Quote from: rpietila on January 14, 2015, 08:02:35 AM

Quote from: nanobrain on January 14, 2015, 07:45:25 AM

I'm just dying to hear what Risto makes of this (Stamp 155 and falling).

Quote from: rpietila on August 15, 2014, 01:01:00 PM

Blockchain, as a technology, is indestructible. A reasonable starting point is to understand that crypto is here to stay, and no laws or wars can stop it. Any individual cryptocoin, Bitcoin included, has challenges particular to it, and local laws and wars may prove detrimental to individuals' wealth, as well as life.

People can only learn more about Bitcoin, unlearning is not possible. With any technology, invention or innovation, there is an adoption curve that is the aggregate of all the people's individual propensities of learning about a new thing, deciding to use it, trying it, and amplifying their usage to significant levels. On average, the process from first hearing about something, to trying it, takes 2 years. From trying to actual adoption, we might add 1 more year.

The current number of Bitcoin owners is likely a paltry 1-2 million. Even smaller is the number of people who actively use Bitcoin in their life. The first number, at least, has not grown significantly in 2014. Enthusiasm has given way to apathy, evidenced by both price and volume of trades lagging far behind their highs.

Meanwhile, the 2 years average delay from first hearing to first trial, is slowly becoming fulfilled in hundreds of millions of people. There were millions who heard about the bubble in 2011, and their "2 years" started counting. Not enough of them were ready to buy in 2012, which was still a year of slow price appreciation. But in 2013, the great advances were made by the people who had had 2 years to ensure themselves that it was not a fly-by-night. In 2012, the global media coverage about Bitcoin was tiny, but in 2013 all changed. In two years, we are talking about 100x more people in the pipeline of becoming Bitcoin owners.

This gives rise to the exponential trendline. There is only one way to draw a trendline with the best R^2 fit (follows from the fact that goodness-of-fit is a universal criterion), and it is shown here. The number of Bitcoin users is so small at 1-2 million that the trendline should stay exponential 2 more orders of magnitude minimum.

An added reason is that because Bitcoin is money, and the exponential trendline means exponential gains for everyone involved, it makes sense to speculate and buy a large number of bitcoins instead of the fair share. (The fair share assuming worldwide adoption is BTC0.002 and assuming that only the elite of 3% world's richest and most connected buy it, BTC0.07.)

An increasing number of people are already ready to buy bitcoins. Banks, ETF's, private services, etc. have the infrastructure ready for launch. Both are waiting. Bitcoin holders are anxious, but as long as their anxiety results in them selling more bitcoins to the deep-pocket investors, the wait continues. In 2012 it continued quite long, with price going up only a little (more than 100% though).

Hearing about Bitcoin is the start of your Bitcoin pregnancy. Of these pregnancies, not all perhaps result in a healthy baby (adopting Bitcoin as your home currency), but luckily here, the time is not limited to 9 months. The average with those who currently are power users may have been 3 years (or less, since the delay is shorter with people with the early adopter mindset), but for others it may be 5 years. Miscarriages happen often, but the reverse-miscarriage is also a very typical occurrence.

We have a world-record number of Bitcoin pregnancies going on now, and hardly any births for several months already. I believe that the laws of nature and mathematics will take care that the babies will be seen in increasing numbers.

The trendline shows how much behind we are currently. The price shows the daily birth rate. I am writing this from a castle that I bought with money earned by trading Bitcoin based on the very premise I have explained to you here.

I believe that the next one might carry us north of $10,000. The longer time we spend here, the more explosive it gets. The supermove from $2 to $266 (133x price appreciation) took 17 months. Extrapolate that with the starting point of $340 in 2014-4-11.

You read it, right?

You understood it?

You can say that something in the last 5 months has disproven something that I have claimed in it?

If the answer is NO, NO, NO, please do not post again. This is a self-moderated thread for a reason.

Before replying, read it once again. It is one of the good posts among my 1000+ existing.

PS. I have seen both of the other big exchanges hitting lower values. It only happens when you are in risk of losing your money (which happened re: MtGox). Don't want to go there again. Even if Stamp hits $0, I am only buying OTC.

Risto,
Glad to see you managed to get the 'castle' into your response, although I think many here would argue it is actually a manor - castle's tend by definition to be built of stone and have turrets but I digress.

For all these pregnancies you speak of there has been some pretty high profile abortions, miscarriages, SIDS and infanticides, which unfortunately tend to hog headlines far more than pregnancies (which are, lets face it, ten a penny in the real world).

So, we return to perceptions and Jorge's argument that 'new blood' ie new markets (new buyers) are needed. China is falling away, the mainstream in the West thinks BTC is a bit of joke after the last 12 months after the (continuing) run of disasters, frauds and robberies. So, where are these new buyers coming from?

Perhaps we could get the 'man in the street' interested? But wait, you don't use exchanges, you buy OTC. This sounds like the sort of privileged two tier system I thought BTC was going to eradicate. Reading this sort of attitude I can imagine the how the 'man in the street' may feel. (I posted the quote from Animal Farm above because I think you should reread it.)

And what of the miners, who are switching off and calling it a day -- doesn't that threaten the 'indestructible' network?

I popped into the forum to see what was happening and saw that you were "calling the bottom" so assumed this involved some numbers, clearly not. I recall 12 months back you were calling the next bull run as being in May (then Aug, Sept, Nov etc) in between which you unsuccessfully predicted a range of 'bottoms', so your record (I'm sure you are aware) is a bit tarnished at this point. I really don't care, forgive you your mistakes and respect your right to make as many predictions as you want.

But please, if you love BTC so much, realise perhaps your behaviour may be actually causing some of the PR issues we encounter.