Quote from: Azael on November 23, 2016, 03:44:12 PM

I believe that smart contracts is a strong trend but were accompanied with the misconception that they were unbreakable and once this misconception became undeniable the bubble bust.

Feedback loops work in both directions but downtrends have a tendency towards equilibrium and this means that if developments remain insignificant then no new bubble will begin as smart contracts are still the prevailing crypto trend despite market movements.

However, bearish conceptions and misconceptions about HFs with ETH/C dominates the market participants perceptions which means it will get much worse as it becomes reinforced by new HFs.

The first ETH HF showed how vulnerable investors are to developers of altcoin projects as they are insignificant to the process of HF despite being the owners.

Developers apply their technological perspective to markets and blame speculators for movements, but speculators see a perceived misconception they can profit off in either direction.

The way the ETH/C downtrend ends is by regulation of its HFs otherwise the very core propositions of smart contracts and altcoin projects remain susceptible to confidence games thus unstable markets.

And with developers of ETH/C applying their technological perspective that a HF is always for the good of everybody to markets and the market is wrong when they think so, a short position in ETH/C prior to HFs are sound as long as this remains true and the aforementioned conditions remain unchanged.

The prior-to-HFs makes this trade idiot-proof with the exception if Bitcoin declines during which the short position is taken so when to take the position should relate to risk appetite and understanding of Bitcoin markets.

A stable" Bitcoin market would reveal if my hypothesis is true or false when applied to ETH/C markets but a surging or declining Bitcoin market would not.

Rumours on a HF because of the Geth consensus flaw caused ETH/C to drop double digits in percentages the same day it occured. False positive? Possible and we'll see when a HF occurs. There will be different paces by planned vs unplanned HFs but under current conditions of HFs both are predicted bad for price by this hypothesis.

Interestingly if ETH were to become the number one cryptocurrency the accepted fundamentals of cryptocurrency would change. Did you think about that? A lot of investment into ETH would alter the perception of totalitarian HFs into being regarded as 'true'.

Azael

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