Quote from: HalFinneysBrain on March 11, 2015, 09:27:29 PM

But for some reason, they aren't bullish now, and instead looking for wave V again? This makes no sense to me.

Is there something about Elliotwavers that makes them so bearish all the time? I remember looking at Robert Prechter's counts of Gold in the early to mid 200s, when he just stubbornly kept looking for a wave V down to $200 an oz, even while Gold kept rising and rising.

It is interesting that you have detected this bias. I think that you have picked up on a particular bias that the use of Elliot Waves suffers greatly, that is selection bias. I avoid the models for this reason, but certainly not because they are inherently biased, in fact I consider fractal models of the price as the closest species to accessing the actual underpinning mechanisms of price fluctuation.

I have recently explored much Number Theory which suggests that the complexity of the price graph is intrinsically similar to the complexity in, as instance, the Julia Set. I am far from any formulations of proof, but I am excited that this work may some day lead to a vindication of Elliot Waves in the absence of any other empirical verifications. It seems to me that much of quantitative finance is lacking in these approaches.

intighet

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