Quote from: JasonFC on September 30, 2019, 12:32:42 AM

Quote from: RHavar on September 29, 2019, 09:07:10 PM

Quote from: JasonFC on September 29, 2019, 08:41:50 PM

In terms of absolute bankroll growth, I'm sure yours excels, but in terms of percentage growth, maybe not. bustabit remains a great investment, but for smaller fish looking for a growth opportunity, bustabit has become 50% less attractive.

Hmm, I don't think that's the way investors look at it -- or at least not how I do.

When I look at a bankroll investment, I try calculate if I invest X ... what is my expected return? What is the expected variance? And how would I (roughly) quantify the counter-party risk (i.e. malicious or screw up sort of problems).

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So trying to do rough calculations against BaB, I'd eye-ball the average volume as 400 BTC/day, which would give investors (after commission) an expected 730 BTC per year. 1 BTC would buy you ~0.015279% of the bankroll, so an investment has a rough expected return of 11.15% a year?

So it's considerably worse than yesterday (which was double that) and even less than when i originally invested (I was estimating 30-40% p.a. returns) but counter-party risk is the real thing that scares me (i.e. is the real reason I have only invested a small fraction of my bitcoin in the bankroll and not the whole thing).

I also think all the smart investors appreciate the importance of diversification (especially in something ultra-high-risk like bitcoin-casino-bankrolling) so I imagine it's going to more just be an issue of changing how much they invest, as opposed to investing or not investing.

The EV compared to other sites is now lower, and you're right in that it comes with a lot of added security, trust, and peace of mind. devans is risking little to nothing (he loses nothing when players win, but takes 50% of the profit when players lose). At this point in time, I think that trade-off is worth it. The returns may not be excellent (10% a month is not that far from less risky cryptocurreny lending sites) but it's worth the name that bustabit has made for itself.

That being said, I don't think this will last long. I think as other casinos such as EtherCrash develop names for themselves and keep their EV attractive, investing in bustabit wouldn't remain the smartest idea. Another point to note is that investing in bustabit for most people has now become a lot less risky (judging by the percentage that the average investor will acquire and the recent monthly bankroll growth). That doesn't make it inherently bad, but it has started to fit a different investing profile, and not one usually associated the the risk of a casino bankroll. I personally am more of a risk taker, and when I invest in casino bankrolls, I look for moderate risks and a commensurate reward. I don't think this (albeit low-risk) investment is worth it if I get only half the reward (regardless of the safety aspect).

Well said. As someone who has a decent % of the bankroll I am very disappointed.

A also dislike that the changes were made immediately. I think users should have been given a heads up and time to decide if they wanna invest under the new terms or not.
If I understand the new terms correctly the fee is also over 50% unless you withdraw from the bankroll at an all time high.

I will analyse other casinos and see how high the EV is there.

juzam1337

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