Quote from: PublicP2poolNode on March 14, 2018, 09:42:51 PM

Quote from: -Sinner- on March 14, 2018, 10:55:02 AM

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Quote from: -Sinner- on March 13, 2018, 10:08:59 AM

Quote from: foodstamps on March 13, 2018, 07:56:36 AM

Quote from: Larion94 on March 10, 2018, 04:20:03 PM

Quote from: foodstamps on March 10, 2018, 01:48:35 PM

Quote from: PublicP2poolNode on March 08, 2018, 11:44:43 PM

Looking at the rewards claimed so far from QVOLTA, took me an hour to come up with this lol

https://etherscan.io/address/0x627e41794c171d51e9f3def30df33c07e6ff4b54#tokentxns

and then comparing to the forecasts made on wings.ai by searching for the addresses which claimed rewards, here is what I have came up with so far... any reward under 1000QVT i didnt spend the time to look at.

forecasted QVOLTA woud raise:   wings locked in forecast:   QVT Rewarded   USD Price
3500 ETH      300     5763     $2,189
3500 ETH     2506     40343     $15,330
3000 ETH     222,222     83,768     $31,831
5000 ETH     25,346     9,988     $3,795
2950 ETH     3408     1,275     $484

Most people were too far off to get a reward. For those that did, they were pretty fantastic!

For those who are not aware, how it works, you stake your wings, and forecast how much an project will be able to raise, each project pays to be evaluated, if your forecast is good, you get paid and keep your wings.

If your forecast is bad, you get little to no rewards, but you keep your wings, and can use them to forecast on the next evaluation, and the next, and the next. but, you don't ever lose Wings for being wrong

I believe that for the project Qvolta correctly forecasters were awarded awards. Indeed, most forecasters were very far from the correct forecast.
I wait for the next awards.

I agree with you, but I think in the very first payments the formula was slightly better than now.
By the way, for which project will the next payment?

I think the formula was similar. Just in the first payments, many forecasters predicted quite accurately. And in the latest forecasts, most were wrong.
I do not know what forecast the next award will be, but the developers promised this week.

Unfortunately the reward formula is a lot different than before.. Now only the people that forecast rrally near earn a lot, and all other people earn zero. I really don't like this formula cause everyone pays for gas and spend time for forecast.
I stopped to forecast and now i m only waiting all old rewards.

Why those forecasters who made a mistake (Qvolta - correct forecast 3850. Why should the award be received by those who put it much higher than this value? Those who put above 8000, 9000, 10000 eth) should receive a reward? But I agree with the fact that in the field of award distribution there is a strong difference between a number of worthwhile predictions.

Cause trying to forecast the exact number is just pure luck. 2000 eth is not different from 12000 if the right forecast was 5/6k.
Also people who forecast 15/20k pay gas, so why not give to anyone a fixed rate airdrop? Doing this no sense formula rewarda, almost everyone will stop to forecast cause they receive nothing.

You don't have to be exact. The formula is quite complex. But, lets say a project raises 20K eth, most likely everyone who guessed between 10K and 30K will receive a reward. Unless, lets say 95% guessed 20K and the result was 20K, and you guessed 10K, then if you do get a reward, it would be very small, even with alot of wings.

On Qvolta only about 19 people were within 50% lower or 50% higher than the actual result. Basically everyone forecasted 14K eth and they only raised 3800 eth, so everyone was almost 400% off.

sorry if you feel you should be rewarded, maybe next time, everyone else will be lining up their forecasts on a project raising their hardcap, but you, dont think so, and then when your right, and EVERYONE else was 400% off, then you'll have a nice big fat payday like these guys did.

By the way, someone else just claimed a reward for forecasting on Qvolta, and I did some research for you all.

From: 0x8f6b2d...
Expected: 4000 ETH
Wings: 1000 WINGS
Reward: 33,592 QVT
Todays value: $11,948

very interesting, tough atm it feels more like a game of bingo than any form of crowd intelligence, ofc the crowd is very far from info atm.
still hope they will shift the project more in a way where u get rewarded on researching the project instead of guessing a number right, imo how the system works now its just pure luck

tehMoonwalker

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