Quote from: SmoothCurves on January 15, 2015, 07:19:48 PM

Quote from: jl2012 on January 15, 2015, 02:33:22 PM

Quote from: Biodom on January 15, 2015, 03:04:02 AM

Quote from: jl2012 on January 14, 2015, 04:22:18 AM

Just a quick update: it's about -1.985 now, while the all-time-low was -2.23. Still not in uncharted area. To break the ATL, the VWAP has to go below $173 today.

(This is based on bitfinex data as bitcoincharts.com has stopped reporting bitstamp data since the hack)

according to the OP formula calc, it went to -2.38 (new record) when BTC was $155 briefly. Right now -2.11 (at BTC=$203).
I will wait for the double dip and if we will not go below $155, it might be a time for a longterm buy.
Or not.

Please note that the analysis is based on daily VWAP, not instantaneous minimum/maximum price.

What price would a +1.5 be?

it depends how fast it will go up, but if 2011-2013 was to repeat itself, which I don't expect, AND this trend sustaining itself (a major doubt as well), then probably at least roughly X100-125 from the bottom (see previous lows and highs) or to ~$19,000-20,000. I am not sure that we won't double dip to establish the bottom within <=1mo, but btc does not have to follow the trend as depicted here, but I wish that it will.