They have been trying to do this since 2012 and still haven't moved further along. Why would it change this year? The hoops to jump through are many, and the actual info (let alone positive info) are few and far between. It could happen, but don't base 20% of your annual prediction on this yet unknown.
Another thing, there is no proof that they will ever buy another Bitcoin for the fund. The net inflow would be to the ETF with the possibility of a bit of overflow into the actual underlying asset. I'm sure they will want to recoup some of their costs incurred over the last 2+ years, trying to make this a reality.
Given they are still 10x up on their initial investment of 100,000 coins I don't think costs are a major problem.
I thought their buy in price is around $200?
Not a chance! They did most of their buying between $5 and $15.
@inca, this is true, so maybe I'm wrong about them needing to recoup, but it doesn't change any of the rest of my statement.
100,000 coins at 200 dollars is a cap of twenty million dollars. Peanuts compared to the multi trillion dollar capital pool excluded from investing in btc.
It does allow them to sell out. But they could have drip fed their holdings easily before now at much higher prices.
If ever approved it would be insanely bullish and lead to major volatility IMO.