Quote from: dansus021 on Today at 02:11:29 AM

Quote from: ImThour on Today at 12:19:10 AM

I won't lie, I saw this drop incoming, I sold near $50k's and bought back at $32k, then sold at $64k in Nov.
The chart pattern which was forming was double top with bearish RSI Divergence in which RSI is was going down, Price was going up.

Once it came towards $48k, I was able to see it forming another similar pattern which happened in 2018 that it will touch $22k.
So I bought at $21.5k for 50%, and DCAing the rest 50% throughout the year.

Wow well done, i think the 17.8 K is last dip and i hope so if the bitcoin price break that supports in 17.8K i don't know what i going to say but DCA is best at this point in range 20K range and wait for other confirmation

Compared to previous bear market cycles we are just starting to get into this one. I do not think $17.8k was, or is, the lowest point we will see.

Just some random ramblings to keep in the back of your mind, the 2017 peak was just shy of $20k and the last peak in late 2021 was $69k (lets call it $70k for our simple thought experiment.)

So the difference in peaks between the two last bull markets was on the order of $70k/$20k or about 3.5x.

The low between the peaks was around $3200 (Dec 2018). So if we use the same multiplier of 3.5x on the low, we would see a new low of roughly $11,200 this time around.

Of course this is all just guesswork, but it does help to keep history in mind before becoming too confident in any bottom predictions.

Myself I would be more comfortable placing buys once the price gets closer to the $11k area than the rather lofty $17.8k region. Another thought is since $10k is a major psychological level, we would perhaps test that if BTC does get down that far, so even $11k is probably a bit high to hope for a true bottom, perhaps we might see some dips down in the $9k's.

Anyway DCA is your friend, but I would start investing very lightly at what I consider these high ($17k) estimates of BTC's bottom.

Za1n

Posts

Merits