Quote from: ONM on November 15, 2016, 07:51:52 AM

Quote from: JackpotRacer on November 15, 2016, 07:41:38 AM

lets take the 10k bits bet as an example
https://www.moneypot.com/bets/640260805

lets do the math or better you do it

Probability to hit the JP is 0.0003998866304755211% equals to a chance to hit the JP 1 in 250 070 bets

player will hit JP in average once in 250 070 bets

JP is wager (10k bits) x 2 000 = 20 BTC

now the most important part is (IMO) the math 10 000 wager x 250 070 = ?

and then please do the math and find the result for 2% HE

I get 2% HE is ~50 BTC (50014000) expected profit for app owner and MP/Investors.

split is 50% so app owner gets ~ 25 BTC and MP/Investors get 25 BTC

MP/Investors pay out the 20 BTC JP so it is still +EV

from players view it is that he did a nice turnover of 10 000 bits wager x 250 070 = ? with 2% HE and get back in average 20 BTC JP

please correct me if I am wrong

imo a very confusing JP set up and we will try to find another JP for our sweeper

You're forgetting about the ~96% of the time that the player wins 125 bits.

ya so actually it takes less amount to hit the jackpot . Owner should take care of all this and end this confusion , he should mention the probability of hitting the jackpot and how many bets once the jackpot is hit . although the HE keeps on changing , idk why . yesterday i bet on doubloon , it was 1.7% HE , today its 2% .

Karat

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