Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 04:59:11 AM

Quote from: Xun hu on January 15, 2025, 10:03:53 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on January 13, 2025, 10:32:44 PM

There are a large number of diptwats, and even people who seem smart, who fuck around trading in and out of bitcoin based on their dumb ideas in regards to various manipulated metrics like bitcoin dominance, and so yeah, through bitcoin's history there has been a lot of people trying to sound smart in their descriptions of how their perceptions of how "bitcoin dominance" has changed over the years or during certain "seasons."

I agree with your statement, although I believe that the act of buying and selling by traders is a personal matter, but universally it brings harmful results. However, since there is freedom in the field of trading, traders should analyze other effective metrics for market analysis, such as on-chain data, fundamental analysis, trading volume, liquidity, and others, in addition to Bitcoin dominance, to make informed decisions.

Yes... so many traders either think that they are smart or that they can figure out how to trade in a way that is more profitable than if they had not fucked around with trading, when the facts of the matter remains that trading is ultimately a losing game for an overwhelming majority of normies.. so it remains way better to presume an inability to beat the market than presumptively expecting that you have any meaningful odds of beating it, especially when dealing with one of the best if not the best of assets that man has seen (namely bitcoin), so instead of remaining and accumulating value within a sure bet (or a pretty damned good bet), way too many normies fantasize that they can do even better by selling high and buying back lower, and it is a pretty rare trader that actually is able to beat a bitcoin investor who had mostly focused on accumulating and holding.. especially the longer the timeline the more likely that a trader has not even come close to the level of returns of holding and accumulating bitcoin, and really why would you? You have a sure bet (or pretty damned good bet) by buying bitcoin and you want to be smart ass and think that you can do better, and what you going to do? Tell others that they can do better also. What a bunch of nonsense.

By the way dominance is a dumb metric, and shows that you ar likely distracted into dumb things, including shitcoins, and yeah guys try to get in and out of shitcoins, since they are so smart and they think that they have it figured out or they will be able to get lucky or they have "insider information", but really largely a losing game full of distractions and nonsensical fantasies of getting rich quick.

Let me give you a bitcoin specific example.

What if you have a guy who is pretty consistent in his investing into bitcoin, and he decided that he was going to invest into bitcoin over two whole cycles, and he had invested into bitcoin over the past 8 years at $200 per week, which would have had been $83.6k invested over 8 years, and right now he would have about 10.347 BTC which have a spot price value of about $1 million (about 12x in profits) and a 200-WMA value of about $450k (about 5.4x in profits).. and surely either way, those are good returns, and you expect to be able to get returns better than that?

You think that you can beat those returns or that you need to beat those kinds of returns? Why get greedy? and bitcoin is not showing itself as being any worse investment right now as compared to what it was 8 years ago, even if some of the upside might not be as high as it was, yet bitcoin still has a lot of ongoing upward potential and remains amongst the best of investments (if not the best) currently available across the whole planet for anyone figuring out ways to source their BTC purchases, build their BTC stash size and hold through years, such as 4-10 years or more. When investing long term, we can consider upside and downside risks and/or benefits, and we can consider that the future is not guaranteed so we have to figure out our position size and our method in such a way to figure out whether our having had invested into bitcoin is likely to give us more options or not, and hopefully we don't screw up a good potential investment by fucking around and trying to trade it... but yeah, people can do what they like.

Whether this particular guy from my example has enough bitcoin or not or maybe he wants to keep accumulating bitcoin at this time, yet his having had built a bitcoin stash that is more than 10 BTC is in a pretty good place with the amount of capital that he had invested so far.

Quote from: Mayor of ogba on January 15, 2025, 12:43:00 PM

Quote from: Gooner0 on January 15, 2025, 07:57:04 AM

[edited out]

The example you showed above is totally different from what you are arguing about. The people who invested in bitcoin when the price was still at $60k didn't just wake up and invest in bitcoin, and all of a sudden the price surged to $100k. They had held their bitcoin for a long time before they were able to witness the $100k price. Bitcoin is not a pump-and-dump coin that you expect to get huge profit in a short term after investing your money in it. You have to hold your bitcoin for at least 4 years before you can see the profit you are talking about. And you shouldn't invest in bitcoin because you heard that someone made huge profits from it. You should invest in bitcoin at you own will, and before you invest in bitcoin, you should understand that bitcoin is volatile in nature and is not a quick way to get rich, so that when you start investing in bitcoin and the price drops, you will not panic and sell your bitcoin at a loss because you already know that is the nature of bitcoin, and with time it will increase again to the level where you will be in profit.

Not only do normies tend to sell too many bitcoin too soon, they also frequently fail/refuse to stay focused on consistently buying bitcoin over years and years, and surely it seems quite likely that if a guy is building up his bitcoin investment for years and years, then he is likely going to have more options, and does not have to get worked up about trying to time some up and down price waves or even worry himself about bitcoin volatility, even though sure bitcoin is quite likely going to continue to be volatile for many years to come, and so any person geting into bitcoin and staying in bitcoin likely has to figure the volatility into his management of his own systems of continuing to buy bitcoin and/or his psychological expectations about the value of his holdings changing based on ongoing expected changes (perhaps even inevitable changes) in bitcoin prices in the coming 5-20 years and further into the future.

It's true that many people get distracted by the idea of beating the market, but as you rightly pointed out, consistent long-term holding and accumulation of Bitcoin often yield the best results. Trading in and out based on market metrics like dominance or short-term trends often leads to losses for most. Bitcoin’s volatility can be tough, but staying patient and focused on long-term goals is key. The real power lies in understanding Bitcoin’s potential over years, not just focusing on short-term fluctuations.

Xun hu

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