Quote from: Chaang Noi (Goat) ช้างน้อย on July 06, 2012, 09:45:41 AM

I am very pleased that Vandroiy is not going to back down:)

Did you really think we would do that, after an enormous campaign and nanotube ensuring that on error, all the funds go to charity? This is am important point: even if we miss our estimate and there's a catastrophe, my name should be redeemed at all times -- either I'm donating to charity, or there was a default and everyone must shut up. All effect on the Ponzi is locking down 5k and a little publicity he could get for that price anyway.

Why in the world would I not accept? Because you track stolen funds to me in the block chain? It's been discussed, returning them holds way too much danger of Pirateat40 screwing with bookkeeping, also it would be nuts if the community were to punish betting against a Ponzi after the fact -- the funds may be stolen, but they hedge the risk we're taking now. People should have used their brain before this is the last way out.

Either way, we can cheaply get a warranty that either we do not lose money or there is a hard time-limit on a Ponzi operation. It's perfect! All we want, pretty much no matter what happens. This ends our problem with the situation conclusively.

It's win-win-win. Even the unlikely scenarios are no catastrophe, and each one should make this place more civilized.

ribuck, Vladimir: it goes to charity! Whatever.

Edit: I can prove he can't strengthen the Ponzi with this financially or in terms of timing, and I'm long lost at psychology, so hell knows about that. Anyway, this bet should not help the Ponzi in terms of funds. Even if I lose, all that happens from his point of view is 5k being locked up. He can't run in Ponzi mode even at +100% pa or I can profit from him regardless. He'd have to go down to Madoff-style, which is insane given his current position.

Quote from: bitdragon on July 06, 2012, 10:06:32 AM

Quote from: Vandroiy on July 06, 2012, 09:40:58 AM

Also, I will keep the bet such that it doesn't end before the target date or a default, and add a clause against payout-rename tricks and the likes for the unlikely case he can still push in BTC from wherever and is aiming for the sky of Bitcoin Ponzis.

Doesn't this contradict (...)

Yes, this is something Pirateat40 still has to agree on. If he is able to shut down and wait until the deadline, yes I am fine with the donation then. However, if he just builds some temporary shutdown, then continues with his name/company/reputation in a similar operation and defaults with that before the deadline, I still win.

I hope it's understandable that a real Ponzi pro might be able to obtain funds somewhere that can temporarily pay out people or might be able to trick large depositors into faking a temporary shutdown. Bitcoins don't go bad, there will still be the need for charity later on, I don't see a reason to hurry.