Quote from: jerfelix on July 29, 2013, 06:16:05 PM

Quote from: dooglus on July 29, 2013, 05:57:51 PM

Someone was asking in the chat how it's possible that the site-wide luck is still over 102% after so many bets, and requested a breakdown of luck-per-chance, so here it is:

Quote

0.0001% 0.0002 ( 2 / 1014500) 197.14%

102.59%

I'm only showing chances which have had 10k or more bets.

Before generating the list I said it was probably due to vlees and nimda both hitting 0.0001% about twice as quickly as expected, and that does appear to be the reason. 1 million of the total 40 million bets have an average luck of 200% each. Dilute that 40 times over and you get 102.5%. Nice and tidy result.

So the whole site's luck is still affected predominantly by a single lucky roll. If only one of the two of them had hit the 1-in-a-million, as expected, luck would be very close to 100%.

That explains it very well!

Quick! The site has been paying out long shots at twice the expected rate. Get in there and bet long shots everyone!

Thanks for producing this chart.

http://i.imgur.com/TzpxBbW.png

Hannah

Posts

Merits