Quote from: dooglus on April 03, 2013, 01:52:59 AM

Over the whole lifetime of the game so far the profit has been around 2.042% before you take transaction fees into account, and 1.952% after deducting transaction fees.

It is mathematically 'supposed' to be 1.9% before subtracting transaction fees, so they're doing better than expected.

I don't remember the details, but the house edge has been adjusted a couple of times. Not recently, mind you. I think the most recent adjustment was taking the edge down from 2.0% to 1.9% when a clone site appeared which was offering a lower house edge. It looked like Erik's way of saying "we can afford to out-compete you so don't even try". I think before that, the house edge may have been lower than 1.9%, but I really don't remember for sure.

Your question is a little confusing. The site pays out 1.9% less than true odds. So in the long run you lose 1.9% of everything you bet. Every game is effectively random, so you can't say "the profit will be 1.9% over 3 months". You can't say for certain that the profit will ever go back down to 1.9% from its current level. All we can say is that the average of the results obtained from a large number of trials should be close to the expected value, and will tend to become closer as more trials are performed.

Perhaps I should have asked instead, how many trials would it take to theoretically reach 1.9% with a 95% confidence interval?

Picklee

Posts

Merits