Also, I will keep the bet such that it doesn't end before the target date or a default, and add a clause against payout-rename tricks and the likes for the unlikely case he can still push in BTC from wherever and is aiming for the sky of Bitcoin Ponzis.
Doesn't this contradict the note below?
So, just to make this clear, I can do a bet on default for a time like End-2013 or worse, and that's OK. 1:1 bet on you defaulting?
This sounds doable. I don't see how it makes any sense for you, but that's not my problem, is it? I'll just have to ask around for some third parties.
Right but you must add that if BS&T makes it public (at anytime prior to the deadline) that it's closed and all coins were returned and confirmed I win the bet.