Quote from: no-ice-please on April 13, 2016, 05:50:41 PM

Quote from: ikonic1 on April 13, 2016, 04:42:15 PM

Thank you for your comments. Just a couple of questions.

Is there any point "churning" i.e. selling and buying yourself? Do people see volume in itself as useful?

Also, why do you think it is an "inexpensive coin". The price has now fallen to around 900. What, in your opinion, makes this particular coin undervalued?

Actually volume is such an important variable that it is the first thing "experienced" scammers would try to manipulate in order to pump a coin. Before altcoins existed there were conventional financial markets that could be manipulated for profit, but altcoins are such a wide open, lucrative field that this kind of thing is the norm now. The "average" trader even sees volume now intuitively.

Here is a common sense way a speculator would analyze volume,
1) Go to Coinmarketcap.com and click on "675 currencies" or whatever in the top left.
2) Click on the volume column to sort by that.
3) Look at the following rows, in order
a) Market cap. Go to the first mineable, unpremined coin with a low market cap, let's say < usd 100,000, which has greater than 40% increase in 24 hours and >100% in 7 days (looking at those columns)
b) if you go down this list now you will see primarily two kinds of coins. 1) Higher quality coins that are trending up, and 2) coins whose volume is fake in some sense, coins that are being pumped in preparation for a dump. Most are in the second category.
c) Keep in mind that there are a lot of automated programs being used. These try to make tiny profits on a vast number of trades, while churning volume.

So it kind of seems that even though volume is hard to decypher, you have to count it as an important variable.

As to Gapcoin specifically, here are some points to think about.

When the next crypto surge occurs, like happened in late 2013, people will be focusing on specific types of coins. There will be the "panic buying" mentality that creates chaos in all coins, but smarter stable long term money will be more disciplined than in 2013.

Most likely the money that enters cryptos will be directed by journalists opinions. Somebody will write an article about cryptos that mentions some coin in a positive way and a bunch of people will try to buy $40,000 worth of that coin even though only $2,000 worth is for sale, and at some point this dynamic will create a publicity storm.

So pretty soon any coin is going to look cheap. But you have to estimate, based on what you know about society etc, which coins are likely to be better off after the next surge relative to other coins. It's my guess, only a guess, that Gapcoin will do quite well. Market cap right now $25,000. So somebody comes along and wants to buy $200,000 worth what happens? We'll see.

I do understand that volume is important. I have a small position in a coin which has virtually zero volume. I also think that the potential for buy orders is important. Obviously, the price may rise based on a few buys (considering the lack of volume) but if no-one wants to buy unless the price is 20,000 below the current price, it's not so helpful.

In terms of volume, does it need to be based on news? For example does GAP need to have something positive happen for the price to rise?

ikonic1

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