Quote from: exocytosis on January 14, 2015, 12:23:13 AM

Quote from: sgbett on January 14, 2015, 12:20:31 AM

3. I haven't the slightest idea, but the price in a month isn't really a concern. Just as the price in the last year hasn't been. I'm on a 10-20 year outlook. It either succeeds or it fails. I'm not here to trade. If I wanted to lose money then I could easily do so on forex markets, or I've found spread betting to be even more efficacious!

Didn't you recently predict $570k bitcoins sometime later in 2015 though? Or was it 700k?

560k, 14 months from the post date 27/9/14

I predected that in a mass adoption scenario we would see swings of an order of magnitude that are currently incomprehensible.

The thread title was clickbait. The body of the post explains the actual figure isn't an accurate prediction. I was speculating on how a mass adoption scenario might unfold and what the price action would be. I can pretty much guarantee I'm wrong on the specifics. Not because bitcoin is going to zero, but because 580,000 is just one number. There are so many other numbers!

If you imagine for a second that this selloff is the antithesis to the prior bubble. That it too eventually comes to an end. That in actual fact BTC marches on. In that scenario how do we get from a few billions market cap to capturing a big chunk of online remittance.

I'm not saying it *will* happen, but if it does, *how* will it happen?

Predictable straight line increase, or a sickeningly volatile lurching to and fro between moon and doom?