Quote from: mezzomix on June 11, 2013, 03:10:06 PM

Quote from: maqifrnswa on June 11, 2013, 10:21:06 AM

Those that kept their BFL preorders, or even made new orders, look likely to come out ahead over avalon batch 3.

No! I paid nealry 200 BTC for a Single SC in June 2012. There is almost no chance to get this money back so in the end BFL was a bad investment. The Avalon batch 3 was sold for 80 BTC (?) and nearly the same hashrate. Avalon already delivered this kind of miners while BFL is still in the prototype state with the singles. It's quite realistiv that an Avalon batch 3 will reach break-even. For the BFL single I see no chance. Unfortunately I ordered a single (and a bASIC) and not an Avalon so bitcoin mining is history for me before it even started.

This is such a lame bullshit statement and what I call "cherry picking" your circumstances. No matter what the outcome, you will ALWAYS be right because you are the type of customer that has to complain..

First off, lets set some clear facts.

In June 2012 BTC was in the neighborhood of 5-6.5$ per bitcoin. You paid 200BTC for your product.

When Avalon batch 3 came out for preorder, (March) bitcoins were anywhere between 35$ and 90$ (I could be "slightly" off on this so no nitpicking).

So would you rather have paid 200BTC @ 6$ a bitcoin? Or would you rather have paid 80BTC @ 35$ a bitcoin? Let's also turn the whole equation around. Lets say a month after you purchased your BFL device, bitcoins dropped to 1$ a coin and stayed there. If bitcoins were worth 1$, do you think Avalon would have sold a miner at 80BTC still? Would they even have sold a miner at all? If bitcoins were 1$ each, I can guarantee you people would not have made mining devices and if they did, no one would have purchased them for thousands of dollars unless the difficulty was so low that they made 200BTC PER DAY.

So with all of this said.. YOU would not be here today complaining about the 200BTC you never made back. YOU would be complaining that it will take forever to make back the 1200-1300$ it cost for you to buy the BFL device.

People like you, and there are plenty in this forum, like to mold their argument based on whatever makes them win instead of using common sense.

If you receive a 60GH/s device in the next month.. next 2 months.. next 6 months.. will you make your 200BTC? no.. That would be ridiculously greedy of you to moan about not making $20,000 back on your $1200 investment. But will you make your $1200 back? Yes. Will you make more than your $1200 back.. ABSOLUTELY. Unless bitcoin takes a nosedive to 5$ again, you will most CERTAINLY see a return on your investment in fiat.

I guess the appropriate answer would be.. would you rather have 200 bitcoins worth 6$ a piece that you originally invested, or would you rather have 58 (the amount you can mine in a month currently with 60GH/s) worth 100$ a piece?

Lets also see how much in fiat we are talking about from June 2012 (When you ordered) to October 2012 (when they said they would ship, and the prices at that time) to a month from now (estimating doubled difficulty as conservative number, and 100$ bitcoins). From the bitcoin calculator:

June 2012:

Difficulty Factor : 1,500,000
Hash Rate (mega-hashes / second) : 60,000
Exchange Rate ($/฿): 6.00

Coins Dollars
per Day ฿20.12 $120.70
per Week ฿140.81 $844.88
per Month ฿611.53 $3,669.21

October 2012: (Butterfly labs supposed shipping date)

Difficulty Factor : 3,000,000
Hash Rate (mega-hashes / second): 60,000
Exchange Rate ($/฿): 12.50

Coins Dollars
per Day ฿10.06 $125.73
per Week ฿70.41 $880.09
per Month ฿305.77 $3,822.09

July 2013: (Doubling the difficulty which is most likely not going to be this high in only 1 month)

Difficulty Factor : 30,000,000
Hash Rate (mega-hashes / second) : 60,000
Exchange Rate ($/฿) : 100.00

Coins Dollars
per Day ฿1.01 $100.58
per Week ฿7.04 $704.07
per Month ฿30.58 $3,057.67

Now that is at DOUBLE the difficulty next month. The next difficulty raise is estimated to be 17 million from 15. This happens every 2 weeks so the possibility of it getting to 30 million by even late July is still pretty slim unless a MASSIVE amount of miners hit the market this month.

I'd be happy with a 2 week ROI. And I know what people are going to say in response is, and here are my answers:

"BUT THIS IS ALL SPECULATION"
So is everything else in this thread. You can't complain about someone speculating if your argument is also pure speculation

"BUT I WANT MY BTC BACK!!"
This is just like the people demanding refunds in BTC. Ridiculous. If bitcoin crashed to 1$ a bitcoin, would you be ok with making 200BTC then? Only 200$ worth of your original 1299 spent? Is that what you consider a return on your investment?

"BUT BFL WON'T SHIP BY JULY, THEY NEVER WILL"
Still speculation. I'm willing to bet that a June 2012 order will most likely be seeing their shipment by next month. Now someone who ordered in June 2013? That is a whole other ballgame.

hexed

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