Quote from: BTCtrader71 on January 14, 2015, 01:49:40 AM

Ed do you realistically think that bitcoin could possibly settle over the next, let's say 20 years, of modest growth with average 5-10% growth per year? How do you respond to the argument that in 20-30 years, it is highly likely that we will have seen one of two outcomes play out: either LOTS of people use it, or virtually NOBODY uses it because something better has come along. Why on earth do you assume that some in-between outcome is likely, or even desired? Why do you assume bitcoin should behave like any other investment? You can't even calculate a P/E ratio.

Indeed. That's about the time scale involved to judge whether bitcoin is a success or a failure.
This is why I put some coins aside for the very long time. I see them as a lottery ticket I bought of which the drawing is 20 years from now or so. High chance it will be worth nothing, small chance that it will be worth a lot. That's in the nature of lottery tickets.

The short term price swings on the scale of a few years have not much to do with it.

Of course, I could start trading, and "sell high and buy low" but I'm no good at that, and it takes too much time and attention. Moreover, I believe that the bitcoin price is fundamentally unpredictable as it is determined mainly by belief (the real fundamentals of bitcoin are now in the single or double digits as a currency). Belief is highly volatile.

If it goes to zero, too bad, that's what happens with lottery tickets. You expect this. But if it goes to the moon (in 20-30 years from now), I have a great retirement :-)