracy in the prediction over a short timeframe (eg. if you ask it today, it's answer for tomorrow is inaccurate) except for a 'general direction'.

Useless for investing because a shoeshine boy could tell you the same news for less.

Now this is for a structured setup where there are sentiment forces and potentially predictable factors.

With chance-based games, I suspect this will be like using a coin flip to predict the output of another coin flip. Highly random. And because the information is not probabilistically actionable enough for the AI, I'm quite sure chatgpt will 'manufacture' fiction and give you a number / direction because you asked for it.

So that fictional pair of dice you told chatgpt about are about to get a fictional number. 🎲🎲

Or as we say in programming,

Code:

int randomValue = 6; // Guaranteed to be random! generated by a random dice throw

Nailed it.
What's more interesting is that most day traders can't beat the market too. There are tons of studies that demonstrate that the absolute most of day traders lose their money, and there is very little chance to succeed. I guess it is very unlikely that AI can do better at day trading.
The long-term trends though - the "general direction" - are way less risky and far more easy to predict and take advantage of. That's where the use of AI is likely beneficial. I remember reading about a hedge fund founded by a math PhD. The fund uses machine learning to predict market trends, and AFAIK, it has been consistently beating the market for decades, and even Berkshire Hathaway hasn't ever achieved this much. I don't remember the name of the fund tho.

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