Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on January 11, 2015, 11:59:09 PM

Quote from: rpietila on January 11, 2015, 09:02:41 PM

Quote from: Anotheranonlol on January 11, 2015, 07:32:08 PM

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I recently had a similar exercise with the % cumulative probability that Monero is "dead" by a certain day. In 25% probability it was dead in 3 months (this was done in early Dec afair), in 50% probability it was dead in 18 months, and 75% was not reached at all, in other words, I estimated that it would continue to have at least approximately the current valuation perpetually.

Now, I still don't understand what you are trying to prove. With scenario analysis you only lose big if you do not take into account something that could happen, but it does happen.

When it comes to passive investing, this kind of analysis is beneficial.
However, if Monero will die or live depends on the community if we decide to let it live or die.
Tech problems are challenges. Challenges need to be overcome.
Financial problems (finding merchants, creating economy etc) are challenges. Challenges need to be overcome.
Your project Crypto Kingdom is something that has benefitted the community. I would encourage all those who are able to perform such projects, to perform them.
Not to focus much on probabilities of loosing (which has also its place in prudent way of investing).

Economically also the more coins are stored in cold storages "for ever", the more there is scarcity. If there is demand, the scarcity drives the price to extreme highs.
In case of bitcoin, roughly 99,5 % of the coins are deep frozen, this can be seen in exchanges: The marketcap is 4 billion usd and the daily trading volume is "only" around 20 million usd.

The only way Monero can achieve success is to have people willing to buy and store 99,5 of the emission. The rest is for using it "in real life". Services makes a coin a bit more attractive than a coin that do not pay anything what so ever, and the hoarding gives the high marketcap for the coin.

IMO, Monero has basically 2 alternatives:

1) It will have parties that are willing to sink money and hoard the coin and therefore give for Her high marketcap and value. Estimated pricing in this scenario > 1 btc
2) Monero will not have people hoarding the most coins and it will eventually get dumped and the estimated pricing in this case is ~ 0.00 BTC.

For me it is hard to see a scenario that is somewhere between. I am not saying it doesn't exist but for me it is hard to see. The between-scenario perhaps is based on thought of Monero getting some share of world trade being a niche coin.

I have following questions:
What are the issues that makes Monero not to be # 1 Crypto? How can we solve those issues?

Bitcoin is not that good. IMO opinion the only advantage bitcoin has is a community consisting even billionaires/millionaires who are able to hold coins - and they do not even care the price of bitcoin since they have so awfully lot of money from other sources.

High marketcap also means people do not need to sell many Moneros for satisfying their basic needs and therefore it will suck the dumping pressure.

My 0.02 XMR.

The biggest reason why Monero cannot and will not be the #1 crypto is because it is developed to be 100% anonymous and untraceable. Lawmakers and regulators will not allow something like that to have widespread mainstream use.