Hi all
I own no btc but mainly XRP and a few other cryptos, and these represent, last time I checked about 3% of my investment money (most in index stocks/bonds with some gold)

I was reading the old bitcoin mailing list archives and saw this from 2009

https://sourceforge.net/p/bitcoin/mailman/bitcoin-list/?viewmonth=200901

As an amusing thought experiment, imagine that Bitcoin is successful and
becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world. Then the
total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all
the wealth in the world. Current estimates of total worldwide household
wealth that I have found range from $100 trillion to $300 trillion. With
20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million.

So the possibility of generating coins today with a few cents of compute
time may be quite a good bet, with a payoff of something like 100 million
to 1! Even if the odds of Bitcoin succeeding to this degree are slim,
are they really 100 million to one against? Something to think about...

Now in 2020 we know btc can never have all the worlds finance on it because it can only do 7 tx per second or some other very low amount (visa alone does 1700 tx per second) so we can assume the $10 mil per coin price prediction is wrong (apparently the worlds economy is now over 1 quadrillion (1000 trillion) but lets just stick with that 100-300 range that got the above poster the 10 mil answer).

So the question is realistically how high can bitcoin go?
How much money do retail investors have left to put into it?
How much money are institutional investors likely to put into it in the future?
I read bitcoin miners sell almost 100% of their coins so there has to be an influx of new money from somewhere.

For the price of btc to double (55k usd to 110k usd) it has to go from its current market cap of USD 1 trillion to USD 2 trillion. Then to double again (110k usd to 220k usd) it needs a 4 trillion market cap. Where is all this money coming from?

The people in 2021 saying btc will go to 10 mil or 100 mil etc what mathematics are they basing their predictions on? Or are they just making numbers up?

I don't know the answers to these questions but it seems one day at least the buyers will have to run out and btc drops massively maybe to 0.

Food for thought.

thestupidfool

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